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Articles Tagged Corey Patterson 

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Who are some of the top one-year wonders in baseball history?



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June 30, 2010 8:00 am

Transaction Action: Disorderly Conduct

6

Christina Kahrl

The Red Sox retrench, the A's fritter, and more moves made on the AL side of the beat.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Placed OF-R Lou Montanez on the 15-day DL(strained oblique). [6/25]
Recalled RHP Brad Bergesen from Norfolk (Triple-A). [6/26]
Designated 1B-R Garrett Atkins for assignment; activated RHP Koji Uehara from the 15-day DL. [6/27]

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June 24, 2010 10:22 am

Transaction Action: Fiddling While the Toast Burns

10

Christina Kahrl

One more Patterson gets scorched, ongoing outfield roulette in Boston, and more.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Acquired 5C-R Jake Fox from the A's for RHP Ross Wolf; optioned RHP Chris Tillman to Norfolk (Triple-A); designated RHP Cla Meredith for assignment. [6/22]

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January 9, 2008 12:00 am

Player Profile: Corey Patterson

0

Marc Normandin

Can the game's former best prospect bounce back and be a late-winter bargain as a free agent?

Sifting through the remaining free agents shows us that the available options are mostly part-time players, guys coming off of disappointing campaigns, or Barry Bonds. It's not clear which non-Bonds classification Corey Patterson belongs to yet, considering some of the seasons he's had in the past are on both the positive and negative ends of the production spectrum. Is Patterson still capable of a few more productive seasons, or is he more likely to be a speedy fourth outfielder from here on out?

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July 25, 2003 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: July 7-20

0

Christina Kahrl

Bill Stoneman and Mike Scioscia get rewarded for 2002. The Indians and Rangers swap pitching prospect for hitting prospect. The Yankees grab Armando Benitez in a non-Sierran move. The Jays get a steal in Stewart-for-Kielty. These and other tidbits, plus a full array of Kahrlisms, in this edition of Transaction Analysis.

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In an article that appeared last week on ESPN.com, Peter Gammons provided a list of 20 players whom respondants to an informal straw poll described as candidates for a breakout season. The list, derived from a survey of major league executives, included a mix of pitchers and hitters, five-tool talents and makeup guys, united only in their ability to tease hibernating fantasy leaguers into dreams of greener days ahead. If one needs any reminder that lists like these are little more than a grownup's version of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, it's worth reviewing a similar list that Gammons produced last year.

In an article that appeared last week on ESPN.com, Peter Gammons provided a list of 20 players whom respondants to an informal straw poll described as candidates for a breakout season. The list, derived from a survey of major league executives, included a mix of pitchers and hitters, five-tool talents and makeup guys, united only in their ability to tease hibernating fantasy leaguers into dreams of greener days ahead.

If one needs any reminder that lists like these are little more than a grownup's version of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, it's worth reviewing a similar list that Gammons produced last year. That list includes roughly equal representation of the good (Alfonso Soriano and Derek Lowe), the bad (J.D. Drew), and the ugly (Juan Uribe), as well as four players whose performances were so impressive that they made repeat appearances on this year's list.

Now, none of this is meant to be a knock on Gammons, or the lists he has compiled. Everybody likes to talk about breakout candidates this time of year, ourselves included (Eddie Yarnall, anyone?). Having formerly moonlighted as a daily team correspondent for another baseball website, I can attest to the fact that virtually every player provides at least some excuse each winter for gushing commentary, delusions of grandeur, or other forms of irrational exuberance.

As it happens, however, we're unrolling a new forecasting system at BP this year--one that is also preoccupied with the question of breakout candidates. The PECOTA system--short for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm--seeks to identify potential breakouts by comparing a player against a database of his historical peers. In so doing, it comes up with an objective estimate of the probability that a player will display marked improvement in the upcoming season (defined as an increase of at least 20% in his Equivalent Runs per plate appearance, or a decrease of at least 20% in his PERA, relative to a weighted average of his previous three years of performance). We refer to this estimate as a player's Breakout score. Readers interested in a more extensive treatment of the PECOTA system will find it in this year's book, and in the PECOTA glossary provided here.

One brief caveat: the PECOTA system is new technology. That doesn't mean that we stole it from the Raelians, or that we haven’t tested it thoroughly. But sometimes PECOTA provides us with definitive and unexpected answers, and we need to work backwards to try and explain why they came about. That's a bastardization of the scientific method, and I'll ask that you'll excuse me as I run through the hitters on Gammons' list.

Rank on Gammons List, Player, PECOTA Breakout Score

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Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
Part Five
Part Six

First, let's recap the complete Top 40 lists for each publication, along with the grade for each player:






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On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus announced its Top 40 Prospects for 2001. The driving force behind that list is Rany Jazayerli, but the good doctor gets input from everyone on the BP staff.

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