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Articles Tagged Draft Pick Compensation 

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A potentially overpaid outfielder turns out to be a bargain, and the Yankees and Red Sox add injury prone arms.



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Why it's time to do away with draft pick compensation.

The most common (and my favorite) type of question that we get for our Effectively Wild email shows goes something like this:

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Our first look inside the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

This is Part 1 of a multi-part series on the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement

On November 22 of last year, Major League Baseball and the MLBPA did something that the NFL and the NBA could not: reached a new labor agreement without a work stoppage. For those that follow baseball’s labor history, it has become a miraculous run. By the time the current five-year Basic Agreement (read here) expires on December 1, 2016, it will have been 21 years of uninterrupted labor peace.

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Giving up draft selections as compensation for signing free agents has often proved to be disastrous.

When Frankie Frisch, Hall of Fame infielder and manager, became a broadcaster, he became known for bemoaning walks. “Oh, those bases on balls,” he would cry whenever a pitcher put his team in a tough spot by throwing four out of the strike zone. If he was around today, he might be saying, “Oh, those compensatory draft picks.”

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June 7, 2010 8:42 am

Ahead in the Count: Production and the Draft

4

Matt Swartz

The players teams select in the draft over the next three days can make a big impact on their future.

The 2010 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft begins tonight, presumably commencing with the Washington Nationals calling the name of Bryce Harper.  The draft will be televised for the fourth year in a row, thanks to increasing fan interest.  Unlike basketball and football with well-exposed college stars that fans are already familiar with, the baseball draft has always been filled with obscure names and generated less interest historically.  However, the collective bargaining agreement in Major League Baseball keeps salaries of young talent especially suppressed when compared with other sports, meaning that drafting well can allow even a small-market team to become successful.  As fans have become more cognizant of this, and as the Internet has made learning about amateur stars easier, the draft has become a bigger deal and more people are taking more notice.

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BP's in-house guru takes his shot at projecting how team's top picks go next week.

1. Washington Nationals: This is now a no-brainer. Over the course of the spring, we've slowly gone from "Will they take Harper?" to "Will they sign Haper?" to "How much will they pay Harper?" He's going No. 1, and you could even end up seeing a creative deal that, on paper, gets him more than Stephen Strasburg received.

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April 23, 2010 12:07 pm

Ahead in the Count: Methodology of The New MORP

5

Matt Swartz

Here is how we're now figuring the monetary value of individual players.

This article will follow up on the new version of MORP that I introduced yesterday with a more thorough description of my methodology and my reasoning for it. Firstly, I will restate that the definition of MORP (Market value Over Replacement Player) is the marginal cost of acquiring a player’s contribution on the free-agent market. The basic structure that I am using includes adjusting for draft-pick compensation, which adds to the value of free agents by 10-20 percent. It also looks at all players with six years or more of major-league service time, all years of their free-agent contracts, and makes valuations of their performance based on actual performance rather than the projections, which are biased. I am also adjusting MORP so it is linear with respect to WARP. The discussion of linearity and of the decision to use actual rather than projected performance to evaluate contracts has been detailed in earlier articles, and I won’t reiterate them here in the interest of space. The basic reason why linearity is a fair assumption is that teams frequently have enough vacancies that they can add the number of wins they choose without filling them all. There are exceptions like the 2009 Yankees, who added three front-of-the-rotation starters and an elite first baseman in one offseason. However, even the Yankees do this infrequently enough that it does not regularly impact the market, and without two teams bidding for several superstars every offseason, this is not a large issue. The reason that using projection is so problematic was detailed last week, when I showed how free agents who reach the open market are a biased sample and regularly underperform their projections. For more details of these results, please see my previous work. Here are links to my three part series as well as my article on free agents underperforming their PECOTA projections. I will introduce some of the newer concepts in this article.

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April 22, 2010 11:20 am

Ahead in the Count: Reintroducing MORP

5

Matt Swartz

Updating BP's metric measuring the monetary value of a player's production.

When the Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers after the 2007 season along with Dontrelle Willis for a handful of prospects, the familiar voices echoed with the following summary: "Baseball is a business." They talked about how the Marlins "could not afford" to keep those players as their salaries escalated, and would only be able to watch them walk away when they became free agents. That’s what they said, at least. Now, the same "they" are outraged that Forbes reported that the Marlins reported the highest profit of any team last season. Clearly, they infer, the Marlins can afford the talent, but choose not to.

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February 23, 2009 1:36 pm

Prospectus Today: First-Round Picks!

18

Joe Sheehan

Why the non-controversy over Type-A compensation in this winter's cold market needs to be seen as such.

In the discussion of Type-A free agents this winter, the term "first-round pick" is used about as often as "the" or "of." The perceived relative values of major league talent and first-round draft picks have been moving in opposite directions for a long time, and it appears that this winter, the two have crossed. Teams are less willing than ever to sign players and sacrifice that selection in the upcoming draft, and they're becoming more aware of how important good young baseball players who can be paid well below market value are to a baseball team.

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February 17, 2009 1:05 pm

Prospectus Today: Changing the Game?

43

Joe Sheehan

Adapting the rules governing free agency might seem like sound policy, until you consider the impact on past actions and future offseasons.

Well, this is a ridiculous notion:

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Every winter involves some railing at the industry's wacky-pack free agent rankings--what gives?

Every year, one of the first steps in the free agent dance is the ranking of players who finished the year on major league rosters for purposes of compensation. Under baseball's Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), teams that lose a free agent may be entitled to additional picks in the next year's Rule 4 amateur draft, depending on how good the free agent is.

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January 31, 2007 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Hidden Market Boost

0

Rany Jazayerli

A small change to the CBA had a very large effect on this winter's free-agent market, and will have one on the upcoming draft as well.

Part of the allure of baseball is that, while players and teams come and go, the game itself changes at such a glacial pace that a 90-year-old fan today would have trouble coming up with any differences between the games he watched as a child from the game he sees today. Basketball before the invention of the shot clock was a vastly different game than the one played today. The shot clock wasn't even adopted by the NCAA until Michael Jordan had already left school. Football adds and subtracts penalties like an accountant furiously trying to make the books balance. The NHL made more rule changes after their lost season of two years ago than Major League Baseball has made since 1920.

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