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Articles Tagged Era 

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08-22

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Era
by
Craig Goldstein

07-23

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Useful Non-Closer Relievers
by
J.P. Breen

03-25

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1

The Darkhorses: ERA
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-05

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17

Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 80 Fantasy Starting Pitchers, Part One: 1-40
by
Paul Sporer

12-26

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6

Transaction Analysis: Leery of Liriano
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-02

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1

Value Picks: Starting Pitching Review
by
Paul Sporer

09-14

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1

Weekly Planner: Week 25
by
Paul Sporer

01-27

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15

The BP Wayback Machine: Money Poorly Spent, Now and Then
by
John Perrotto

01-13

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61

Heartburn Hardball: Jack Morris in Motion
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

12-30

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41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Morris on the Ballot, Smith to Close
by
Jay Jaffe

10-31

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Weighty Matter
by
Jay Jaffe

10-19

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23

World Series Prospectus: The Midwest Showdown
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-15

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2

Prospectus Hit and Run: Junkballin'
by
Jay Jaffe

09-15

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Sweet Relief
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-09

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4

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

09-07

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

08-04

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1

The Asian Equation: Finding Relief from NPB
by
Michael Street

08-03

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4

Clubhouse Confidential: Be Like CC
by
Marc Carig

07-25

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193

Manufactured Runs: Lost in the SIERA Madre
by
Colin Wyers

07-21

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1

Divide and Conquer, AL West: Streaking in the Wild West
by
Joey Matschulat

07-07

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14

The Asian Equation: The Decline of NPB Pitching Imports
by
Michael Street

07-01

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3

Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #14
by
Craig Brown

04-29

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24

Prospectus Hit and Run: Bad-Start Starter Six-Pack
by
Jay Jaffe

03-17

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6

Overthinking It: Small Samplings of Spring, NL Edition
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-15

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7

Overthinking It: Small Samplings of Spring, AL Edition
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-11

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10

SIERA
by
Marc Normandin

02-25

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Are You Experienced?
by
Jay Jaffe

02-08

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44

Future Shock: Atlanta Braves Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-27

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21

Ahead in the Count: Testing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz

12-20

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14

Ahead in the Count: A Pitch for Joe Blanton
by
Matt Swartz

12-20

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Starting Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

11-02

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1

Analyze This: How the Rangers were Acquired, Part II
by
Jesse Behr

10-30

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2

Analyze This: How the Giants Were Acquired, Part II
by
Jesse Behr

10-06

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46

Prospectus Hit List: The Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

09-10

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19

Ahead in the Count: The Biggest ERA-SIERA Divides of 2010
by
Matt Swartz

08-10

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32

Checking the Numbers: '90s Nine, Meet the '00s Ten
by
Eric Seidman

07-14

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10

Ahead in the Count: Three Eras of All-Star Voting
by
Matt Swartz

06-19

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1

BP Unfiltered: This Week in Minor League History: June 14 - June 20
by
Geoff Young

06-02

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25

Checking the Numbers: Sneaky SIERA
by
Eric Seidman and Matt Swartz

05-28

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2

Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #9
by
Craig Brown

05-07

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8

Seidnotes: Livan La Vida Loca
by
Eric Seidman

04-09

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31

Prospectus Hit and Run: Chugging Toward Cooperstown
by
Jay Jaffe

02-24

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5

Checking the Numbers: The Crystal Orb of SIERA
by
Eric Seidman

02-12

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26

Introducing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

02-11

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36

Introducing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

02-10

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35

Introducing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

02-01

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1

Checking the Numbers: Drilling Down on Volatility and Consistency
by
Eric Seidman

01-25

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63

Prospectus Roundtable: Analyzing RoboPitcher
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-06

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41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Hall of Fame Cases for Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

10-28

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25

World Series Prospectus: Yankees versus Phillies Preview
by
Jay Jaffe

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March 15, 2011 10:00 am

Overthinking It: Small Samplings of Spring, AL Edition

7

Ben Lindbergh

Running down the American League's best candidates to benefit from hot spring starts.

