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Articles Tagged Hot Stove 

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12-17

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2

Daisy Cutter: The Value of Five-Plus Players
by
Sahadev Sharma

12-16

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1

Rumor Roundup: It's Hard To Make Dan Haren Happy
by
Daniel Rathman

12-15

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0

Rumor Roundup: The Slugging Korean Shortstop, Or Perhaps Non-Slugging Third Baseman
by
Daniel Rathman

12-15

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9

Prospectus Feature: The Surprising Math Teams Use to Value a Compensation Pick
by
Jeff Quinton

12-15

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9

Transaction Analysis: Melky Laughs Last
by
Sahadev Sharma and Wilson Karaman

12-12

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15

Transaction Analysis: All the Fantasy Angles
by
J.P. Breen, Mike Gianella, Wilson Karaman, Ben Carsley and Nick Shlain

12-12

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1

Rumor Roundup: Remember James Shields?
by
Daniel Rathman

12-11

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4

Rumor Roundup: Yoenis Cespedes Is Always Good, Fit
by
Daniel Rathman

12-11

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1

Transaction Analysis: League-Worst Bullpen No More
by
R.J. Anderson

12-10

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5

Transaction Analysis: The Pittsburgh Pounce
by
Andrew Koo

12-10

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1

Rumor Roundup: A Dayton Moore-Atlanta Connection?
by
Daniel Rathman

12-09

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5

Transaction Analysis: Moss Gathered
by
R.J. Anderson, Craig Goldstein and Mauricio Rubio

12-08

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5

Rumor Roundup: Interested Teams Are Way In On Chen
by
Daniel Rathman

12-05

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1

Rumor Roundup: The Least Likely Melky Cabrera Suitor
by
Daniel Rathman

12-05

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5

Transaction Analysis: The Mariners Get Happy
by
R.J. Anderson and Wilson Karaman

12-04

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19

Pitching Backward: Best. Reliever Season. Ever.
by
Jeff Long

12-04

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7

Rumor Roundup: The Inevitability of the Dodgers
by
Chris Mosch

12-03

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4

Rumor Roundup: The Fourth Year Is Always The Hardest
by
Chris Mosch

12-03

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2

Transaction Analysis: The Surprisingly High Price of Nostalgia
by
Sahadev Sharma and Nick Shlain

12-02

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15

An Agent's Take: Advice For The Teenaged Rumors Reporters
by
Joshua Kusnick

12-02

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4

Rumor Roundup: Lester's New Home Won't Be His New Home
by
Daniel Rathman

12-01

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1

Rumor Roundup: A Shark in Sox?
by
Daniel Rathman

11-26

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2

Daisy Cutter: Jon Lester's New Peers
by
Sahadev Sharma

11-26

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0

Rumor Roundup: The Ace Chase, the Rays' Face, and Some Chase Waste
by
Chris Mosch

11-25

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3

Rumor Roundup: Revenge is a Dish Best Served Immediately
by
Daniel Rathman

11-24

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5

Transaction Analysis: Up and Adam
by
Sahadev Sharma and Mauricio Rubio

11-24

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3

Rumor Roundup: If Step One Is Making Betances Closer, What's Step Two?
by
Daniel Rathman

11-21

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11

Pebble Hunting: Hank Aaron's Hypothetical Fortune
by
Sam Miller

11-21

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0

Raising Aces: Free Agent Pitchers: The Top Tier
by
Doug Thorburn

11-20

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3

Rumor Roundup: The Ideas That Dayton Moore Toys With
by
Chris Mosch

11-20

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10

An Agent's Take: When the Smallest Transactions are the Biggest
by
Joshua Kusnick

11-13

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4

Hot Stove Scouting Report: Justin Masterson
by
Mark Anderson

11-11

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2

BP Unfiltered: Grading the 'MLB Executive' Predictions, 2012 and 2013
by
Sam Miller

11-05

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6

Pebble Hunting: Nelson Cruz is Same, Different
by
Sam Miller

11-04

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32

Painting the Black: The Free Agent 50
by
R.J. Anderson

11-04

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6

Prospectus Feature: The #Sources Season
by
Matthew Trueblood

11-03

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6

Hot Stove Scouting Report: Russell Martin
by
Chris Rodriguez

10-29

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0

Hot Stove Scouting Report: Victor Martinez
by
Tucker Blair

10-29

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0

Hot Stove Scouting Report: Pablo Sandoval
by
Ryan Parker

10-28

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1

Hot Stove Scouting Report: Hanley Ramirez
by
Ethan Purser

10-28

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8

Hot Stove Scouting Report: Jon Lester
by
Jeff Moore

12-05

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8

Ask the Industry
by
Zachary Levine

12-04

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 341: Hot Stovepocalypse
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

12-03

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0

Rumor Roundup: Re-Upping Ramirez
by
Daniel Rathman

12-03

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13

Transaction Analysis: Dombrowski's Puzzling Deal
by
Ben Lindbergh, Josh Herzenberg and Paul Sporer

11-27

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0

The Lineup Card: 8 Unfulfilled Rumors From Last Year's Hot Stove
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-25

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0

The Week in Quotes: November 18-24
by
Nick Bacarella and Chris Mosch

11-21

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1

Transaction Analysis: Four Teams Bet on Bouncebacks
by
Ben Lindbergh and Craig Goldstein

11-20

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The BP Wayback Machine: How to Make Up a Good Trade Rumor
by
Matt Swartz

11-05

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38

Painting the Black: The 50 Best Free Agents of 2013-2014
by
R.J. Anderson

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It can be difficult for two teams to balance the value of a pitcher with his impending free agency.

Over a month ago when now-debunked rumors surfaced that the Cubs and Nationals were interested in a deal that would have sent Jordan Zimmermann to the North Side, I immediately questioned, well, for what, exactly? Sure, Zimmermann is a hugely valuable pitcher, one of the better arms in all of baseball, but there were too many obstacles keeping a (to my mind) sensible deal from happening.

The Nats are coming off a great year and are still on the upswing, expected to be clear leaders for the NL East this season and possibly for some years after that. The Cubs are attempting to build a contender for 2015, but would they really give up some of the best prospects in baseball for one year of control of Zimmermann? It seemed contradictory to everything they’d been working toward over the past few years. And unless the Nats are going to turn around and sign someone like Max Scherzer, they’d likely want someone(s) who could immediately aid them in a potential 2015 World Series run.

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December 16, 2014 3:36 am

Rumor Roundup: It's Hard To Make Dan Haren Happy

1

Daniel Rathman

The Marlins might try to flip Dan Haren, but options are limited. Also, the Cubs aren't interested in Colby Rasmus, and Brad Penny is mentioned.

Marlins might flip Dan Haren
When Haren signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Dodgers on November 25th, 2013, he made it clear that he only wanted to pitch in the Los Angeles area for the remainder of his major-league career. A player option worth $10 million vested when Haren reached 180 innings in 2014, giving him the right to stay with the Dodgers, which he (unsurprisingly) exercised before Halloween.


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Posting will begin soon for Jung-Ho Kang, Ian Desmond seems intent on testing free agency, and Mike Morse is mentioned for the Marlins.

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Why does the value a team places on a draft pick seem to change from situation to situation?

“The Yankees never made an offer to David Robertson; determined they’d rather sign Andrew Miller and get the draft pick [compensation] for Robertson.” – Buster Olney, via Twitter

All other factors equal, it is preferable to sign a free agent who is not attached to a qualifying offer than a free agent that is QO-attached. This is obvious. What is not obvious is by how much, or whether that “how much” is always constant from free agent to free agent for each team. First round pick protection, competitive window, payroll limit, state of one’s minor-league system, and upcoming draft class will all determine how each team costs (values) losing a draft pick. According to traditional financial, economic, whatever-you-want-to-call-it theory, weighing these factors all makes sense. But, according to traditional theory, each team would individually weigh the cost of giving up a draft pick equally across all QO-attached free agents. Example time:

Team X puts the cost of losing its first round pick at $8M. Absent the qualifying offer, Team X values Max Scherzer at six years, $150M and Ervin Santana at two years, $25M. Taking the cost of losing a first round pick into account, Team X should value Scherzer at 6 years, $142M and Santana at 2 years, $17M.

Cool, makes sense. Alas, mental accounting, which posits that “people spontaneously generate their own mental accounts, and where we place these boundaries subtly (but profoundly) influences financial decision making,” indicates that our traditional theories may be oversimplifying things here. Specifically, it notes that we create topical accounts, in that our decisions are altered by the context of the situation. Whereas most think it absurd to drive 15 minutes down the road to another car dealership to save $75 on a $25,000 car, many will stand in line for an hour in the middle of the night to save that same $75 on a $250 smart phone.

Question: What does this have to do with QO-attached free agents?

Answer: Given the use of topical accounts, we could hypothesize that if GMs categorize Scherzer as an impact player and Santana as a role player—and are less willing to give up a draft pick to get a mere role player—that teams might be either (i) undervaluing the cost of the QO when valuing top free agents (saving $75 on the car) and (ii) overvaluing the cost of the QO when valuing lower-end free agents (saving $75 on the smart phone).

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December 15, 2014 12:57 am

Transaction Analysis: Melky Laughs Last

9

Sahadev Sharma and Wilson Karaman

The White Sox continue to upgrade their many positions of doom, signing Melky Cabrera to a three-year deal.

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We'll be updating this as the day goes on.



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December 12, 2014 9:57 am

Rumor Roundup: Remember James Shields?

1

Daniel Rathman

Shields market might start getting busier, while Melky and the Mariners remain 730 days apart.

The Winter Meetings lit up the hot stove and kept it aflame, and it’s not even nearly out of fuel yet…

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December 11, 2014 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: Yoenis Cespedes Is Always Good, Fit

4

Daniel Rathman

The Orioles are interested in Cespedes, the Twins are interested in the first name that should probably come to your mind, and the Rule 5 draft's script is leaking.

Orioles might be a “good fit” for Yoenis Cespedes
Somewhere, a member of the Cespedes Family BBQ duo is jumping for joy. According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Orioles are interested in obtaining the Cuban outfielder from the Red Sox.


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December 11, 2014 12:45 am

Transaction Analysis: League-Worst Bullpen No More

1

R.J. Anderson

The Astros pick up two relievers who should add some credibility to the team's late-inning efforts.

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December 10, 2014 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: The Pittsburgh Pounce

5

Andrew Koo

While the rest of the league is futzing around, the Pirates lock up their third starter of the winter.

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December 10, 2014 5:59 am

Rumor Roundup: A Dayton Moore-Atlanta Connection?

1

Daniel Rathman

The Royals might be going after Upton, the A's might be going after somebody, and the Nationals are holding out for Odor.

Royals involved in various trade discussions
In the wake of his club’s march to the American League pennant, general manager Dayton Moore has been quiet in the first few weeks of the offseason. If reports from San Diego are any indication, however, that might soon change.


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December 9, 2014 12:01 am

Transaction Analysis: Moss Gathered

5

R.J. Anderson, Craig Goldstein and Mauricio Rubio

Yet another AL team plucks a middle-of-the-order hitter from Oakland.

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