A brisk run through the possible outcomes of the arbitration case between the players' representatives and the players' employers.
The hearing for Grievance No. 2008-11 (August 15 deadline) begins on Wednesday, and to an outsider, it looks like an open and shut case. The grievance, as filed by the union against MLB, accuses the Commissioner's Office of providing extensions to the signing deadline, thus changing collectively bargained rules without informing the union. In statements about the case, Major League Baseball has already admitted to providing such extensions. So while it looks like an easy win for the union, the more complicated issue concerns the award. As detailed yesterday, the grievance is not filed on behalf of Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, or their advisor, Scott Boras, nor is it filed against the Kansas City Royals or the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's only the MLBPA versus MLB, which complicates any kind of relief, as any determination for relief will have a significant effect on individuals as opposed to their organizations as a whole. Here's a look at many of the potential scenarios being ventured, both in order of explosiveness, and also (unfortunately for those who love
drama) in inverse order of likelihood.
Developments in the battle royale between just about everyone in the baseball industry.
It really was the statement heard 'round the world, as from the time of its release until the end of the day, my phone has been burning in non-stop discussions with teams, agents, players, and other members of the media all looking to talk about the Pedro Alvarez situation. The statement issued by the Pirates is very strong in tone, and tells us quite a bit in only 575 words. We all know that Pittsburgh team president Frank Coonelly has a close relationship with the commissioner's office, and the document almost sounds as if it came straight from New York. Let's take a word by word look at it, and talk about what is actually known, what is merely rumored, and what may eventually happen.
Nate revisits his earlier thoughts on Cristian Guzman being an offseason bargain.
I do try and be accountable when I get an aberrant result like this one, to see if there is anything wrong with the method that produced it. Guzman, certainly, had a worse season than most anyone might have anticipated. His .219/.260/.314 batting line was a dead match for PECOTA's .226/.260/.315 10th percentile projection. The real problem, however, was in the field, where he lost a Kevin Garnett sized step, going from a +14 FRAA player to a -11. Nobody was claiming that Guzman would have a breakout season--on the contrary, PECOTA gave him a 31% collapse rate. But a premium glove at shortstop is worth something, and his deal looked comparatively better than the likes of
There are positives to the Garret Anderson deal after all. The Tigers recall Uggy Urbina in their quest for 70 wins. The Royals lose Angel Berroa to migraines. The Expos re-sign Livan Hernandez to a three-year deal. And the A's finally lose Chad Harville, but pick up Kirk Saarloos to replace him. All this and much more news from around the league in your Tuesday edition of Transaction Analysis.
Dave Nilsson is back in the bigs, this time with the Braves. Damaso Marte and Joe Nathan would get extra bucks from the White Sox and Twins depending on their managers' whims. Geoff Jenkins' three-year deal with the Brewers may become another Milwaukee millstone. These and other happenings in today's Transaction Analysis.
The White Sox will regret hiring Ozzie Guillen. The Astros' Brad Ausmus and Jose Vizcaino: how to flush $4 million down the toilet. The A's and Jays hook up for yet another trade. The Phillies won't solve their bullpen problem with Billy Wagner alone. The Mariners look poised for a fall. These and other news and notes in this edition of Transaction Analysis.