A look at Soto, Aybar, Norris, and Everth in this week's VP
The Pirates backstop, Rod Barajas(Yahoo! 4%, ESPN 0%, CBS 17%), has felt regression, and it has been swift and unkind. At this point in the year, though, his slash is similar to his career line. What you see is what you get.
Aging position players elevate the Cubs' risk, but their recent track record bodes well.
The Team Injury Projections are here, driven by our brand new injury forecasting system, the Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results—or, more succinctly, CHIPPER. Thanks to work by Colin Wyers and Dan Turkenkopf and a database loaded with injuries dating back to the 2002 season—that's nearly 4,600 players and well over 400,000 days lost to injury—we now have a system that produces injury-risk assessments to three different degrees. CHIPPER projects ratings for players based on their injury history—these ratings measure the probability of a player missing one or more games, 15 or more games, or 30 or more games. CHIPPER will have additional features added to it throughout the spring and early season that will enhance the accuracy of our injury coverage.
These ratings are also available in the Player Forecast Manager (pfm.baseballprospectus.com), where they'll be sortable by league or position—you won’t have to wait for us to finish writing this series in order to see the health ratings for all of the players.
I can't tell you how to be a millionaire without paying taxes, but I can tell you how to beat PECOTA without a computer model. First, get the PECOTA projections. Here, I will explain how you can beat PECOTA once you do.
Sometimes you see them coming and sometimes you don't, no hand-me-downs in Seattle, and chatter from around the game.
In this day of non-stop news and analysis on prospects coming up through the minor leagues, very few players reach the majors by flying under the radar. Cubs catcher Geovany Soto happens to be one of those exceptions; he had not been considered among the top prospects in baseball until 2007, when he hit .353/.424/.652 in 449 plate appearances in his third season at Triple-A Iowa and won the Most Valuable Player award in the Pacific Coast League. He backed that up this year by hitting .285/.364/.504 with 23 home runs and a .288 EqA in 563 plate appearances for the Cubs. Soto was a nearly unanimous pick by the Baseball Writers Association of America as the NL Rookie of the Year this week, and was the first-place choice by 31 of the 32 voters. Reds first baseman Joey Votto was the only other rookie to garner a first-place vote, and somehow Reds right-hander Edinson Volquez received three second-place votes despite not being a rookie.
It's that time of year when we announce the winners of the 17th annual Internet Baseball Awards. More than 1,600 baseball fans from cyberspace participated in this effort to honor those players and managers whose performances in 2008 were most deserving. Today we'll announce the winners of the National League voting.
The players ranked from number 26 through 50 in the third annual ranking of the game's best.
Welcome, ladies and gents, to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft. What, you are probably wondering, is the Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft? It is the answer to this question: If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? That is, which players would you take-and in what order would you take them-if your goal was to win as many championships as possible over the medium-to-long-term?
As in the AL, the Central division is as tight as can be, while in the East two Mets are predicted to take home some hardware along with their division flag.
Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the National League, along with the staff picks in some fun miscellaneous categories.
Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.
With some new features, PECOTA's better-prepared than ever to tell you where Matt Wieters ranks among promising backstops.
I've kept you all waiting so long for the PECOTA Takes on Prospects series that I'm going to eschew any lengthy philosophical discussions. Instead, let me quickly tick off the new features that should make these rankings more accurate-or at least less inaccurate-than ever before: