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Articles Tagged Era 

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08-22

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting for Era
by
Craig Goldstein

07-23

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Useful Non-Closer Relievers
by
J.P. Breen

03-25

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1

The Darkhorses: ERA
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-05

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17

Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 80 Fantasy Starting Pitchers, Part One: 1-40
by
Paul Sporer

12-26

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6

Transaction Analysis: Leery of Liriano
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-02

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1

Value Picks: Starting Pitching Review
by
Paul Sporer

09-14

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1

Weekly Planner: Week 25
by
Paul Sporer

01-27

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15

The BP Wayback Machine: Money Poorly Spent, Now and Then
by
John Perrotto

01-13

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61

Heartburn Hardball: Jack Morris in Motion
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

12-30

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41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Morris on the Ballot, Smith to Close
by
Jay Jaffe

10-31

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Weighty Matter
by
Jay Jaffe

10-19

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23

World Series Prospectus: The Midwest Showdown
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-15

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2

Prospectus Hit and Run: Junkballin'
by
Jay Jaffe

09-15

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Sweet Relief
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-09

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4

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

09-07

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

08-04

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1

The Asian Equation: Finding Relief from NPB
by
Michael Street

08-03

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4

Clubhouse Confidential: Be Like CC
by
Marc Carig

07-25

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193

Manufactured Runs: Lost in the SIERA Madre
by
Colin Wyers

07-21

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1

Divide and Conquer, AL West: Streaking in the Wild West
by
Joey Matschulat

07-07

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14

The Asian Equation: The Decline of NPB Pitching Imports
by
Michael Street

07-01

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3

Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #14
by
Craig Brown

04-29

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24

Prospectus Hit and Run: Bad-Start Starter Six-Pack
by
Jay Jaffe

03-17

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6

Overthinking It: Small Samplings of Spring, NL Edition
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-15

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7

Overthinking It: Small Samplings of Spring, AL Edition
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-11

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10

SIERA
by
Marc Normandin

02-25

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Are You Experienced?
by
Jay Jaffe

02-08

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44

Future Shock: Atlanta Braves Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-27

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21

Ahead in the Count: Testing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz

12-20

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14

Ahead in the Count: A Pitch for Joe Blanton
by
Matt Swartz

12-20

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Starting Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

11-02

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1

Analyze This: How the Rangers were Acquired, Part II
by
Jesse Behr

10-30

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2

Analyze This: How the Giants Were Acquired, Part II
by
Jesse Behr

10-06

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46

Prospectus Hit List: The Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

09-10

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19

Ahead in the Count: The Biggest ERA-SIERA Divides of 2010
by
Matt Swartz

08-10

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32

Checking the Numbers: '90s Nine, Meet the '00s Ten
by
Eric Seidman

07-14

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10

Ahead in the Count: Three Eras of All-Star Voting
by
Matt Swartz

06-19

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1

BP Unfiltered: This Week in Minor League History: June 14 - June 20
by
Geoff Young

06-02

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25

Checking the Numbers: Sneaky SIERA
by
Eric Seidman and Matt Swartz

05-28

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2

Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #9
by
Craig Brown

05-07

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8

Seidnotes: Livan La Vida Loca
by
Eric Seidman

04-09

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31

Prospectus Hit and Run: Chugging Toward Cooperstown
by
Jay Jaffe

02-24

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5

Checking the Numbers: The Crystal Orb of SIERA
by
Eric Seidman

02-12

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26

Introducing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

02-11

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36

Introducing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

02-10

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35

Introducing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

02-01

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1

Checking the Numbers: Drilling Down on Volatility and Consistency
by
Eric Seidman

01-25

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63

Prospectus Roundtable: Analyzing RoboPitcher
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-06

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41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Hall of Fame Cases for Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

10-28

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25

World Series Prospectus: Yankees versus Phillies Preview
by
Jay Jaffe

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September 15, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Junkballin'

2

Jay Jaffe

While Tim Wakefield limped to his 200th win, Mariano Rivera continued his string of excellence.

Tuesday night was a momentous one as far as forty-something pitchers earning round-numbered career milestones of questionable significance go. In Boston, Tim Wakefield wobbled but didn't fall down, earning career win number 200. Hours later and about 2,500 miles away in Seattle, Mariano Rivera earned his 600th career save. Wakefield labored to become the 108th pitcher to reach his plateau, while Rivera looked almost effortless in becoming just the second pitcher to reach his, but neither accomplishment changes how those venerable hurlers should be viewed in the context of history.

