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06-05

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17

Skewed Left: The Economics of the Singleton Extension
by
Zachary Levine

04-24

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 435: The Battle of Bad First-Base Contracts
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

02-06

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7

Skewed Left: The Truth About One-Day Contracts
by
Zachary Levine

01-31

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Opt-Out Hater's Case for Opt-Outs
by
Sam Miller

11-22

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 335: Your Questions, Our Answers
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-17

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5

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 288: The Appeal of Year-to-Year Contracts/Ranking Contenders By Rootability
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-12

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7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 242: The All-No-Bang-for-Your-Buck Team
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-29

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7

Overthinking It: How Will Josh Hamilton Age?
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-27

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 89: The Evan Longoria Extension, the Rays, and Why Players Aren't Holding Out for More Money
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-09

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 80: Could Josh Hamilton Be a Bargain?/Are the Financially Responsible Yankees for Real?
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-05

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11

Bizball: Sizing Up a Seven-Year, $175 Million Deal for Josh Hamilton
by
Maury Brown

10-18

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29

Overthinking It: Baseball's Most Immovable Players
by
Ben Lindbergh

08-08

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49

Future Shock: Considering a Trout Extension
by
Kevin Goldstein

08-07

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 15: Cat Fight
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

04-15

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21

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Scott Boras Factor: Reality or Hype?
by
Vince Gennaro

05-17

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32

Ahead in the Count: The Cost of OPP
by
Matt Swartz

05-10

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22

Ahead in the Count: If They Stay or If They Go
by
Matt Swartz

04-23

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5

Ahead in the Count: Methodology of The New MORP
by
Matt Swartz

11-23

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20

Transaction Action: Fill'er Up!
by
Christina Kahrl

02-25

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4

The Ledger Domain: Salary Arbitration Beats Free Agency
by
Maury Brown

01-21

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Transaction Analysis: Dodging the Arbitrator
by
Christina Kahrl

02-10

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Transaction Analysis: NL West and NL Catchup
by
Christina Kahrl

02-07

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Transaction Analysis: AL West Catchup and Recent AL Moves
by
Christina Kahrl

02-06

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Transaction Analysis: NL Central Catchup
by
Christina Kahrl

02-15

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Transaction Analysis: National League, December 15, 2005-February 11, 2006
by
Christina Kahrl

02-14

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Transaction Analysis: American League, December 15, 2005-February 13, 2006
by
Christina Kahrl

11-23

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Transaction Analysis: November 18-22
by
Christina Kahrl

04-12

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Transaction Analysis: March 29-April 4, 2005
by
Christina Kahrl

03-11

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Transaction Analysis: Offseason - The Centrals
by
Christina Kahrl

02-14

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Transaction Analysis: Offseason - The Easts
by
Christina Kahrl

11-29

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Transaction Analysis: November 17-22, 2004
by
Christina Kahrl

04-06

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Transaction Analysis: March 31-April 5, 2004
by
Christina Kahrl

02-11

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Transaction Analysis: January 12-February 6, 2004
by
Christina Kahrl

04-09

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Transaction Analysis: March 25-April 6, 2003
by
Christina Kahrl

02-05

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Transaction Analysis: Transaction Analysis, The Wests
by
Christina Kahrl

01-25

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Transaction Analysis: The Easts
by
Christina Kahrl

01-22

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Transaction Analysis: January 13-21
by
Christina Kahrl

01-07

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Transaction Analysis: December 2-28
by
Dave Pease and Christina Kahrl

03-31

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Transaction Analysis: March 27-31
by
Christina Kahrl

01-19

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Transaction Analysis: January 5-15
by
Christina Kahrl

01-05

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Transaction Analysis: December 19-January 4
by
Christina Kahrl

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August 8, 2012 8:30 am

Future Shock: Considering a Trout Extension

49

Kevin Goldstein

The Angels will have to decide on a Mike Trout extension at some point. What are their options?

Mike Trout is having a season for the ages. That shouldn't be news to you. But let's forget about the present for a second and think about what could be an even more promising future, as terrifying as that sounds. By common thought in the analytical community, Trout is still six to eight years away from his peak, and if you’re the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, you want that peak. That means an extension for the most valuable young asset in the game. If you are the Angels, how do you even approach this? To find out, I talked to a number of scouts and executives to get their take.

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Ben and Sam talk about the presents, futures, and contracts of two starters having interesting seasons: Cliff Lee and Ben Sheets.

Effectively Wild Episode 15: "Cat Fight"

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Has super-agent Scott Boras earned his reputation for getting the most cash and the longest contracts for his clients?

