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03-26

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7

BP Announcements: Free Days
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-29

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21

Bizball: Inside the 2012-16 CBA: The Luxury Tax Meets the Draft
by
Maury Brown

01-18

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: The Arbitration Process
by
Thomas Gorman

01-09

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59

On the Beat: The Best Players Still on the Board
by
John Perrotto

04-15

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21

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Scott Boras Factor: Reality or Hype?
by
Vince Gennaro

03-14

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36

Ahead in the Count: Battle for the Beltway
by
Matt Swartz

02-09

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1

Contractual Matters: NL West Payroll Projections
by
Jeff Euston

12-14

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9

On the Beat: A Werthy Disguise
by
John Perrotto

11-12

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13

On the Beat: The Second Annual All-MLB Team
by
John Perrotto

10-04

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6

Contractual Matters: Market Corrections
by
Jeff Euston

08-17

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18

Give and Take
by
Marc Normandin and Jay Jaffe

08-02

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12

Contractual Matters: August and Everything After
by
Jeff Euston

07-08

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13

Changing Speeds: Free Agent Midterms
by
Ken Funck

04-23

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5

Ahead in the Count: Methodology of The New MORP
by
Matt Swartz

04-22

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5

Ahead in the Count: Reintroducing MORP
by
Matt Swartz

04-08

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16

Ahead in the Count: Projecting Free Agent Performance
by
Matt Swartz

03-11

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18

Contractual Matters: AL East
by
Jeff Euston

02-24

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15

Contractual Matters: NL Central
by
Jeff Euston

01-31

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18

On the Beat: Weekend Update
by
John Perrotto

01-24

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11

On the Beat: Weekend Update
by
John Perrotto

01-20

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7

On the Beat: Midweek Update
by
John Perrotto

01-18

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2

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 1
by
Matt Swartz

01-17

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17

On the Beat: Weekend Update
by
John Perrotto

01-13

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11

On the Beat: Midweek Update
by
John Perrotto

01-11

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15

Ahead in the Count: Part 2 of Service-time Contracts and Wins
by
Matt Swartz

01-04

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27

Ahead in the Count: Service-Time Contracts and Wins, Part 1
by
Matt Swartz

12-29

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32

Ahead in the Count: For the Long-Term Investors
by
Matt Swartz

12-22

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20

The Real Curse
by
Colin Wyers

12-20

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7

On the Beat: Weekend Roundup
by
John Perrotto

12-17

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26

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster
by
Matt Swartz

12-10

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9

On the Beat: Day Three of the Winter Meetings
by
John Perrotto

12-09

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6

On the Beat: Day Two of the Winter Meetings
by
John Perrotto

12-08

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19

Ahead in the Count: Shifting in the Third-Base Market
by
Matt Swartz

12-06

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9

On the Beat: Pre-Winter Meetings Shopping Lists
by
John Perrotto

12-02

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19

On the Beat: Midweek Update
by
John Perrotto

11-25

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9

So You Need: Firemen
by
Jay Jaffe

11-17

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32

Ahead in the Count: How To Make Up a Good Trade Rumor
by
Matt Swartz

11-15

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20

On the Beat: Weekend Update
by
John Perrotto

11-13

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8

Transaction Action: Action and Reaction
by
Christina Kahrl

11-08

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13

On the Beat: Fire Up the Hot Stove
by
John Perrotto

05-31

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43

Prospectus Idol Entry: Fantasy Focus: Trade Market
by
Jeff Euston

02-23

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18

Prospectus Today: First-Round Picks!
by
Joe Sheehan

02-17

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43

Prospectus Today: Changing the Game?
by
Joe Sheehan

02-01

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9

Every Given Sunday: So Many Questions, So Little Time
by
John Perrotto

01-18

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13

Every Given Sunday: Baby, it's Cold Outside
by
John Perrotto

01-07

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14

On the Beat: The Dog Days of Winter
by
John Perrotto

01-04

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10

Every Given Sunday: Stoking the Hot Stove Fires
by
John Perrotto

12-21

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6

Every Given Sunday: Hesitations, Retractions, and Rebuttals
by
John Perrotto

12-14

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1

Every Given Sunday: Expanding the Market
by
John Perrotto

12-07

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5

Every Given Sunday: Winter Meetings Preview
by
John Perrotto

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July 8, 2010 8:00 am

Changing Speeds: Free Agent Midterms

13

Ken Funck

A look at the best and worst free agent signings, at least at the season's midpoint, from last winter.

