The Tigers prospect reflects on a challenging season.
Spencer Turnbull laughed a little when he reflected on his time rehabbing in the GCL.
He paused, contemplating what he’d learned on the difficult road back from rehab appearances, designed to help him recover from a shoulder injury that kept him out for the first three months of the season. He then spent another three weeks laid up with an oblique injury.
The Tigers, left for dead after last season, have defied expectations.
The Tigers have to go for it, this year. There’s really no debate here. The aging core of Miguel Cabrera (33 years old, .310 TAv, 2.0 WARP), Justin Verlander (33, 87 cFIP, 2.82 DRA, 3.4 WARP), Victor Martinez (37, .305, 1.3), and Ian Kinsler (34, .303, 2.6) will never be this productive again—even if you figure it’s actuarially unlikely that they’ll sustain their current levels for even the rest of this year. Nick Castellanos (24, .301, 2.1) is having a great season, and maybe it’s the beginning of his emergence into the star slugger the Tigers envisioned years ago—he’s still young. Then again, maybe it’s the juiced ball, or maybe he’s just run into a few balls and generated a transformed batting line that belies relatively unchanged underlying skills. (He still strikes out a lot, and still doesn’t walk very much, for instance.)
Cameron Maybin is having an insane season, riding a carriage that could turn back into a pumpkin almost anytime, but which gives the Tigers a legitimate, well-rounded offense for as long as it lasts. Justin Upton has slowly come around (.246/.319/.434 since June 1), and J.D. Martinez will be back before the end of July (you know, maybe). Wonder of wonders, the Tigers have a competent bullpen right now. Francisco Rodriguez has brought stability to the closer’s role, and working backward from there, Alex and Justin Wilson, Kyle Ryan, and the somehow-only-25-year-old Bruce Rondon have done decent work in piecing together the rest.
The White Sox hit seven home runs, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Carrasco toss four-hitters, and Jose Altuve goes for the cycle.
The Weekend Takeaway
There are no givens in baseball. A 10-run lead can evaporate under the misdirection of a tired bullpen, a no-hitter can be lost on a misplayed fly ball, and a ninth-inning tie can be broken on a walk-off balk. Still, there are certain markers which, once they are passed, provide a feeling of security.
Fielder for Kinsler was supposed to be the fix for both teams' surpluses, but the 2016 season has put the clubs' returns in stark relief.
Three offseasons ago—November 20, 2013 to be exact—Detroit and Texas made a rare one-for-one, star-for-star trade between contending teams, with the Tigers sending five-time All-Star first baseman Prince Fielder to the Rangers in exchange for three-time All-Star second baseman Ian Kinsler. In addition to the obvious star power involved, this particular trade had some interesting money-related factors and featured the analytical juxtaposition of a traditional slugger with shiny RBI totals and negative defensive value being swapped for an up-the-middle defender with less of a bat and a far more varied all-around game.
Three-and-a-half years later the trade looks like a blowout victory for the Tigers, to the extent that they added one of the best all-around infielders in the league and saddled the Rangers with a bad player on an albatross contract that runs through 2020 at an annual salary of $24 million. All of which is much different than things appeared around this time last year when Fielder, not Kinsler, was chosen for the All-Star team on the strength of his .339/.403/.521 first half that seemed to be proof of a full recovery from the neck surgery that halted his first season in Texas after 42 games.
Fielder’s production fell off in the second half, as he hit .264/.348/.394, and this season he’s been arguably the worst everyday player in baseball. WARP sees him as producing the sixth-worst overall value, with all five of the lower-WARP players—A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Teixeira, Dioner Navarro, Ryan Howard, Chris Coghlan—playing part-time or sitting on the disabled list. Fielder has started 67 of 72 games for the Rangers, hitting .203/.273/.325 with his usual bad defense and poor baserunning, which is how he’s the lone big leaguer with more than 200 plate appearances and a WARP worse than -1.0. Dating back to last year’s All-Star break Fielder has hit a combined .235/.313/.356 in 140 games.
Michael Fulmer goes streaking, Edwin Encarnacion remembers how to hit home runs, and Cole Hamels tries out a new look.
The Weekend Takeaway
It’s always nice when you can look back on a trade that erased Yoenis Cespedes from your lineup and smile. This was the general feeling on Sunday when right-hander Michael Fulmer dismantled the Yankees with another six scoreless frames, extending his streak to 23 ⅓ innings without a run. It’s a streak worth preserving, and one that’s already made history, according to ESPN Stats & Info: