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05-09

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Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for May 8 (or, The Josh Hamilton Show)
by
Larry Granillo

04-15

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2

Tater Trot Tracker: Trot Times for April 14
by
Larry Granillo

12-21

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36

Spinning Yarn: Hit-and-Run Success is No Accident
by
Mike Fast

10-26

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40

The Lineup Card: 13 Bad Players Who Are (or Were) Still Fun to Watch and Root For
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-20

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22

The Lineup Card: The Top 13 Veterans Committee Selections That Weren't THAT Bad
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-31

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3

Tater Trot Tracker: Williams, Appling, Oh and Bo
by
Larry Granillo

03-30

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5

Wezen-Ball: A Solo Shot
by
Larry Granillo

10-27

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16

World Series Prospectus: Fall Classic Memories
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-22

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6

Changing Speeds: Cold Fusion
by
Ken Funck

09-07

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9

Checking the Numbers: Pujols and the Simulation Gauntlet
by
Eric Seidman

08-11

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66

Ahead in the Count: Home-Field Advantages, Part One
by
Matt Swartz

05-17

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12

Prospectus Q&A: Jim Palmer
by
David Laurila

04-12

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5

Prospectus Q&A: Rob Deer
by
David Laurila

10-27

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1

On the Beat: The Power Spectrum
by
John Perrotto

11-01

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Schrodinger's Bat: My First Full Season
by
Dan Fox

10-18

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Schrodinger's Bat: The Baserunning Edition
by
Dan Fox

09-25

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It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over Redux
by
Baseball Prospectus

08-09

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Bonds Responses
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-27

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Lies, Damned Lies: Fixing It
by
Nate Silver

04-29

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Prospectus Q&A: Dan Levitt
by
David Laurila

10-16

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Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-16

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-11

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Remembering Buck O'Neil
by
Alex Belth

10-11

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

10-09

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Completely Random Statistical Trivia
by
Keith Woolner

10-09

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-07

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

09-26

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of September 26
by
Jay Jaffe

08-24

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Schrodinger's Bat: Valuing the Running Game
by
Dan Fox

06-08

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Schrodinger's Bat: Swing and Miss
by
Dan Fox

05-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: Introducing ORVY
by
Nate Silver

10-22

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Prospectus Today: Game Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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Call It In The Air!
by
Dave Pease

06-29

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The Impact of Closers
by
Rany Jazayerli

12-13

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The Greatest Home Run Hitters of All Time
by
James Kushner

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April 12, 2009 10:32 am

Prospectus Q&A: Rob Deer

5

David Laurila

The king of Three True Outcomes discusses his former teammates, his experiences in the game, and a memorable Easter Sunday blast.

Russell Branyan and Jack Cust are challenging his legacy, but until their career stat lines are finalized, Rob Deer reigns as the king of Three True Outcomes. With 230 home runs, 575 walks, and 1,409 strikeouts in 4,512 plate appearances, Deer has a TTO rate of 49.7, a percentage unmatched in big-league history. A legendary slugger in multiple statistical categories, Deer hit .220/.324/.442 in a career which saw him strike out once every 2.75 at-bats-also a big-league record among retired players-and register the lowest batting average of any outfielder with over 2,000 at-bats. Despite the negatives, Deer did three things well: propel majestic home runs, draw walks, and play a well-above-average right field. A minor league hitting coordinator in the Padres' organization for seven years after his playing days, Deer currently runs his own business, Vizubat. Deer talked about his time in the game, including notable teammates, his unique standing in historic annals, and a memorable home run on Easter Sunday.

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October 27, 2008 11:44 am

On the Beat: The Power Spectrum

1

John Perrotto

Long balls from slugger Ryan Howard and starting pitcher Joe Blanton bedevil the Rays.

PHILADELPHIA-Detailed performance analysis reveals that Ryan Howard is not quite the top-tier player that the home run and RBI columns on the stat sheet make him out to be. The Phillies first baseman's WARP3, an indicator of his overall value, was 5.4 in the regular season, barely half of the 10.6 that Phillies second baseman Chase Utley produced. Howard also hit just .224/.294/.451 in 265 plate appearances against left-handers, and he was brutal in the field with -14 FRAA. Yet he is generally considered inside the clubhouse as the Phillies' most valuable player, and if anyone outpolls Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols in this year's National League MVP voting, it will likely be Howard based on his major league-leading 48 home runs and 146 RBI.

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November 1, 2007 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: My First Full Season

0

Dan Fox

Memories of this fan's rite of passage engender a look back at 1977 on the bases.

"This team, it all flows from me. I'm the straw that stirs the drink. Maybe I should say me and [Thurman] Munson, but he can only stir it bad."
-Attributed to Reggie Jackson in the May 1977 issue of Sport magazine.


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October 18, 2007 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: The Baserunning Edition

0

Dan Fox

Dan runs down the 2007 leaderboards in baserunning metrics, and crowns a player who helped his team the most on the basepaths.

"Never trust a baserunner who's limping. Comes a base hit, and you'll think he just got back from Lourdes."
--Joe Garagiola


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Another selection from our book on the best pennant races of all time, in anticipation of our upcoming bookstore events.

It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, Baseball Prospectus' book on the best pennant races of all time, is available for purchase in stores and also available online through Amazon. If you like what you read here in this sidebar on the chapter covering the 1967 American League's pennant chase, you'll love a book with more than 420 more pages of this sort of content, perfect reading for every fan as he or she settles in to enjoy the final stretch drives and then October's postseason action.

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Read the full article...

August 9, 2007 12:00 am

Bonds Responses

0

Baseball Prospectus

The past might be a foreign country, but at the moment, where 756 is concerned, we're still well within its borders. What does the gang think of Barry Bonds' achievement?

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Maury Brown : There ought to be one word that comes to mind when taking in Bonds' place as the all-time home run king. Maybe that word is 'confused.' Or cloudy, muddy, murky... take your pick. In the history of sports, I don't think anyone has ever faced the dilemma of asking whether or not a record was legitimately set or not. Barry Bonds has forced us to look at that issue with arguably the most revered and sacred of records in baseball. After all, the record has been achieved, and controversy be damned, he hasn't failed a drug test, nor has he been indicted by the Feds, nor has some mountain of evidence landed in George Mitchell's lap that makes one think that Bonds is going to be the focus of his soon-to-be published report.

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July 27, 2007 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Fixing It

0

Nate Silver

Could a Donaghy scenario happen in baseball?

Baseball must be toasting this week's sports pages over glasses of vodka and schadenfreude. Last Friday, NBA referee Tim Donaghy was implicated in a betting scandal. On Wednesday, Tour de France leader Michael Rasmussen, under heavy suspicion of doping, was kicked out of the race by his own team. And on Thursday, Michael Vick was scrambling away from reporters in a federal courthouse, rather than opposing linebackers on the field.

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April 29, 2007 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Dan Levitt

0

David Laurila

David interviews the Deadball Era expert on soggy baseballs, triples, the Baker Bowl, and much more.

The "Deadball Era" stretched from 1901-1919, and it was a time when batters stretched double into triples, and triples into inside-the-park home runs more often than they hit balls over the fence. Teams bunted. They utilized the hit-and-run. They stole a lot of bases. It was a style far different than what many of today's statistically-savvy fans consider "smart baseball." However, given the many factors that generated that style of play, was it smart baseball in its time?

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October 16, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack

0

Kevin Goldstein

Kevin checks out the newsmakers in the winter leagues.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160988517_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 16, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six

0

Joe Sheehan

Our servers, like the Cardinals bullpen and the A's, crashed. Only two of those get to come back.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1161098296_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 14, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?

0

Kevin Goldstein

Even Alexis Gomez came from somewhere (Kansas City). Kevin tells us how the Tigers and A's acquired the rest of their postseason difference-makers.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 14, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four

0

Joe Sheehan

The NLCS becomes a battle just as the ALCS is edging towards an end.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160835748_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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