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Articles Tagged Dead-arm Period 

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February 6, 2007 12:00 am

Future Shock: Tampa Bay Devil Rays Top Ten Prospects

0

Kevin Goldstein

Perhaps the game's best collection of young talent means the days of the Devil Rays as AL East bottom-feeders are numbered.

Excellent Prospects
1. Delmon Young, RF
2. Evan Longoria, 3B
3. Reid Brignac, SS
4. Jeff Niemann, RHP
Very Good Prospects
5. Jacob McGee, LHP
6. Wade Davis, RHP
7. Elijah Dukes, OF/1B
Good Prospects
8. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
Average Prospects
9. Elliot Johnson, 2B
10. Matt Walker, RHP

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October 6, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three

0

Joe Sheehan

The Yankees continued their run through the ... hey, not so fast! In San Diego, the Cardinals continued to make a statement about the importance of home-field advantage, while in New York the Mets were the one team to keep order in the first two games.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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Playing safe with Pedro, more bad news for Eric Gagne, and some numbers to back up an observation, all in today's UTK.

Powered by a powerful new front end to the injury database, on to the injuries:

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August 26, 2005 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: August 19-25

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Christina Kahrl

Chris has notes on teams reacquiring former players, and the last minute roster tinkerings before next week's roster expansion.

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May 27, 2004 12:00 am

Under The Knife: Carb Day

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Will Carroll

Thursday in Indianapolis is so big, the state should just go ahead and call it a holiday. At the Indy 500, the Thursday before the race is called "Carburetion Day," or to locals, "Carb Day." In the heyday of the race, all 33 cars would be out on the track making final adjustments to their setups. From then on, the cars are locked down until Sunday morning. Of course, it's been years since there were actually carburetors on these million-dollar engines, but the name still holds. It's a tradition that, with the changes at the Speedway, have become a shell of the past--but it's still pretty great. It's impressive that 50,000 people watching cars practice can be considered failure, that pit-stops can be turned into a spectator sport, and that more beer will be consumed in five hours than at all seven games of the last five World Series. What makes me sad is that the good old days seem to keep some from appreciating what we have now. Baseball is like that some days. People pine for the days that probably weren't as good as they remember. Worse, they actively try to pull baseball back into the mythic grasp of the few. It's just another battle in the war that has been raging for the last 30 or 40 years. Some want you to believe that baseball is myth, and that only they can give you a peek inside the mystical workings of the game. Others show that anyone with an original thought and sufficient effort can open the game up and make it better, whether they're a national columnist, a writer in Kansas, or a guy who talks about groin pulls with an uncomfortable regularity. Baseball belongs to all of us, and shame on anyone that tries to take it away. On to the injuries...

Baseball is like that some days. People pine for the days that probably weren't as good as they remember. Worse, they actively try to pull baseball back into the mythic grasp of the few. It's just another battle in the war that has been raging for the last 30 or 40 years. Some want you to believe that baseball is myth, and that only they can give you a peek inside the mystical workings of the game. Others show that anyone with an original thought and sufficient effort can open the game up and make it better, whether they're a national columnist, a writer in Kansas, or a guy who talks about groin pulls with an uncomfortable regularity.

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June 23, 2003 12:00 am

Under The Knife: Recovering the Satellites

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Will Carroll

Billy Koch said that his current "dead arm" period is forcing him to learn to pitch. I guess if I had high-90s heat, I might be inclined to just try and throw it by everyone, but somewhere--perhaps after Tommy John surgery or when he was with Rick Peterson--shouldnt he have learned just a little bit about pitching? Changing speeds and hitting spots is a good thing, even with that heater in your arsenal. Most pitchers would love to have a live arm that was in the 92 range, let alone a dead one at those velocities. The Expos have been very encouraged by reports surrounding the rehab of Vlad Guerrero. Its pretty clear at this point that Guerrero will avoid surgery in the near term, but as he transitions from physical therapy to baseball activities over the next week, his ability to remain healthy will come into question. Jeff Kent had a cortisone injection in his left wrist to try and control some "raging tendinitis." This problem is nothing along the lines of those experienced by Nick Johnson or Travis Hafner, but wrist problems do have a tendency to heal slowly and fitfully. This injury could rob Kent of some power, at least in the short term, and the DL is not out of the question.

