The fantasy crew tries to peg the top 15 picks and predict breakouts from later picks.
We know from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster that since 2004, there is a 36 percent success rate in the ADP projecting the top 15. The most in any one year is seven of 15; the least is four. With that in mind, I challenged the fantasy team to try to guess the top 15. In addition to their stab at the top 15, I had them give their answers on the following:
Robinson Cano is gone, but the Yankees have added intriguing fantasy options in Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann.
This preview’s first incarnation was dramatically different from its second, which in turn has been torn down and rebuilt from the ground up. The original draft came after the signing of Brian McCann, but before those of Jacoby Ellsbury and Kelly Johnson. Thanks to a change in schedule though, we’re coming back to you after the departure of Robinson Cano and with the additions of Carlos Beltran and Hiroki Kuroda. In this third iteration, there is plenty of fantasy goodness to be had.
While a greatly diminished Yankee lineup managed to produce a valiant playoff run, these recent reinforcements should make them more formidable going forward. There are still flaws with the Yankees, notably in the rotation, at second base and at third base, but these new signings will make plenty of noise (and fantasy value) all the same. While there will be a Cano-sized hole in this lineup, this will still be an explosive offense thanks to the additions of Beltran, Ellsbury, and McCann. Health is going to be the key ingredient to the Yankees season, as they continue to approach talent like a connoisseur approaches cheese or wine, where older is better.
Pittsburgh looks at Loney, and the Red Sox search for an Ellsbury substitute.
Pirates prefer James Loney among available first basemen
If general manager Neal Huntington could have his pick of the first-base litter at a reasonable cost, rival clubs believe they know who he would choose. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweeted on Wednesday that teams that have been in contact with the Pirates have come away thinking that Loney, who spent the 2013 season with the Rays, is the apple of Huntington’s eye.
A look at fantasy impact of every significant transaction consummated on Tuesday.
After one of the craziest transaction days in recent memory, the fantasy team (literally, it took nearly the entire team given the short notice) went through all 10 transactions with fantasy implications to see who gained and lost value in the last 24 hours. A longer introduction than that is not necessary—let’s get straight to what you came here to read.
A look back at the junior circuit bats who rewarded their fantasy owners and those who cost them last season.
Why look back?
This question is typically asked in philosophical or self help circles, with the answer typically being that we should never look back and should always focus on what lies ahead, not behind. Generally speaking, this isn’t bad advice. If you get too bogged down in what happened yesterday, you’ll miss out on opportunities in the present.
A league-wide decrease in stolen bases has left some fantasy owners, like Paul, scrambling for help in that category.
I’m not big on mantras. Catchphrases are way cooler. But if there is one mantra/axiom/adage/proverb I espoused this draft season, it was, “Focus on power, there is tons of speed available in smaller chunks.” In 2012, there were 1.33 steals per game. That was down slightly from 2011’s 1.35, but both were up markedly from the 1.22 that held steady from 2009 through 2010. In 2011-2012, there were about 300 more steals in the league than there were in 2009-2010. Plus, they were more evenly distributed.
The 2009 season saw Jacoby Ellsbury lead baseball with 70 stolen bases, and Juan Pierre was just two off of that mark when he led the majors the following year. Michael Bourn and Carl Crawford joined Ellsbury at the top with 61 and 60, respectively, in 2009, before dropping to a trio of 42s (Nyjer Morgan, B.J. Upton, and Matt Kemp). Pierre was the lone member of the 60-steal club in 2010, but Bourn (52) and Rajai Davis (50) were still great, followed by Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner at 47, and then another trio of 42s (Upton again, Ichiro, and Chone Figgins) bringing up the rear of the 40-plus club.
A closer look at the impending free agents who have the most riding on a return to form or a return to health in 2013.
Before last season, no one would have predicted that fragile White Sox starter Jake Peavy would earn a bigger contract at the end of the year than Angels workhorse Dan Haren. Peavy, entering his age-31 season, was coming off three injury-plagued and ineffective seasons in which he’d thrown a combined 320 1/3 innings with an above-league average ERA; Haren, also entering his age-31 season, was coming off his seventh consecutive 200-plus-inning campaign, having led the AL in starts and strikeout-to-walk ratio and finished seventh in Cy Young voting the season before.
But 2012 proved pivotal in determining the size of the contract that each impending free agent could command. Peavy picked the perfect time to find his form, avoiding the DL, topping 200 innings, and making the All-Star team for the first time since 2007. Haren had back problems and saw his sinker lose speed and his stats decline across the board. As a reward for his resurgence, Peavy got a two-year, $29 million extension from the Sox, while Haren had to settle for a one-year deal with the Nats at a slightly lower annual value.