Like most sports fans, over time I’ve developed a love/hate relationship with the concept of free agency.  Since I happen to root for a team that’s seemingly gone a galactic year since last winning a title, the idea of getting something for nothing (since it’s not my money being spent) and adding a player for “free” is a powerful one.  From an entertainment perspective there’s something to be said for the off-season interest that the annual free agent feeding frenzy engenders, while on a sociopolitical level it’s hard to argue with the concept of a worker bargaining his own worth on the open market.

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April 23, 2010 12:07 pm

Ahead in the Count: Methodology of The New MORP

5

Matt Swartz

Here is how we're now figuring the monetary value of individual players.

This article will follow up on the new version of MORP that I introduced yesterday with a more thorough description of my methodology and my reasoning for it. Firstly, I will restate that the definition of MORP (Market value Over Replacement Player) is the marginal cost of acquiring a player’s contribution on the free-agent market. The basic structure that I am using includes adjusting for draft-pick compensation, which adds to the value of free agents by 10-20 percent. It also looks at all players with six years or more of major-league service time, all years of their free-agent contracts, and makes valuations of their performance based on actual performance rather than the projections, which are biased. I am also adjusting MORP so it is linear with respect to WARP. The discussion of linearity and of the decision to use actual rather than projected performance to evaluate contracts has been detailed in earlier articles, and I won’t reiterate them here in the interest of space. The basic reason why linearity is a fair assumption is that teams frequently have enough vacancies that they can add the number of wins they choose without filling them all. There are exceptions like the 2009 Yankees, who added three front-of-the-rotation starters and an elite first baseman in one offseason. However, even the Yankees do this infrequently enough that it does not regularly impact the market, and without two teams bidding for several superstars every offseason, this is not a large issue. The reason that using projection is so problematic was detailed last week, when I showed how free agents who reach the open market are a biased sample and regularly underperform their projections. For more details of these results, please see my previous work. Here are links to my three part series as well as my article on free agents underperforming their PECOTA projections. I will introduce some of the newer concepts in this article.

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April 22, 2010 11:20 am

Ahead in the Count: Reintroducing MORP

5

Matt Swartz

Updating BP's metric measuring the monetary value of a player's production.

When the Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers after the 2007 season along with Dontrelle Willis for a handful of prospects, the familiar voices echoed with the following summary: "Baseball is a business." They talked about how the Marlins "could not afford" to keep those players as their salaries escalated, and would only be able to watch them walk away when they became free agents. That’s what they said, at least. Now, the same "they" are outraged that Forbes reported that the Marlins reported the highest profit of any team last season. Clearly, they infer, the Marlins can afford the talent, but choose not to.

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April 8, 2010 12:58 pm

Ahead in the Count: Projecting Free Agent Performance

16

Matt Swartz

Whether a player's kept or moves on, metrics frequently overstate free agents' future value.

Before a team attempts to sign a free agent, they try to anticipate his value to them by approximating what they feel that player’s production will be over the coming years. Using that, they can then decide what to offer him. There are two prominent methods for evaluating free agents to come out of the sabermetric community in recent years, first here at Baseball Prospectus by Nate Silver in 2005 and later at FanGraphs in 2009. Both have made simple projections for the free-agent crop, and compared those to the salaries they received.

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March 11, 2010 11:00 am

Contractual Matters: AL East

18

Jeff Euston

A look at the division that houses the game's biggest spenders.

