CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Happy Thanksgiving! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 1

Articles Tagged Contender 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

09-06

comment icon

20

On the Beat: Seeing the Forst for the Trees
by
John Perrotto

09-21

comment icon

16

Clubhouse Confidential: An MVP By Any Other Name
by
Marc Carig

08-30

comment icon

30

The BP Broadside: Judge a Player by His Performance, Not the Company He Keeps
by
Steven Goldman

03-14

comment icon

36

Ahead in the Count: Battle for the Beltway
by
Matt Swartz

03-01

comment icon

8

The BP Wayback Machine: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

01-24

comment icon

12

Free Agent Bargain Bin: Outfielders
by
Dan Wade

08-31

comment icon

18

Prospectus Perspective: A Wrigley Rebuild?
by
Christina Kahrl

07-21

comment icon

38

Transaction Action: ALtruisms
by
Christina Kahrl

07-15

comment icon

7

Mid-season Prescriptions: AL Central
by
John Perrotto

07-10

comment icon

73

Transaction Analysis: Surrendering Lee
by
Christina Kahrl and Kevin Goldstein

07-02

comment icon

7

Transaction Action: Dealing and Decapitating
by
Christina Kahrl

06-28

comment icon

9

On the Beat: Monday Update
by
John Perrotto

02-03

comment icon

22

On the Beat: Indian Spring
by
John Perrotto

01-26

comment icon

45

Transaction Action: Sheets, Miggy, and Chooch
by
Christina Kahrl

08-28

comment icon

4

Prospectus Hit and Run: Scheduling Impact in the NL
by
Jay Jaffe

07-27

comment icon

37

Ahead in the Count: Aces and Attendance
by
Matt Swartz

07-16

comment icon

18

On the Beat: Buyers Rush Nearly Empty Shelves?
by
John Perrotto

05-17

comment icon

32

Prospectus Idol Entry: Tim Kniker's Initial Entry
by
Tim Kniker

07-18

comment icon

0

Prospectus Today: Bubble Boys
by
Joe Sheehan

02-19

comment icon

0

Wait 'Til Next Year: Other Programs to Follow
by
Bryan Smith

11-21

comment icon

0

When Four Aces Don't Matter
by
Brandon Isleib

09-11

comment icon

0

Prospectus Hit and Run: Taking on Water
by
Jay Jaffe

08-19

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: National League Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

08-09

comment icon

0

Rebuilding on the River
by
John Perrotto

08-08

comment icon

0

A Little Less Glamour
by
John Perrotto

06-16

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: June 13-15, 2006
by
Christina Kahrl

02-14

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: American League, December 15, 2005-February 13, 2006
by
Christina Kahrl

07-21

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: July 14-19, 2005
by
Christina Kahrl

04-27

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: April 19-25, 2004
by
Christina Kahrl

04-06

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: March 31-April 5, 2004
by
Christina Kahrl

03-26

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: March 22-25, 2004
by
Christina Kahrl

09-17

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

03-30

comment icon

0

National League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-01

comment icon

0

The Daily Prospectus: The Daily Prospectus: Angelic
by
Joe Sheehan

02-18

comment icon

0

Rotisserie Turns: Spring Training Decisions, Part 1
by
Keith Law

<< Previous Tag Entries Next Tag Entries >>

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

February 3, 2010 11:52 am

On the Beat: Indian Spring

22

John Perrotto

Manny Acta looks to get the Indians off to a better start, Ruben Amaro Jr. explains why he couldn't keep two aces, and other news and notes.

When Manny Acta holds his first team meeting as manager of the Indians later this month at the beginning of spring training in Goodyear, Arizona, he will be armed with some numbers. Anyone who knows Acta isn't surprised by that. He is a firm believer in the value of statistical analysis and has based part of his approach to managing from things he read in Mind Game, a book published by Baseball Prospectus, that explained how the Red Sox used brainpower to build their World Series-winning team in 2004.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 26, 2010 5:28 pm

Transaction Action: Sheets, Miggy, and Chooch

45

Christina Kahrl

Oakland wins the right to rent Ben Sheets, Ruiz re-ups in Philly, and Baltimore is once again getting Miggy with it.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Signed INF-R Miguel Tejada to a one-year, $6 million contract. [1/25]

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

August 28, 2009 12:08 pm

Prospectus Hit and Run: Scheduling Impact in the NL

4

Jay Jaffe

Turning to the impact of the respective slates of the contenders and the spoilers in the senior circuit.

It's time to fish or cut bait for the Giants. One week ago tonight, they kicked off a four-game series in Colorado with a win, which closed the gap between the National League's top two wild-card contenders to a single game. The Rockies stormed back to take the final three games of the series, culminating in a 14th-inning comeback which featured a pitcher walking with the bases loaded, thereby setting up Ryan Spilborghs' walk-off grand slam. The Giants now trail the Rox by three games in the race for the Wild Card, and if that's not bad enough, they have by far the toughest remaining schedule of any NL contender.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

July 27, 2009 12:44 pm

Ahead in the Count: Aces and Attendance

37

Matt Swartz

Does a franchise pitcher like Roy Halladay have an outsized impact on Blue Jays attendance, and would dealing him do likewise?

In last week's article, I estimated a dollar value of adding Roy Halladay for each of the contending teams mentioned in trade rumors related to Doc as of last week. Using an approximation of the effect on playoff odds and subsequent success in the playoffs, I found that Roy Halladay's contract was worth nearly $15 million more to a contender than he is to the Blue Jays. However, there are many other factors that play a role in revenue that vary by team, and one factor is that Blue Jays fans love Roy Halladay. Many of those fans cannot stand the thought of losing him, and the Jays certainly may wonder if subtracting him would hurt their attendance enough to deem it unwise. The concept of a franchise player having a high sentimental value to a city is one worth exploring, so let's discuss the effect of Roy Halladay on the Blue Jays' attendance.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

July 16, 2009 12:39 pm

On the Beat: Buyers Rush Nearly Empty Shelves?

18

John Perrotto

With sellers heavily outnumbered, how can everyone get what they want at the deadline?

The grumbling among most general managers is that it is too hard to make a trade in the current climate. Just 15 days remain until the July 31 deadline for making trades without securing waivers on players. However, 18 of the 30 major league clubs are still within five games of a playoff spot as the teams begin returning to action from the All-Star break tonight. Just nine teams can be considered definite sellers with the deadline approaching, leaving 21 clubs either looking to buy or at least stand pat. Thus, it is truly a sellers' market.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Bio: You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand the nuances of baseball…. But it helps!

Read the full article...

The eight premium players who might get dealt, and what it would take to get them.

CC Sabathia, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton have already been dealt in a flurry of early activity, leaving many contenders playing from behind in the race to improve their team by the trade deadline. With three of the top arms off of the market, the list of trade targets is hitter-heavy. For pitching, there's really only Erik Bedard; everyone else you can think of is either on a good team or not an impact pitcher. Then again, the A's are 51-44 and have dealt away 40 percent of their rotation in the last 10 days, so maybe they'll move a third. Read on.

Read the full article...

A selection of surprise teams, good programs, and underrated college squads you should keep in mind following this year's season.

Many of us have already began rejoicing that baseball is back, in as much as pitchers and catchers reporting represents the return of baseball. But this Friday baseball will be back in another sense, as the college baseball season's uniform start date will see almost an entire nation's worth of universities hit the field for the first time. Since the New Year, we have gone over the nuances of the college game, the changes it will undergo, the players likely to be the most dominant, and we have gone through the teams themselves. After looking at the 2007 Omaha teams and then reviewing last year's next-best teams last week, I wanted my last pre-season college piece to review 16 more teams that could make some noise in 2008. It's a mix of good programs and underrated programs.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

November 21, 2007 12:00 am

When Four Aces Don't Matter

0

Brandon Isleib

How did a historically brilliant starting staff get no further than fourth place?

Since 1901, the major leagues have sported 2166 single team seasons, 2182 if you count the Federal League. In that time, the top 15 or so pitchers each season are generally thought of as aces, with adjusted ERA (ERA+, or ERA normalized for parks and leagues, with 100 being average) serving as the easy guide to an ace. After adding a few thresholds--22 GS/130 IP (to weed out some super-relievers from the '70s and a few rookie sensations called up in July), no fewer than nine wins, and a WHIP under 1.4 to help weed out flukes and pitchers who don't go deep enough into ballgames to get regular decisions--I got down to 1478 of these ace-level seasons, which seemed about right. It's not a perfect way of identifying aces, but since an ace is as much about perception as it is the performance, ERA+ with some qualifiers serves as a decent enough proxy. There are worse methods.

By this standard, some teams have multiple aces in a year. Forty-nine clubs had three aces (or ace-level performers, if you prefer), and five others had at least four. Here are those five, with their ERA+ listed next to their names:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

September 11, 2007 12:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Taking on Water

0

Jay Jaffe

A contender in the Pacific Northwest no longer looks like one, and Jay runs down a few reasons why.

After a surprising bid not only to win the Wild Card but to challenge for the AL West lead, the Mariners sank from postseason contention in rather dramatic fashion. As August 25 dawned, they were 73-53, just one game behind the Angels in the AL West and three games up on the Yankees in the Wild Card race. Their Playoff Odds stood at 28.8 percent for the division, 29.9 percent for the Wild Card, and a season-high 58.7 percent overall. Two and a half weeks later, after a 1-13 plunge, they're down 8.5 games in the AL West, are given just a 0.3 percent shot at winning their division, and 5.5 back in the Wild Card, with just a 1.2 percent chance. In terms of raw wins and losses, they've set a dubious record--no team that far above .500 that late in the season has ever collapsed so quickly.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

August 19, 2007 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: National League Roundup

0

Christina Kahrl

All the moves from around the Senior Circuit, with some interesting things going on with contenders and spoilers alike.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

August 9, 2007 12:00 am

Rebuilding on the River

0

John Perrotto

The Nationals are holding their own despite dire preseason predictions.

The Washington Nationals aren't exactly having a season to remember, but it's getting better. Ryan Church figures it could be worse. A whole lot worse, really. "You have to remember that some people were predicting in spring training that we were going to lose 130 games this season," observed the Nationals left fielder. "I knew we weren't going to be that bad. No major-league team can be that bad."

No, the Nationals aren't that bad--they're 52-63 and tied for fourth place in the National League East with Florida. That the Nationals would have one of the worst records in the major leagues just two years after relocating to the nation's capital from Montreal is not really a surprise. Nationals ownership made it clear long before this season ever started that 2007, the franchise's last season at decrepit RFK Stadium before moving into a new ballpark along the Anacostia River next April, was going to be one of retrenchment. The Nationals cut the payroll from $63 million to $37 million, and made only a token bid to retain star left fielder Alfonso Soriano before watching him sign an eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs as a free agent.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Tag Entries Next Tag Entries >>