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As the Braves ride another strong bullpen to a playoff spot, rediscover the relief corps that helped them reach the playoffs in 2002.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel were still years away from the majors when Rany wrote a paean to the Braves bullpen, which originally ran as a "Doctoring the Numbers" column on June 18, 2002.

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September 9, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble

4

Jay Jaffe

While there is a confusing starting rotation picture for the AL playoff contenders, the NL is much clearer.

With the matter of the playoff participants in both leagues largely settled, on Wednesday I examined the unsettled nature of the playoff rotations of the likely AL representatives. As I showed, each has a considerable amount of unfinished business with regards to identifying their front four, with injuries and matchup issues both playing a part, and there's relatively little separation between the four, at least according to a quick and dirty measure I nabbed from Nate Silver's back pages. By comparison, the NL teams have much less uncertainty as to who will be taking the ball, and much more certainty about whom the fairest of them all is, at least when it comes to post-season rotations.

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September 7, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Post-Season Rotation Ramble

7

Jay Jaffe

While the playoff picture may be clear, those who will take the mound in each game are not.

When Josh Beckett hobbled off the mound with an ankle sprain during the fourth inning of Monday's start, he added an unwelcome layer of suspense to Boston's championship aspirations. Not that the Sox are in danger of missing the playoffs without him; their chance of bonus baseball stood at 99.7 percent even after losing extra innings. For all of the team's strengths, including its formidable offense and late-game bullpen, Beckett's sprain—which will cost him at least one start—spotlights the unsettled nature of the Red Sox’ October rotation.

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August 4, 2011 12:17 am

The Asian Equation: Finding Relief from NPB

1

Michael Street

In his fifth Asian Equation column, Michael looks at the relievers who have enjoyed modest success--and failure--making the move from Japan to America.

The last group in my analysis of the player’s who have migrated to MLB from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) are the relievers, the least appreciated members of a successful baseball team. Yet, of all NPB imports, they have been the most numerous (explaining the length of this article, for which I apologize in advance) and the cheapest. Diminished quality is the most obvious reason for these extremes, since starters who don’t meet MLB standards get shifted to the bullpen, and lesser talents also keep salaries down. Additionally, the typical NPB pitcher’s arsenal matches well with an MLB reliever’s skillset.

As I discussed in my last Asian Equation article, NPB is a breaking ball league, which translates better to relief than starting. A good breaking ball might fool major league hitters the first or second time they see it in a game, but it probably won’t the third or fourth time. As an illustration, here’s how batter OPS rises against two of the biggest NPB starting-pitcher busts as compared with three current MLB pitchers: the best, the most mediocre, and an old junkballer. While MLB batters’ performance improves against each pitcher the more times they see him in a game, the change is far more dramatic with Matsuzaka and Kawakami.

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August 3, 2011 9:00 am

Clubhouse Confidential: Be Like CC

4

Marc Carig

A number of pitchers traded at the deadline hope to follow in CC Sabathia's 2008 footsteps by turning around their seasons with their new teams.

CHICAGO—The Cleveland Indians team flight had just touched down after completing its journey from Minnesota when word began to spread around the cabin.

CC Sabathia, the Indians' star pitcher and free-agent-to-be, had just been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. With the plane still on the tarmac, Sabathia began saying his goodbyes to his teammates and his manager, still stunned at a reality that would eventually set in. He had gone from an also-ran with the Indians to a playoff contender with the Brewers, a change of scenery that he later called “refreshing.”

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We're retiring SIERA. Here's why.

Recently, there has been a lot of digital ink spilled about ERA estimators—statistics that take a variety of inputs and come up with a pitcher’s expected ERA given those inputs. Swing a cat around a room, and you’ll find yourself with a dozen of the things, as well as a very agitated cat. Among those is SIERA, which has lately migrated from here to Fangraphs.com in a new form, one more complex but not necessarily more accurate. We have offered SIERA for roughly 18 months, but have had a difficult time convincing anyone, be they our readers, other practitioners of sabermetrics, or our own authors, that SIERA was a significant improvement on other ERA estimators.

The logical question was whether or not we were failing to do the job of explaining why SIERA was more useful than other stats, or if we were simply being stubborn in continuing to offer it instead of simpler, more widely adopted stats. The answer depends on knowing what the purpose of an ERA estimator is. When evaluating a pitcher’s performance, there are three questions we can ask that can be addressed by statistics: How well he has pitched, how he accomplished what he’s done, and how he will do in the future. The first can be answered by Fair RA (FRA), the third by rest-of-season PECOTA. The second can be addressed by an ERA estimator like SIERA, but not necessarily SIERA itself, which boasts greater complexity than more established ERA estimators such as FIP but can only claim incremental gains in accuracy.

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July 21, 2011 5:01 am

Divide and Conquer, AL West: Streaking in the Wild West

1

Joey Matschulat

The rest of the division may be a dud, but the Rangers' red-hot run looks all the more impressive when compared to their past rotations.

I'm beginning to wonder if I’ve broken the AL West. I'm being facetious, of course, but the timing has caught me a little off guard. Since writing at length about how Seattle was making something of a spirited go at the division crown and might have a decent shot at swinging a .500 season, the Mariners have dropped from an even 38-38 (2 ½ games back) to 43-54 (12 ½ games), effectively crushing any lingering hopes of contending in 2011. Something similarly strange has happened to the Angels, as my efforts to paint them as legitimate contenders for the division crown just seven days ago had been rewarded by a sharp 3 ½-game drop in the standings and a one-week post-season odds plunge of 11.9 percent going into Wednesday night.

But rather than falsely attribute the coincidentally-timed struggles of the Rangers' competition to any of my work at Baseball Prospectus, let's just be brutally honest about what's going on here: Texas has gone into hyperdrive. Seriously. Before dropping a 9-8 heartbreaker in Anaheim during the waning hours of Wednesday evening (a game the Rangers led by an 8-3 margin after chasing Dan Haren early, leading to a peak win expectancy of 96.4 percent), Texas had collected 12 straight wins, a high-water mark for winning streaks among American League ballclubs since the Red Sox accomplished that same feat back in June 2006.

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July 7, 2011 9:00 am

The Asian Equation: The Decline of NPB Pitching Imports

14

Michael Street

In his fourth column in the Asian Equation series, Michael looks at the starting pitchers who have crossed the Pacific, in which many failures are punctuated with a few very notable successes.

In the flood of players coming from Japan, the majority (34 of 43) have been pitchers. Unlike the pursuit of the next Ichiro I described in my previous column, this has less to do with the success of Hideo Nomo than it does with the pitching market–pitching is a difficult commodity to find in any league. What has doomed many NPB starters in MLB, however, has been both talent and adjustment to a different pitching philosophy. To understand and explain the differences between the two, I’ve drawn not only on my own expertise, but relied on Japanese pitching expert Patrick Newman at NPB Tracker for additional insight.

Pitching differences reflect a deeper philosophical difference between Japanese and American baseball. As I discussed in my first Asian Equation column, Japanese culture appreciates baseball’s emphasis on discipline, sacrifice, and the dramatic showdown between pitcher and batter. Instead of putting a batter away quickly, NPB pitchers build tension by indiscriminately filling counts before a perfectly placed strike three resolves the battle. These aren’t seen as “wasted” pitches, instead reflecting the samurai-like virtues of endurance and dramatic battles.

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July 1, 2011 6:44 am

Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #14

3

Craig Brown

Craig checks out a slew of two-start options as we approach the All-Star break.

It’s the week before the All-Star Break, and the schedule makers were sure to cram in all the action they could ahead of the season’s pseudo midway point. Only the Phillies and Pirates have a day off this week, providing tons of options for fantasy leaguers looking for two-start pitchers.

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April 29, 2011 12:09 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Bad-Start Starter Six-Pack

24

Jay Jaffe

Which teams with rotation stalwarts sporting ERAs that resemble Olympic gymnastics scores should be panicking, and which should stay the course?

The 2011 season is still young. Teams have played anywhere from 22 to 26 games, less than one-sixth of their schedule, and we're still in small sample territory. Nonetheless, there's no shortage of players whose slow starts are keeping their managers or fans lying awake at night. Earlier this week, Steven Goldman examined a double handful of slumping hitters, surveying both their performance and their teams' alternatives for change. Today, I turn my attention to a similarly struggling set of starting pitchers who have gotten pasted more often than not this year.

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Wrapping things up by running down the National League's best candidates to benefit from hot spring starts.

Picking up where we left off on Tuesday, let’s complete our circuit of the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues by identifying some less established NL players who may have put themselves in stronger consideration for roster spots this season on the basis of small-sample spring performances thus far.

Arizona Diamondbacks

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