  • The Diamondbacks should be praised for their transparency regarding the rehab schedule for Randy Johnson. Instead, too many people want to question the veracity or motive behind its publication. The fact is that columns like this or sites like RotoWire would have the information anyway through our sources, so why hide it? Johnson is due back just after the All-Star break, but there's plenty of room in the schedule--especially the two Triple-A starts--for adjustment or setback. From the info we have, the post-All-Star break date looks pretty good; and remember, this isn't an arm problem. Johnson should be effective almost as soon as he's ready.
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    June 11, 2003 12:00 am

    Under The Knife: Mussina Murmurs

    0

    Will Carroll

    Some have noted that Mike Mussina appears to be running into trouble in the fifth or sixth innings and have asked if the Velocity Project is showing anything. The answer is no. It appears more that as he begins to tire, he throws more strikes and becomes more hittable. More hittable is bad, no matter what theory you believe in. Is it an indicator of an injury? No, I don't think so. I'm less sure that it's not simple aging. Ask me the same question about Al Leiter and you'll get a similar answer. After noticing a lack of muscle tone and getting Ellis Burks to admit to both pain and numbness in his hand, a series of tests were run to try and find a cause. It turns out that his ulnar nerve was impinged and caused all the problems. It will likely need to be surgically released and could cost Burks a good portion of the remaining season. With his career near its last legs, this trip to the DL could be the one that leads off into the sunset. The Indians brought up another piece of the future, Coco Crisp, to replace Burks. Some combination of Crisp, Jody Gerut, and Milton Bradley would be one heck of a young outfield. If you thought Jermaine Dye still didn't look right, you're right. His knee is still acting up and needed draining tonight between BP and the game. It's the legs that drain power when they're injured, so don't expect Dye to look like the masher he has been until he fully recovers the strength in his legs. Even with that bad wheel, Dye was able to make some nice defensive plays behind Tim Hudson.

  • Some have noted that Mike Mussina appears to be running into trouble in the fifth or sixth innings and have asked if the Velocity Project is showing anything. The answer is no. It appears more that as he begins to tire, he throws more strikes and becomes more hittable. More hittable is bad, no matter what theory you believe in. Is it an indicator of an injury? No, I don't think so. I'm less sure that it's not simple aging. Ask me the same question about Al Leiter and you'll get a similar answer.
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    June 10, 2003 12:00 am

    Under The Knife: Study Your Pain

    0

    Will Carroll

    The Cardinals summoned Jason Isringhausen from his rehab assignment to Boston on Monday. While the assumption is that he will be activated and available when they resume play in Fenway on Tuesday, the Cardinals aren't yet committing to the move. By the time you read this, the Cardinals will have made the move, but waiting and evaluating is the smart thing to do in this case. The usage patterns of Isringhausen will remain an open question even after he is activated. I remain unconvinced that Izzy is anything more than an injury time bomb, waiting to explode inside an unsuspecting bullpen. While A.J. Burnett sits and waits for his elbow to heal enough to just play catch again, Josh Beckett is hoping to avoid the same fate. The Marlins appear to be cautious with the comeback of their young potential ace, but if you try and figure out what the Marlins have in mind, you'll often find yourself grabbing nothing but smoke. Beckett was back on a mound for the first time, throwing occasional breaking balls in a 50-pitch workout. (Odd how the Marlins learn to count during rehabilitation work.) Beckett remains on target for a July 1 return, but the caution could push him back to the All-Star break or further. Mike Hampton's injured groin will only cause one missed start for him. For the Braves, the interleague schedule and the extra off days should help Cox and Mazzone juggle the rotation without taxing the staff. Hampton will likely be back on the mound by the weekend.

    (OK, game over...congrats to the Devils. Enjoy taking the Cup to the Bada Bing.)

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    Will Carroll chimes in with a UTK Sunday Extra, reporting on Ken Griffey's latest injury, plus status reports on Derek Jeter, Kevin Millwood, and more.

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