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Vince Gennaro is the author of Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball and a consultant to MLB teams. He teaches in the Graduate Sports Management programs at Columbia University and Manhattanville College. He is also on the Advisory Board of The Perfect Game Foundation and the Board of Directors of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), whose upcoming annual convention will feature Scott Boras as the keynote speaker. A non-profit organization with 6,700 members, SABR is a perfect fit for anyone who has an interest in baseball research, statistics and history. Vince's website is www.vincegennaro.com

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May 17, 2010 9:00 am

Ahead in the Count: The Cost of OPP

32

Matt Swartz

Clubs who are down with re-signing their own free agents get better value than those who sign other people's players.

After remembering the 1981 hit "Should I Stay or Should I Go" by The Clash with last week’s title on the same topic, we move forward a decade to a 1991 Naughty by Nature hit—and we introduce the money to the equation this time (if you’re down with that).  In this article, I will show that players who re-sign with their clubs on multi-year deals provide far more bang for their buck than players who sign contracts with new teams.

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May 10, 2010 10:05 am

Ahead in the Count: If They Stay or If They Go

22

Matt Swartz

Research again shows that free agents who re-sign perform better than those who sign with another club.

In February, I wrote an article evaluating multi-year dealsgiven out to players with at least six years of service time, and I discovered something interesting. I found that players who re-signed with their current teams aged better than players who signed contracts with new teams, and not by a small margin. This finding gained some extra attention (and extra scrutiny) when I used it to question whether the Phillies might not have erred as terriblyas sabermetricians had suggested when they extended Ryan Howard's contract for five years and $125 million last month.  The primary question that people asked was whether there was any bias in the ages of players who signed multi-year contracts with their current teams versus the ages of players who signed multi-year contracts with new teams.  In fact, there is some difference in the ages of these groups of players.

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April 23, 2010 12:07 pm

Ahead in the Count: Methodology of The New MORP

5

Matt Swartz

Here is how we're now figuring the monetary value of individual players.

This article will follow up on the new version of MORP that I introduced yesterday with a more thorough description of my methodology and my reasoning for it. Firstly, I will restate that the definition of MORP (Market value Over Replacement Player) is the marginal cost of acquiring a player’s contribution on the free-agent market. The basic structure that I am using includes adjusting for draft-pick compensation, which adds to the value of free agents by 10-20 percent. It also looks at all players with six years or more of major-league service time, all years of their free-agent contracts, and makes valuations of their performance based on actual performance rather than the projections, which are biased. I am also adjusting MORP so it is linear with respect to WARP. The discussion of linearity and of the decision to use actual rather than projected performance to evaluate contracts has been detailed in earlier articles, and I won’t reiterate them here in the interest of space. The basic reason why linearity is a fair assumption is that teams frequently have enough vacancies that they can add the number of wins they choose without filling them all. There are exceptions like the 2009 Yankees, who added three front-of-the-rotation starters and an elite first baseman in one offseason. However, even the Yankees do this infrequently enough that it does not regularly impact the market, and without two teams bidding for several superstars every offseason, this is not a large issue. The reason that using projection is so problematic was detailed last week, when I showed how free agents who reach the open market are a biased sample and regularly underperform their projections. For more details of these results, please see my previous work. Here are links to my three part series as well as my article on free agents underperforming their PECOTA projections. I will introduce some of the newer concepts in this article.

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November 23, 2009 6:00 pm

Transaction Action: Fill'er Up!

20

Christina Kahrl

Teams sort out their 40-man rosters as a preliminary for seeing who's on the spot come the Rule 5 draft.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Purchased the contracts of RHPs Brandon Erbe and Luis Lebron, 1B-R Brandon Snyder, 1B-L Rhyne Hughes, 3B-S Josh Bell, and SS-S Pedro Florimon Jr. [11/18]
Claimed C-R Craig Tatum on waivers from the Reds; designated LHP Chris Waters for assignment. [11/20]

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February 25, 2009 2:01 pm

The Ledger Domain: Salary Arbitration Beats Free Agency

4

Maury Brown

Big scores were struck for the players through the arbitration process this winter.

"Honestly? What's to like about it?"
-Anonymous MLB executive, on the subject of salary arbitration


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January 21, 2008 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Dodging the Arbitrator

0

Christina Kahrl

The Rays and Braves make a minor swap, the Rangers shore up their rotation, and everyone else is in the business of being agreeable.

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February 10, 2007 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: NL West and NL Catchup

0

Christina Kahrl

Christina recaps a winter's worth of moves in the NL West, and catches up on the rest of the recent happenings in the senior circuit.

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February 7, 2007 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: AL West Catchup and Recent AL Moves

0

Christina Kahrl

No one in the division had a real strong winter, although the A's helped themselves on the margins.

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February 6, 2007 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: NL Central Catchup

0

Christina Kahrl

With the way the offseason has gone in baseball's six-team division, don't be surprised to see the defending champs looking up in the standings come October for the first time in four years.

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