We’re all aware that spring training stats wouldn’t get much attention in an ideal world, since a player’s extended record of prior performance in the minors and/or majors allows for far more accurate forecasts than a month’s worth of playing time against mixed competition in March. (If you don’t believe me, look no further than this recent dispatch from Florida: “Cards’ Lohse goes six scoreless.”) Still, we know from past experience that some small-sample heroics will have implications for games that count; superior production—as well as glowing scouting reports—in the Grapefruit or Cactus League can impress a manager more easily than a good month for a far-flung minor-league affiliate, enabling a player on the bubble to earn a place (or a more prominent role) on the big club’s roster.

As I write this, Melky Cabrera and Ryan Roberts lead their respective leagues in batting average, and Luke Hughes and Danny Espinosa are the latest word in RBI men, as effective a reminder as any that the clean slate of April is still a few weeks away. That said, the exhibition schedule is half complete; the first round of cuts has already been made, and coaching staffs and front-office executives are meeting at regular intervals to ruminate on their rosters’ composition come Opening Day. Which performances to date by players who came into the spring on shaky ground have stood them in good stead for 2011? Today I’ll tackle the AL, highlighting one batter and one pitcher per team, before turning to the NL representatives later this week.

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March 11, 2011 6:52 am

SIERA

10

Marc Normandin

A sampling of starting pitchers whose 2010 SIERAs predict better (or worse) times ahead.

Earned Run Average can't be trusted in small samples. It has little predictive ability over short spans of time, given the number of things that can influence it—defense, park effects, batting average on balls in play, or just plain old dumb luck. When enough innings are looked at together, ERA has its merits, but with less available data, run estimators—like SIERA—are the better bet for year-to-year predictions.

That means that SIERA is useful for seeing which players over- or underperformed in terms of their ERA. (No, Matt Cain was not one of them.) Using this tool, we can predict some likely 2011 sleepers, as well as some pitchers who will miss the good old days when extra luck and quality defenses saved them inning after inning.

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February 25, 2011 10:23 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Are You Experienced?

1

Jay Jaffe

A kid's vintage and relative experience has less than a predictive effect on his arriving to stay in The Show.

With Cliff Lee's surprising detour to Philadelphia and Andy Pettitte's unsurprising detour into retirement, the Yankees' major-league rotation is in a decidedly unfinished state. Happily, their farm system is chock full of quality pitching prospects. On the surface, the solution—fill the rotation's two open spots from within—appears obvious, but the Yankees are auditioning veteran retreads such as Freddy Garcia, Sergio Mitre, and Bartolo Colon for first dibs on those spots. Not long after pitchers and catchers reported to camp, general manager Brian Cashman dismissed the idea of either of the team's blue chippers on the mound, Manuel Banuelos and Dellin Betances, breaking camp with the big club, stating to the New York Daily News' Mark Feinsand that "(t)hey’re going to get their first taste of big-league camp, then they're going to get slotted into Trenton. They have no chance to make this team."

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The Braves are consistently among the best systems, and are again thanks to the game's most impressive collection of Latin American pitching talent.

Previous Rankings: 2010 | 2009 | 2008

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Did SIERA beat xFIP in 2010?

When Eric Seidman and I introduced SIERA last winter, we ran a number of tests to determine if our theoretical foundation of run prevention led to a superior estimation of pitchers’ skill levels. While SIERA had a solid advantage at predicting future ERA over some ERA estimators and a last decimal-point small lead over xFIP, we ran the tests again after 2010 to ensure that it held a lead going forward. Although the regression formula did not incorporate future ERAs and should not have been biased, it's still important to test the following year to see how well SIERA held up.

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December 20, 2010 9:00 am

Ahead in the Count: A Pitch for Joe Blanton

14

Matt Swartz

Is the Phillies' right-hander an undervalued commodity?

