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Articles Tagged Cincinnati Reds 

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06-20

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3

The Call-Up: Cody Reed
by
Kourage Kundahl and George Bissell

06-19

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0

BP Bronx
by
Nick Ashbourne

06-17

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5

Life at the Margins: Lightning Strikes Adam Duvall Twice
by
Rian Watt

05-25

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2

Prospectus Feature: The RISP Mystery
by
Rob Mains

05-25

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6

Team Chemistry: Diagnosing the Swing Swings
by
John Choiniere

05-24

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11

Cold Takes: Make OBP Honest
by
Patrick Dubuque

05-16

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12

Prospectus Feature: A Short History of Reds and Pirates Hitting One Another With Baseballs
by
Rob Mains

04-21

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0

What You Need to Know: Raisel Iglesias' Deus Ex Machina
by
Demetrius Bell

03-21

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4

Winter Is Leaving
by
R.J. Anderson

03-04

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12

Fifth Column: Killing God and Willard Hershberger
by
Michael Baumann

02-18

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3

Painting the Black: PECOTA and Seeing Red(s)
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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Painting the Black: The Cincinnati Reds Are the Anti-Royals
by
R.J. Anderson

01-05

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6

Rumor Roundup: The Slow Burn Of Ian Desmond's Free Agency
by
Daniel Rathman

12-29

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18

Players Prefer Presentation: On Aroldis Chapman, Opportunity and Cost
by
Meg Rowley

12-29

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12

Transaction Analysis: What's Chapmaning
by
R.J. Anderson, Christopher Crawford and George Bissell

12-15

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2

Rumor Roundup: Rumors About Melancon Aboil
by
Daniel Rathman

04-22

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26

Rubbing Mud: Bryan Price's Other Sins
by
Matthew Trueblood

04-20

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3

Transaction Analysis: Rays Grant Balfour Farewell
by
R.J. Anderson

04-01

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2

Every Team's Moneyball: Cincinnati Reds: Go Your Own Way, Young Man
by
Brendan Gawlowski

03-20

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16

Rubbing Mud: The Reds Chose the Wrong Time to Move Cingrani
by
Matthew Trueblood

03-17

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4

Rumor Roundup: Tony Cingrani Won't Start, to Start
by
Chris Mosch

02-09

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0

Transaction Analysis: Texas' New Platoon
by
R.J. Anderson

02-09

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0

Rumor Roundup: Dayan Viciedo's Home Runs Are the Least Wanted Home Runs
by
Daniel Rathman

02-04

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8

Daisy Cutter: Welcome Back, Votto
by
Sahadev Sharma

01-28

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2

Transaction Analysis: Reds' Mes Around
by
R.J. Anderson

01-05

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6

Transaction Analysis: The Byrd Has Landed
by
R.J. Anderson and Ben Carsley

12-12

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10

Transaction Analysis: The Pitchers the Reds Shed
by
R.J. Anderson, Zachary Levine and Jordan Gorosh

12-09

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5

Fantasy Team Preview: Cincinnati Reds
by
Bret Sayre

11-21

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26

2015 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

09-19

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1

Pebble Hunting: Cueto's Quirks
by
Sam Miller

09-12

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2

Transaction Analysis: The September Shuffle
by
R.J. Anderson

09-03

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3

The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, September 3
by
Matthew Kory

08-18

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3

Transaction Analysis: Closer Reclamation Season
by
R.J. Anderson

05-05

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14

Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 5, 2014
by
Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff

03-25

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18

Prospectus Preview: NL Central 2014 Preseason Preview
by
Ken Funck and Harry Pavlidis

03-10

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12

Notes from the Field: Spring Notes
by
Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff

03-10

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 402: 2014 Season Preview Series: Cincinnati Reds
by
Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

02-18

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11

Transaction Analysis: What We Would Say About a Homer Bailey Extension
by
Sam Miller

02-03

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35

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects
by
Jason Parks

01-21

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0

Rumor Roundup: Bringing Back Bailey
by
Daniel Rathman

12-04

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7

Transaction Analysis: The Rays Add Bell and Hanigan, Double Down on Catcher Defense
by
R.J. Anderson and Ben Lindbergh

12-02

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2

Transaction Analysis: Nolasco Heads North
by
R.J. Anderson and Rob McQuown

11-22

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6

Raising Aces: Bush League: Robert Stephenson
by
Doug Thorburn

11-11

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28

One Move: National League Central
by
Craig Goldstein

10-23

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1

Transaction Analysis: Le Freak, C'est Chic
by
R.J. Anderson

10-22

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8

Fantasy Freestyle: Brandon Phillips' Gradually Sudden Decline
by
Craig Goldstein

10-07

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5

Overthinking It: Dusty Baker and the Modern Manager's Survival Manual
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-02

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9

Playoff Prospectus: NL Wild Card Game Recap: Pirates 6, Reds 2
by
Colin Wyers

10-01

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 297: NL Wild Card Game Preview/Adam J. Morris on the Rangers
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-01

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13

Playoff Prospectus: NL Wild Card Game Preview
by
Ben Lindbergh

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The last piece of the Cueto deal to make the bigs might end up being the real prize.

The Situation: When Alfredo Simon pitching every five days is Plan A, virtually any other pitcher is an upgrade. Simon lost his rotation spot, Daniel Wright stepped in and now the Reds will summon Reed to pitch Saturday after the latter was optioned to Triple-A Louisville. Reed had to play the waiting game to avoid reaching Super Two status and should be in Cincinnati for the long haul now that the deadline has passed.

Background: Drafted out of Northwest Mississippi Community College with the Royals’ second-round pick in 2013, Reed stalled in his first two pro seasons as he fought his command. But after finding a more repeatable delivery, he was able to reverse his control issues and pound the strike zone. The Reds flipped Johnny Cueto for Reed, Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb at the trade deadline last summer; coincidentally, all three will start for Cincinnati against Houston this weekend. Reed put up gaudy numbers in the Southern League, capping a breakout season with a career-best 10.87 K/9 in eight starts for Double-A Pensacola. He kept a similarly impressive pace in five spring training games, joining the Louisville rotation after the Reds’ last round of cuts and averaging just under a strikeout per inning.

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June 19, 2016 6:00 am

BP Bronx

0

Nick Ashbourne

The unhittable one has cut his walk rate in half this year. Can baseball handle a leap forward from a reliever this dominant?

Paste post text here

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Last chance to find out about Adam Duvall.

The list of position-player WARP leaders for 2016 reads rather as you’d expect it to, at least to begin with. Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, Kris Bryant, Buster Posey and Nolan Arenado are all in the top 10. The four men who join them there—Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve, Xander Bogaerts, and Ben Zobrist—aren’t precisely guys about whom you’d say, going into the season, that they were stone cold locks to be top 10 players, but on the other hand it’s also not exactly stunning that they’re there. Four players from their category of players had to be in the top 10, and they happened to be those particular guys. Hitters 11-14 are unsurprising, too. And then you get to 15. And there you find this name:

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When runners are in scoring position, home runs go down, while everything else--including doubles and triples--goes up. Why?

In this article, I looked for evidence that some hitters perform better with runners in scoring position (RISP) than in other situations. (I didn’t find much.) To help me define perform, I calculated run expectancies with RISP and discovered that of common batting metrics (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS), slugging percentage correlates best to driving in runs. So I looked for hitters who slugged higher with RISP than in other plate appearances.

A couple commenters suggested that this is a low bar. After all, they reasoned, hitters should have a higher slugging percentage with RISP than without, for a number of reasons:

· Pitchers have to pitch from the stretch (though the perception that pitchers give up velocity by pitching from the stretch doesn’t appear to be true)

· Infielders must position themselves to hold runners on, opening up lanes for basehits that wouldn’t exist with the bases empty

· Similarly, with fewer than two outs and a runner on third, infielders may move up to prevent a run, creating additional opportunities for singles

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Batters increase the "swing zone" as the season goes on. To try to understand why, we need to know how.

In my article here two weeks ago, I introduced the idea of a “swing zone,” complementary to the strike zone, for helping to identify batters’ plate discipline habits in the PITCHf/x era as the strike zone has changed. In doing so, I showed annual trends, the effect of batter handedness, and the effect of the count. I also showed that the swing zone increases by about 40 square inches over the course of the season, despite no corresponding change in strike zone size. I included it almost as an aside at the end of the piece, as a reason to discount the dramatic drop in zone size for 2016. It turns out, though, that I may have buried the lede a bit—that last bit, about the average swing zone increasing from about 725 square inches in April to about 760 in October (all playoff data included, November being lumped in with October) generated by far the most reader questions. Now, I don’t want to get pigeon-holed as just “the guy who writes about this swing zone thing he made up,” so next time out I’ll be branching out to something else, but for now I do think a follow-up is more than warranted.

To remind everyone, in the original research I found that hitters were indeed responding to the increasing size of the strike zone by being willing to swing at pitches in a broader area. The trend was visible when looking across all the data, but got overwhelmed by the effect of the number of strikes in the count. I further found that, much like the expansion of the strike zone, the effect was largely constrained to the area below 19” (i.e., the average bottom of the current rulebook strike zone).

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There is no ideal way to reach first base. It's time, if it ever wasn't, to strip judgment from our stats.

I have a friend who I like to hand things to. Every so often, I’ll hold out a blank sheet of paper, or a random object I picked up off a table, and she will inevitably take it from me, study it, then frown as she tries to figure out why she’s holding it. It works nearly every time. It’s not that she’s a particularly gullible person (although maybe she is, as well); it’s that she works on a contextual level. Patrick is handing me this, her brain decides, and therefore it must be important. She doesn’t actually think this, because then her brain would also remind her that I’m kind of a jerk. By the time that thought kicks in, it’s too late.

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Is Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati turning into a turf war, on a global scale? We'd rather hear both sides of the tale.

Wednesday night, while Max Scherzer was striking out 20 Tigers, the Reds and Pirates were striking each other. There were six hit batters in the game, four Pirates and two Reds. Reds’ reliever Ross Ohlendorf was ejected after the last of them, when he hit David Freese with a runner on second after the Pirates had taken a 5-4 lead.

This is not something new for these teams. Since the start of the 2012 season, there have been 94 players hit in 56 games between the Reds and Pirates. (Across the majors, there are, on average, .66 batters hit per game—.33 per side.) The six hit batters Wednesday represents an apex, but the teams combined for five hit batters on June 2, 2013, four on April 8 this year, and three on seven other occasions. In fairness, some of this is probably personnel-related. When you employ batters for whom getting hit by pitches is part of their on-base toolkit, like Shin-Soo Choo (hit seven times in Reds-Pirates games in 2013 alone) and Starling Marte (hit 14 times in Reds-Pirates games dating back to August 2012), it’s reasonable to expect things to get plunky. And Pirates games, in particular, feature a lot of HBPs in the box score. Since the start of the 2012 season, Pirates batters have been hit 328 times, the most in the majors and 15 percent more than the second-place Cardinals. Pirates pitchers have hit 293 batters, also the most in the majors, and 9 percent more than the second place White Sox. (The Reds are third at hitting batters and 14th at getting hit.) But six in one game is an awful lot, as is 94 since the start of the 2012.

This has led to discussion of what might be done about this sort of thing. A hard ball, thrown at high speeds, can cause damage to the human body. Per Brooks Baseball, the pitches that hit the six batters on Wednesday night were thrown at 91.7 (Alfredo Simon in the fourth), 94.8 (Juan Nicasio in the fourth), 80.9 (Simon in the sixth), 86.4 (Steve Delabar in the seventh), 92.5 (Jared Hughes in the seventh), and 95.0 (Ohlendorf in the ninth) miles per hour. Nobody appeared to get hurt in the game, but of course, batters aren’t always that lucky. So what can be done?

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The weirdest thing happened to the Reds' ace. Meanwhile, good job Chris Sale, good job Orioles, good job Jordan Zimmermann, great job Aaron Hicks.

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March 21, 2016 6:00 am

Winter Is Leaving

4

R.J. Anderson

No, really: The Reds have a young rotation.

Joey Votto is going to walk a lot.

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Man and the myth.

Willard Hershberger was a backup catcher for the Cincinnati Reds from 1938 to 1940. He played 160 games, mostly as a defensive caddy for Ernie Lombardi, but he also hit well—.312/.351/.381 for his brief career. Hershberger is a historical footnote; from an on-field perspective he’s no more notable than, say, Mitch Meluskey, and nobody expects casual baseball fans 75 years from now to remember Mitch Meluskey.

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The Royals may be the most famous prediction PECOTA has gotten wrong recently, but the Reds have seen the opposite issue.

On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus released PECOTA's preseason projections. In keeping with tradition, the algorithm has again seemingly undersold the champion Royals, who have nudged aside the White Sox to become the symbol for outpacing expectations. That status is well-earned: over the past three seasons, the Royals have won a majors-leading 44 games more than PECOTA figured they would. Along the way, the Royals have birthed countless thinkpieces and arguments about every facet of their success: whether it's by design; whether it's sustainable; whether it's duplicable; and so on.

At the soul of it is the truth that everyone wants to be the Royals (the postseason version, at least). The transitive property, then, suggests that nobody wants to be the anti-Royals, a role filled in recent years by the Reds. No team has underperformed its PECOTA projections over the last three seasons by more games than the Reds: they won two fewer games than expected in 2013, seven fewer in 2014, and 15 fewer in 2015. Add those failures together, and the Reds have lost 24 games more than PECOTA believed they would—or six more than any other team over the same stretch:

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How the Reds have underperformed their projections more than any other team.

On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus released PECOTA's preseason projections. In keeping with tradition, the algorithm has again seemingly undersold the champion Royals, who have nudged aside the White Sox to become the symbol for outpacing expectations. That status is well earned: Over the past three seasons, the Royals have won a majors-leading 44 games more than PECOTA figured they would. Along the way, the Royals have birthed countless thinkpieces and arguments about every facet of their success: whether it's by design; whether it's sustainable; whether it's duplicable; and so on.

Read the full article...

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