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07-06

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0

In-Season Fantasy Valuations: Third Edition—2017
by
Mike Gianella

06-22

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4

Dynasty Dynamics: The Saddest Milestone
by
Ben Carsley

06-21

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6

Baseball Therapy: Senior Signs
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-13

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1

Short Relief: The Freeze, The Emissaries, and a Fun Quiz
by
Emma Baccellieri, Kate Preusser and Matt Ellis

05-25

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: Fantasy Draft Rankings for Imaginary Players
by
Mike Gianella

04-14

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14

Cheese in the Kitchen: On Bat Speed and the Prospects Who Have It
by
Wilson Karaman

04-06

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: The PFM and The Model Portfolio
by
Mike Gianella

04-05

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4

TDGX Transactions: Amateur Draft
by
J.J. Jansons

04-04

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2

The Quinton: Keeper League Auction Takeaways
by
Jeff Quinton

06-06

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1

Prospectus Q&A: Jason McLeod, Cubs VP of Player Development and Amateur Scouting
by
Tim Britton

05-15

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BP Milwaukee
by
Nicholas Zettel

03-14

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33

Pebble Hunting: Should Have Taken Trout
by
Sam Miller

06-15

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14

The 2014 Redraft
by
Baseball Prospectus

06-12

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11

Some Projection Left: Draft Strategies
by
Christopher Crawford

06-11

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6

Some Projection Left: MLB Draft: Day 3 Analysis
by
Christopher Crawford

06-10

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5

Some Projection Left: MLB Draft Day 2 Analysis
by
Christopher Crawford

06-09

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28

Some Projection Left: MLB Draft Day 1 Analysis
by
Christopher Crawford

06-08

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9

Some Projection Left: Top 125 Draft Prospects
by
Christopher Crawford

06-05

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28

Some Projection Left: 2015 MLB Mock Draft
by
Christopher Crawford

06-03

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5

Some Projection Left: Draft Needs: National League
by
Christopher Crawford

06-02

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10

Some Projection Left: Draft Needs: American League
by
Christopher Crawford

05-27

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11

Some Projection Left: Top 100 Draft Prospects
by
Christopher Crawford

05-11

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16

Some Projection Left: 2015 MLB Mock Draft 1.0
by
Christopher Crawford

04-21

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19

Some Projection Left: Top 75 Draft Prospects
by
Christopher Crawford

04-02

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6

Some Projection Left: Matuella has Tommy John; Imagining the Draft That Could Have Been
by
Christopher Crawford

03-30

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2

Every Team's Moneyball: Philadelphia Phillies: Changing Habits
by
Christopher Crawford

03-26

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34

Some Projection Left: Top 50 Draft Prospects [With Aiken Update]
by
Christopher Crawford

03-23

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74

Rubbing Mud: Kris Bryant and the CBA Fight Ahead
by
Matthew Trueblood

03-23

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6

Every Team's Moneyball: Washington Nationals: On a Draft High
by
Christopher Crawford

03-12

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2

Some Projection Left: The Volatility of Youth
by
Christopher Crawford

02-17

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2

Draft Ten Pack: February 17, 2015
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

02-10

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8

An Agent's Take: So, Your Kid Might Get Drafted
by
Joshua Kusnick

01-29

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2

Baseball ProGUESTus: Why College Bats Disappeared From the Top of the Draft
by
Christopher Crawford

09-09

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4

An Agent's Take: So Long, Scout
by
Joshua Kusnick

07-30

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0

Scouting the Draft: The Cape League All-Star Game
by
Al Skorupa

07-25

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4

Skewed Left: The Mismatched Incentives of Draftees and Their Agents
by
Zachary Levine

07-23

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72

2014 Draft
by
Nick J. Faleris

06-24

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17

Baseball Therapy: Is it Really Harder to Scout in New England?
by
Russell A. Carleton

06-17

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56

The 2012 Redraft
by
Baseball Prospectus

06-11

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7

Scouting the Draft: 2014 Draft Favorites By Round
by
Nick J. Faleris

06-10

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14

The 2013 Redraft
by
Ron Shah and Baseball Prospectus

06-08

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7

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Mock Draft 2014
by
Jason Parks

06-06

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6

Round One Analysis
by
Nick J. Faleris

06-06

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24

An Agent's Take: When Post-Draft Negotiations Get Strained
by
Joshua Kusnick

06-06

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0

Raising Aces: Under the Hood of the 2014 Draft, Part Two
by
Doug Thorburn

06-05

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1

BP Unfiltered: 2014 Draft Index
by
Nick J. Faleris

06-05

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 464: Breaking Down the Amateur Draft
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-05

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3

Eyewitness Accounts: June 5, 2014
by
Ron Shah

06-05

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4

Baseball ProGUESTus: Riding Top Prospects' Coattails in the MLB Draft
by
Kevin Whitaker

06-04

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2

Draft Ten Pack: June 4, 2014
by
Nick J. Faleris and Ron Shah

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July 6, 2017 6:00 am

In-Season Fantasy Valuations: Third Edition—2017

0

Mike Gianella

How are the preseason fantasy valuations stacking up at the midpoint of 2017?

We are slightly past the halfway point of the season (in terms of games played, not the All-Star break), so it is time to look at fantasy valuation yet again.

In the linked document, you will find values through games of July 4 for:

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June 22, 2017 6:00 am

Dynasty Dynamics: The Saddest Milestone

4

Ben Carsley

Jesse Winker brings it all back for Ben's dynasty team.

Where were you Monday when Jesse Winker was called up to the majors in enough time for me to set my weekly roster for The Dynasty Guru Experts (#TDGX) dynasty league?

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June 21, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Senior Signs

6

Russell A. Carleton

How the draft actually works now.

MLB held its annual draft last week. That snoring sound that you hear is amateur scouts and prospect writers all over the country finally getting a well-deserved nap. We won’t really know the final results of the draft for another decade or so. Maybe one team just drafted two Hall of Famers, like the Royals did in 1979. As someone who is decidedly not a prospect writer, I think I’ll just pick a team at random and say that they “won” the draft. (They’re all mostly guessing anyway.)

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Emma writes some flash fiction, Kate tests you on your draft acumen, and Matt assigns representatives to all 30 teams.

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Hooray for Hollywood! From Henry Rowengartner to Clu Haywood, how much would these well-known dramaticized ballplayers go for in the fantasy game?



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Let's dip into why bat speed is one of the most important components of hitting, why there's more than one kind of bat speed, and which prospects might be best to target based on the nature of their swing.

Last week I kicked off this series with a primer, to which I will refer you with questions on the nature of this beast. For our first foray into the weeds this week, I was piqued by a question in my chat queue last week about the difference between bat speed and power. The latter is a topic I’ll surely spend a bunch of time dissecting in this space over the weeks to come, because who plays in a dynasty league and isn’t willing to trip a sibling in order to read about power-hitting prospects? For today’s run, though, we’re going to talk about bat speed.

It’s a skill that can be on the more difficult side to identify for the untrained eye—most swings taken by professional baseball players are, after all, objectively quite fast. And it’s one of those terms that even mainstream prospect reports written by not scouts will utilize frequently without much context about why it’s important. Intuitively it makes sense: if you swing faster, you have a better chance of hitting a ball that has been pitched fast. But understanding how and why certain players have better bat speed than others is useful when trying to map out valuation and a long-term dynasty league strategy.

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April 6, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The PFM and The Model Portfolio

3

Mike Gianella

Applying PFM valuations to the My Model Portfolio exercise and testing the results against mixed Tout Wars teams.

Every March, at least a few readers ask me “Why don’t you just use the PFM instead of your bids, Mike?”

Over the years, I have answered this question a few different ways. But today I thought I’d take a different approach. Inspired by a reader question last month, I decided to take the Player Forecast Manager's valuations for a 15-team mixed league and apply them to Baseball Prospectus’ My Model Portfolio exercise from March. As a reminder, this is what our authors did in that series.

In the “My Model Portfolio” series, the fantasy staff will create its own team within a $260 auction budget using Mike Gianella’s latest mixed-league Bid Limits for 2017. The scoring is 5x5 standard roto. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, 2 UTIL, and 9 P.

The Process
In this case, the process is simple. I took my mixed-league bids, took the valuations the PFM spit out for a 15-team league, and posted the results below. I started by using the 23 players who had the biggest differential between the PFM valuations and my bid limits, and kept adding players with less of a differential by position until I reached $260 in salary. As a reminder, every “winning” bid below equals my published bid limits plus one. One-dollar players on my team are those who were not listed in my bid limits.

The only change I made to this exercise is that I added a second catcher to the team and removed the second utility player, since my bids are designed to mirror the Tout Wars mixed-auction format. At the end of the season, I want to test this team not against the model portfolio teams but rather the mixed Tout Wars teams.

The Offense

Position

Player

Bid

PFM $

C

Gary Sanchez

25

$31.21

C

Brian McCann

10

$20.22

1B

Carlos Santana

15

$22.15

2B

Josh Harrison

5

$14.25

3B

Aledmys Diaz

7

$15.26

SS

Jose Reyes

6

$14.63

CI

Tommy Joseph

9

$15.43

MI

Devon Travis

3

$11.81

OF

Billy Hamilton

22

$28.54

OF

Andrew McCutchen

22

$28.78

OF

A.J. Pollock

19

$25.79

OF

Adam Jones

15

$27.21

OF

Kole Calhoun

8

$14.75

UT

Jacoby Ellsbury

8

$15.06

Total

174

$285.09


The PFM is far more conservative on the top players than I am, so there are no Mike Trouts on this squad. This goes against what Bret Sayre typically does in Tout Wars mixed, and the approach I tend to take in shallower auctions. Sanchez at $25 is the anchor for the team, but the PFM also is betting on a comeback from McCutchen and for Hamilton to finally achieve his potential.

This is a fairly risk-averse team. Where my bid limits are somewhat cautious with Joseph and Travis, the PFM believes that they’ll be solid contributors. Calhoun and Ellsbury are not the most exciting players, but the PFM thinks that they will at least contribute at the levels they did over the last few years.

The Pitching

Player

Bid

PFM $

Clayton Kershaw

42

$49.54

Dallas Keuchel

10

$17.15

John Lackey

10

$15.61

Jeff Samardzija

10

$15.79

Michael Pineda

6

$12.73

Michael Shoemaker

4

$9.48

Wei-Yin Chen

2

$9.69

Matt Andriese

1

$6.40

Mike Leake

1

$7.63

Total

86

$144.02

You can’t argue against purchasing Clayton Kershaw. While my bid limit sits at $42, it is admittedly a compromise with at least three separate goals: trying to spread money across a pitching staff, building in some risk because he is a pitcher, and also giving deference to Clayton Kershaw. I have no qualms with spending $50 or more on him in a mixed format.

The PFM spits out mostly veterans, which isn’t surprising. A former AL Cy Young winner, a reliable-yet-aging workhorse, and a solid arm who had one poor year with the White Sox back up Kershaw at $10 apiece. This is a very strong base for a pitching staff. With a pitching staff like this, my strategy typically would be to bottom out with one dollar starters and spend $77 on the entire staff.

The Prediction

This is the section of the model portfolio where our staff came up with predictions for their teams. For a league that doesn’t play out, going with a balanced team is a solid approach. Something the PFM cannot do that a human can is look for one-dollar fliers that the PFM puts below replacement level. Someone is going to get this year’s Aledmys Diaz—we just don’t know who that is yet.

I will revisit this team at the end of the regular season. Like any “test” of the PFM, it is far from perfect, but this is the goal of the PFM: to build a hypothetical team that is a successful fantasy franchise.

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April 5, 2017 6:00 am

TDGX Transactions: Amateur Draft

4

J.J. Jansons

Twenty fantasy baseball experts from around the internet compete in a deep rotisserie-style dynasty league. Get tips from the best by taking a look at this periodic analysis of their transactions.

Welcome to the first edition of this year’s TDGX Transactions. I’ll be taking the torch from the world’s foremost expert on leaping relievers, George Bissell, who did an admirable job of recapping transactions. He also had the first pick in this year’s draft, which you’ll find plenty of thoughts on below.

For those not already acquainted with The Dynasty Guru Experts League, it is a 20-team (40-man roster), 5x5 rotisserie dynasty league founded by Baseball Prospectus managing editor Bret Sayre back in 2014. It is intended to satisfy the deep-league needs of all, right down to just the right amount of Alexi Amarista. We roster 23 starters: C/1B/2B/3B/SS/MI/CI, along with two additional utility hitters, five outfielders and nine pitchers. We also roster seven bench slots and have 10 spots designated for minor leaguers, although a quick scan of the league finds that most teams utilize a majority of their bench spots for additional prospects. That means there are an additional 100-120 prospects that are rostered above the 200 spots reserved for them.

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April 4, 2017 6:00 am

The Quinton: Keeper League Auction Takeaways

2

Jeff Quinton

Attention, rebuilding teams: Fear not what early and active bidding can do for the quality of your draft.

Last weekend I partook in my respective AL-only and NL-only keeper auctions. Before we get to the takeaways, some background information as to where this year’s takeaways are coming from:

After spending the second half of 2014 rebuilding in the AL and all of 2014 rebuilding in the NL, I came into 2015 fully stocked with keepers, picks, and minor leaguers with the full intention of competing for championships; ditto 2016. The takeaways from my “Keeper League Auction Takeaways” articles over the past two years have thus come from someone entering the auctions with very few players to select (I often kept the max or nearly the max number of keepers—15.)

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'You go from picking top 10 four years straight to picking 104. What doesn't change is our preparation and our expectation to do well.'

Jason McLeod's first-ever draft pick as a scouting director was Dustin Pedroia, 65th overall in 2004. Since that point, in stints with the Red Sox, Padres and Cubs, McLeod has overseen the selections of talents such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Anthony Rizzo, Joe Ross, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber.

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May 15, 2016 6:03 am

BP Milwaukee

0

Nicholas Zettel

Correcting the extremes that populate draft analysis.

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Measuring the scale of a single draft pick.

"We're going to take this kid with our first pick," Bane reportedly told his staff. "The problem is that he's not going to be there. He's too good." –San Francisco Chronicle

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