From the ashes of the Tweet-pocalypse of rumors that culminated in Cliff Lee’s surprise five-year deal with the Phillies, there arose another batch of rumors about how the Phillies would make room for Lee’s salary. The Phillies are now committed to spend about $163 million in 2011 based on their current roster, which is $21 million more than they spent in 2010. The Phillies have made it known that they are trying to move salary to make this work, and it is no secret that they are trying to move Joe Blanton.

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December 20, 2010 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Starting Pitchers

16

Jay Jaffe

Bert Blyleven, in his final year of eligibility, makes his last stand for Cooperstown.

It's fair to say that in these quarters, the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot is the most hotly anticipated one in the eight seasons since I began covering the Cooperstown beat for Baseball Prospectus. That's because when the 2010 ballot results were announced back on January 6, Bert Blyleven fell just five votes short of enshrinement, receiving 74.2 percent of the necessary 75 percent. As disappointing as his close-but-no-cigar showing in his 13th year on the ballot might have been, Blyleven's tally represented a significant surge from the 62.7 percent he received the year before. After a long, hard climb from his having receiving less than 20 percent in each of his first three years on the ballot, his election is so close that the pitcher and all of those who have supported him over the years can practically taste it.

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November 2, 2010 12:34 am

Analyze This: How the Rangers were Acquired, Part II

1

Jesse Behr

How the Rangers acquired their pitching staff.

While the San Francisco Giants celebrate their first World Series championship since heading out west, the Texas Rangers will continue their quest for their first title in 2011. The team has the foundation to keep winning, but a lot will depend on “the winter decision,” Cliff Lee style. Armed with a superb farm system and youngsters to fill gaps, they have plenty of options. Let’s see how the 2010 pitching corps was formed:

Draft Picks

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Jesse Behr breaks down how the Giants assembled their pitching staff.

In Part I, I looked at how the position players on the Giants’ World Series roster came together. Now, we’ll track and analyze how the club’s pitching staff wound up in San Francisco.

Please know that the reason Barry Zito, the Giants southpaw with the most lucrative contract, (a seven-year, $126 million deal) is not on this list because he was indeed left off the post-season roster. Past that, you’ll see a smartly designed pitching corps, most of which has been homegrown:

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October 6, 2010 12:30 pm

Prospectus Hit List: The Finale

46

Jay Jaffe

One last ranking of all 30 major league teams in 2010, from the Yankees to the Pirates.

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September 10, 2010 8:00 am

Ahead in the Count: The Biggest ERA-SIERA Divides of 2010

19

Matt Swartz

A look at some pitchers who have had good luck this season and some who haven't.

When Eric Seidman and I introduced SIERA in February, we were very careful to show that it predicts future ERA better than current ERA does. While Defense Independent Pitching Statistics are not a foolproof way to measure pitchers, using them as a guide to dig further into the numbers can be very helpful. Last October, I spent a couple articles analyzing Cole Hamels’ performance, and I highlighted how little was different between his 2008 and 2009 season, and how I expected his performance to improve as his luck neutralized. Sure enough, Hamels has seen his ERA fall back toward 2008 levels in 2010. In June, I disappointed Rockies fans by explaining the luck that had led to Ubaldo Jimenez’s 1.16 ERA at that time. Sure enough, he has a 4.36 ERA since that article was posted. Eric and I wrote on the Diamondbacks’ starters, stressing the bad luck that Dan Haren had seen to that point in the season. He had a 5.35 ERA, but it has been 3.59 since that article was posed and Haren has also been traded to the Angels. My point is not to cherry pick successes, but to prove that this type of analysis works. I certainly cannot be right every time I say a pitcher’s ERA is likely to fall or rise, because luck plays a role in pitching to a very large degree and luck by its very nature can reoccur. However, this type of analysis will prove prophetic more often than not.

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Examining those pitchers who have been in the upper echelon over the past decade.

People love groups, plain and simple. There is something innately fascinating about grouping together people, places, or things in order to express a point or frame an argument. In baseball especially, representative groupings are important given the very large quantity of available information.

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