Mike reviews the results of two of his auctions, one for each league.
Like most of my readers, I devour every scrap of expert-league auction data I can get my hands on before the season starts. However, while useful, expert auctions are almost always start-over. While this gives a decent baseline for raw values, it isn’t very instructive as to what might happen when you start dealing with keepers, reserve lists, and other twists on the rules that cater more to carryover leagues.
Below is a brief recap of what I did in my two longstanding keeper auctions this past weekend. While nearly all of us are done drafting or auctioning, looking back at what we did right as well as what we did wrong can be very instructive.
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The Padres are off to a horrible start, so a housecleaning might be forthcoming. Who stays and who goes?
The San Diego Padres, perhaps predictably, have gotten off to a miserable start in 2012. Although expectations were not high coming into the season, almost nothing has gone right for the club. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, not to mention ongoing ownership/television deal issues (I live 15 minutes from Petco Park and cannot watch the team on TV in my home, which might qualify as “charmingly retro” if it weren't so annoying), the Padres are staring at their worst-case scenario only a month into the campaign.
Last week, Kevin Goldsteinsuggested that a “housecleaning in San Diego could be coming.” Reader pobothecat wondered what such a housecleaning might look like, and so did I.
For the most part, I love the Japanese games that kick off the season. (To be fair, I’m not a fan of Oakland or Seattle, and it’s not my team that’s playing in the middle of the night.) It’s fun to get a sneak preview of real baseball and even more fun to have a game that comes on when you wake up in the morning, right? Yet it’s also somewhat disconcerting, because after you’ve seen the real thing and had stats that count appear in your fantasy lineup, we now have to go back and sit through another week of exhibition games before we can get down to business.
If you haven’t yet drafted or are still making decisions, here are three starting pitchers to keep an eye on.
Now that the regular season has wrapped up, here's a look at who BP staffers think should win the major awards.
Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff choices for the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results.
For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
A look into the mind of the champion of Tout Wars NL, Steve Gardner
At the end of every season, something I have always found helpful is to talk to the people who won their leagues to see how it all came together for them. Over the next couple of weeks, I will interview each of the three winners from Tout Wars to see what their secrets for success were in hopes that you can apply some of that wisdom to your own pursuit of 2012 fantasy success. The first interview was with USA Today’s Steve Gardner, who won the NL-only league by 8.5 points.
Uneven outings for Jake Peavy and Cory Luebke, plus thoughts on the ChiSox bench.
CAMELBACK RANCH—Seeing Jake Peavy take the mound is always going to be interesting, for any of a number of reasons. You might be wondering whether Kenny Williams is going to get any significant fraction of value for the former Pads ace that he acquired under circumstances almost as controversial as those that attended the addition of Alex Rios, or merely skeptical that Peavy can be good for 26 starts this season (where we've got him initially for 2006). How he does is no minor matter: with that projected playing time, PECOTA pegs Peavy as the club's top pitcher via WARP (4.0) and VORP (38.8).
Every new day with Peavy on the mound represents a new, interesting suggestion that maybe, just maybe, Herm Schneider's White Sox training staff have pulled off another of the everyday miraculous recoveries that have ranked theirs among the best training-room units in the game. However, there's also the necessary grind of getting in gear, and yesterday's contest was a great example of process. Peavy's coming along well, but he's also not all there yet, as a series of near-misses and struggles to get out of jams because of problems pitching from the stretch finally came to a head in the fourth inning, when he gave up three runs. In the second and third innings, Peavy got the first two outs, only to put a man on, then each time give up a base hit to a lefty hitter while pitching from the stretch. In the fourth, he didn't get the benefit of the early outs, as Cameron Maybin led off with a single through the infield, with two lefty batters due. Cedric Hunter then doubled, scoring Maybin, and Mike Baxter homered.
Placed RHP Vicente Padilla on the 15-day DL (bulging disk - neck), retroactive to 8/16; recalled RHP Travis Schlichting from Albuquerque (Triple-A). [8/20]
Activated LF-R Manny Ramirez from the 15-day DL; designated INF-R Juan Castro for assignment. [8/21]
Placed RHP Travis Schlichting on the 15-day DL (shoulder); activated RHP Jeff Weaver from the 15-day DL; claimed C-R Rod Barajas from the Mets off waivers. [8/22]
Activated C-R Rod Barajas; optioned C-R A.J. Ellis to Albuquerque. [8/24]
Noted the loss of LF-R Manny Ramirez on a waiver claim by the White Sox; recalled RHP Ramon Troncoso from Albuquerque. [8/30]
Activated RHP Vicente Padilla and SS-S Rafael Furcal from the 15-day DL; recalled C-R A.J. Ellis from Albuquerque. [9/3]
Recalled RHPs John Ely and Jon Link and MI-R Chin-lung Hu from Albuquerque; purchased the contracts of 1B-R John Lindsey and UT-R Russ Mitchell from Albuquerque; transferred C-R Russell Martin from the 15- to the 60-day DL. [9/6]
Purchased the contract of OF-L Trent Oeltjen from Albuquerque; designated INF-R Ronnie Belliard for assignment. [9/7]
Released INF-R Ronnie Belliard. [9/9]
Traded RHP Octavio Dotel to the Rockies for a PTBNL. [9/18]
Traded OF-R Preston Mattingly to the Indians for OF-L Roman Pena. [9/26]
Fantasy Beat has been focusing on some National League players worth noting in keeper leagues. Which starting pitchers should you be looking at?
Let us wrap up Keepers Week with the most interesting fantasy baseball people: starting pitchers. (Okay, I may be biased a little.) In keeper leagues, you have to be ruthless with your pitching staff, willing to cut anybody at any time. That is why, earlier this season, I suggested that Johan Santana is someone you may consider passing onto somebody else before he explodes, despite the fact that he has a sub-three ERA. The National League pitchers I will be naming below are those I feel are good bets to provide solid production not only in 2011 but in years beyond.
One of the Padres' pitching prospects takes his first turn in the majors tonight--does he have any fantasy value in 2010 or beyond?
The Padres have had mostly good health this season in the rotation, only losing out on Chris Young for an extended period of time. With many young starters on the roster though, they do want to give the group some extra rest when possible. Because of this, Cory Luebke will make his major league debut tonight after being part of the group called up when rosters expanded earlier this week. Luebke was somewhat unheralded coming into the season, as he ranked as the #12 prospect in the organization heading into the year and profiled as a back-end starter. He's succeeded at the higher levels of the minors though, and may have pitched his way into a 2011 job because of it--tonight is something of a test and a reward for a season well done.
The Padres first pick in the 2007 draft (a supplemental pick, #63 overall) started the year at Double-A, where he finished the 2009 campaign. He whiffed 7.0 per nine innings pitched once again, but his walk rate was markedly better, dropping from an uncharacteristically high 3.3 down to 1.9, which is more in his range. Following a promotion to Triple-A Portland, the left kept his punch outs up near his Double-A rates, and his walk rate climbed but only to 2.7 per nine, still well below the league average.