Only the strong survive in the American League East. The division includes baseball’s two biggest revenue-generating machines and three other clubs whose revenues and payrolls reside tens of millions of dollars down the road. Continuing our 2010 payroll forecast (we’ve covered the NL Central, the AL Central, and the NL East), let’s examine the spending habits of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles.

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The day is dawning when the Cardinals must re-sign Albert Pujols and the Brewers must do the same with Prince Fielder.

Baseball's largest division will likely feature four of the top 15 payrolls in the game for 2010-the Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, and Brewers. The other two teams, the Reds and the Pirates, project to rank 23rd and 29th or 30th, respectively. Continuing our look at the 2010 payroll forecasts (the projections for the AL Central can be found here), let's take a look at the NL Central.

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January 31, 2010 12:42 pm

On the Beat: Weekend Update

18

John Perrotto

Slim and trim Charlie Manuel wants a World Series rematch, Mike Rizzo builds a strong front office in Washington, and more news from around the game.

The World Series has been over for nearly three months, spring training begins in a little less than three weeks, and Charlie Manuel is nearly 60 pounds lighter than he was at this time a year ago. Yet it still stings when the Phillies manager thinks about how his team missed its chance to become the first National League team since the 1975-76 Reds to win back-to-back World Series in 2009, losing in six games to the Yankees.

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January 24, 2010 12:59 pm

On the Beat: Weekend Update

11

John Perrotto

The Angels aren't expecting to fall from grace, the Giants feel bigger and better, plus news and views from around the game.

It has become increasingly trendy to suggest the Mariners are ready to dethrone the three-time defending champion Angels in the American League West this year. Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik has spent a lifetime in baseball to become an overnight sensation, rebuilding a franchise that just two years ago lost 101 games. He has continued to add intriguing pieces throughout this offseason by trading for left-hander Cliff Lee, first baseman Casey Kotchman, and designated hitter Milton Bradley, and signing third baseman Chone Figgins as a free agent.

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January 20, 2010 11:58 am

On the Beat: Midweek Update

7

John Perrotto

Dave Dombrowski goes for a "proven closer," plus news and views from around the game.

Deciding to bid on Type-A free agents beyond those in the elite class always gives general managers reason for pause. Teams that sign Type-A free agents have to forfeit a premium pick in the amateur draft as compensation if that player has been offered salary arbitration by his former team. Teams that finish among the top 15 in the major leagues the previous season are forced to send their first-round pick to the player's previous club.

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January 18, 2010 12:17 pm

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 1

2

Matt Swartz

An evaluation of where the valuation of contracts is at, and where it should go.

The first of a three-part series.

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January 17, 2010 12:07 pm

On the Beat: Weekend Update

17

John Perrotto

Did Adam LaRoche pick production over a bigger payday, plus getting defensive in Boston, a Big Mac attack in St. Louis, and rumors and rumblings from around the game.

At first glance, Adam LaRoche gives the impression that he is a little slow on the uptake. He does not immediately respond to questions, instead pondering them before giving answers. He also talks rather deliberately. However, you do not have to spend much time with the Diamondbacks' new first baseman to realize that he is a very bright guy. The reason he deliberates before answering is because he prefers to give sincere and thoughtful answers rather than the usual pablum that comes out of the mouths of so many professional athletes and coaches.

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January 13, 2010 12:27 pm

On the Beat: Midweek Update

11

John Perrotto

The Reds show some foreign intrigue, Big Mac's friends and foes check in, Wren touts new-look Braves and other news and notes

A bombshell has dropped in what has already been quite the newsworthy week in baseball, but it's not that Mark McGwire admitted that he took steroids during the 1998 season, when he became the first player in history to hit 70 home runs. It was obvious the admission was coming ever since the Cardinals announced in November that McGwire was leaving baseball exile to become their hitting coach. The only surprise was that McGwire remained in complete denial that performance-enhancing drugs had nothing to do with that 70-homer season.

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