It's in the agent's interest to get the most money for his players. That's true... mostly.
When the Astros last took us back to economics class, it was for what was generally regarded as a good thing on their end. They showed how a team can use not only their leverage, but the misaligned incentives of individual players and their collective to get what appeared to be a good deal for Jon Singleton. (Whether or not Singleton’s .179/.263/.340 start with a 37 percent strikeout rate changes your opinion of the deal now, the economics do not change.)
Now somehow, a month later, we’re back. It’s probably not a coincidence that it’s the Astros again. This is what they do. From the first pick of baseball’s new amateur economy, this is what they’ve done. They play with the rules, they use their leverage, and now they’re going to be one No. 1 overall draft pick short of a trio at Camp Kissimmee next year.
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The Astros had a plan that was too good to fail. So good, in fact, that they left no room for what would happen when it did.
As the clock struck seven on the evening of June 5th, the Houston Astros stared with wide eyes at a deep draft board. The organization held a handful of early picks and $13,362,200 in available spending, the most of any team, putting it in an position to load up its minor-league system with high-level draft talent. But 42 days and 22 hours after the Astros announced the first selection of the 2014 draft, the front office somehow found itself with one of the lightest pulls of the draft, a bruised reputation, and public scorn from both the MLB Players’ Association and one of the game’s most high profile agents.
What explains the low success rate of amateur prospects from the Northeast?
The Cape Cod League is the premier summer baseball league for college players. A good summer on The Cape might just make you a million dollars at draft time. I’m told there’s also a local professional team in the New England area that has had some recent success too, so good for them. And yet, in scouting circles, New England is seen as something of a desert wasteland. The standard explanation is that sure, there are athletes good enough to play professional baseball in New England. The problem is that players in Stars Hollow, Connecticut just don’t get the reps that they do in Georgia, because there’s a lot more baseball weather (read: time that it isn’t snowing) in the South.
Who won, who lost, and who got left behind in the 2012 draft? Let's redraft and find out.
It's been just over two years since the 2012 draft, and we've gotten a good look at how that crop of highly touted amateurs has has performed in the pros. To see how much perceptions of those players have changed, we decided to do the draft over again (just as we did with the 2013 draft last week), assigning 30 picks to BP authors and re-drafting from scratch, selecting only from the pool of players who were picked last year. Here's how the first-round re-draft shook out.
1:1 Houston Astros Actual Selection:Carlos Correa, SS Re-Draft Selection:Mike Zunino, C, Mariners (2012 no. 3 pick) Draft Position Change: +2 Explanation: He's not only made the big leagues, but he's the Mariners’ no. 1 catcher. We've discovered that Zunino has special framing and blocking abilities, so he's already an impact player. If his on-base skills develop, he could be one of the hidden elite players in baseball, like Jonathan Lucroy or Brian McCann. —Harry Pavlidis
For fun, Nick picks his favorite selection in each of the first 10 rounds of the 2014 First Year Player Draft.
During my Draft Wrap Chat here at Baseball Prospectus, a reader asked me for my favorite draft picks by round. I thought that was a fun question, but wanted to answer in a manner that offered a little more explanation for my selections. That's what you see below---my favorite picks for the first ten rounds (with the first and second rounds, which were larger in scope, broken down into two sections each). Hope you have as much fun reading as I did putting it together!
Who won, who lost, and who got left behind in the 2013 draft? Let's redraft and find out.
It's been a year since the 2013 draft, and we've gotten a good look at how the last crop of highly touted amateurs has has performed in the pros. To see how much perceptions of those players have changed, we decided to do the draft over again, assigning 27 picks to BP authors and re-drafting from scratch, selecting only from the pool of players who were picked last year. Here's how the first-round re-draft shook out.
1:1 Houston Astros
Actual Selection: Mark Appel
Re-Draft Selection: Kris Bryant (2013 no. 2 pick)
Reason: What has Bryant done in pro ball? Rake. In his first full season, Bryant has a slash line of .346/.453/.682 with 19 HR, plenty of strikeouts but also plenty of walks. His stock has risen because he's proven he's simply the best player from the draft by hitting for average, power and even stolen some bases. As long as Bryant continues to rake I'll continue my love for him, as will everyone else. – CJ Wittmann Analysis: Bryant moves up one spot from where he was actually taken, claiming the coveted no. 1 overall selection. The 22-year-old is terrorizing minor-league pitching and looks to be a cut above the rest of his peers from the 2013 draft class.
Pick: 1:1 Team:Houston Astros Projected Selection:Brady Aiken Reason: Since Jeff Luhnow jumped behind the wheel of the Astros franchise, the team has been in the business of selling hope, which they cryptically bottle in their own process, and deliver from within by growing an infrastructure of young, cost-controllable talent. But up until now, this talent was merely physically impressive on the field and not all that aesthetically pleasing in the face. Things will change on that front, as I have it from a good source that the Astros’ Laboratory of Analytical Science Conclusions has discovered this weakness and will work to correct the deficiency by drafting Brady Aiken, a high school lefty with a tan that just won’t quit and a facial bone structure of an in-demand and slightly Scandinavian Tommy Hilfiger model. Bonus that he’s a lefty that can actually pitch.
Reviewing the first 17 picks in this year's draft.
The first 74 picks are in the books for the 2014 First Year Player Draft, with Brady Aiken (LHP, Cathedral Catholic (San Diego, CA)) the first high school lefty since Brien Taylor (East Carteret (Beaufort, NC)), some 23 years ago, to go first overall.
An agent recounts two times when his negotiations after the amateur draft didn't go as expected.
Joshua Kusnick is an MLBPA-certified agent who periodically writes about his experiences representing professional players. You can reach him via email at JoshuaKusnick@aol.com and on Twitter @JoshuaKusnick.
Mechanical looks at four more first-rounders selected in the first round of the amateur draft.
The first round of the 2014 draft was saturated with arms, as teams popped pitchers with 13 of the top 19 picks. It may have been the result of an arm-heavy draft class, or perhaps teams are stockpiling moundsmen in the wake of the UCL epidemic of 2014; either way, the plethora of pitcher names called on day one of the draft was anticipated by the BP Prospect Staff in their “whom would you draft” mock that was conducted throughout the month of May. The exercise produced a match with reality at the top of the draft, nailing the identity and order of the first three players (and pitchers) picked: Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek, and Carlos Rodon. I tackled that big three last week in Part One of the “Under the Hood” series, along with Jeff Hoffman, whose recent trip under the knife did little to drop his stock, as the Blue Jays snapped him up ninth overall.
All of our pre-draft coverage, featuring hundreds of scouting reports, as well as mock drafts, player updates, case studies, the video library and more.
Below you will find links to our amateur content from this spring, including notes and video of the top prospects in this year’s draft class. It was a meaty spring on the draft content side, and we expect it to grow even more next year. Thanks for following us throughout the last four months, and we hope you’ll enjoy the 2014 draft content still to come!