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3 Circle Change: Swing Away, My Large Adult Son by Zach Crizer
6 Flu-Like Symptoms: Jon Lester, Elite Running Game Suppressor by Rob Mains
3 Let It Eat: The June 2017 Panic Index by Ben Carsley
0 Rubbing Mud: Jake Arrieta's Broken Breaking Balls by Matthew Trueblood
2 Transaction Analysis: Have Gloves, Will Travel by Bryan Grosnick
0 DFA Podcast: Ep. 6: One Up, One Down by Bryan Grosnick, R.J. Anderson and Shawn Brody
1 Rubbing Mud: The Cubs' Pitching and Its Skeptics by Matthew Trueblood
3 Flu-Like Symptoms: Extreme Makeover: National League Edition by Rob Mains
2 Guarding The Lines: When It's Different But Still Great by Jarrett Seidler
4 Short Relief: Tales of Cubs Fans, Extroverts, and 1987 Topps by Nathan Bishop, Jason Wojciechowski and Patrick Dubuque
3 Looking Back on Tomorrow: Chicago Cubs by Jared Wyllys
0 Banjo Hitter: The Lost Outfielders by Aaron Gleeman
1 Transaction Analysis: Major Minors by Jared Wyllys and Aaron Gleeman
6 Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Pitchers by Aaron Gleeman
3 Transaction Analysis: Old Second Basemen Never Die by Bryan Grosnick and Jeffrey Paternostro
3 Transaction Analysis: Bargain Bin Bullpens by Bryan Grosnick, Eric Roseberry and Jared Wyllys
24 Players Prefer Presentation: Here We Are Again by Meg Rowley
0 Rubbing Mud: Command, Framing, and Teamwork by Matthew Trueblood
2 Transaction Analysis: Windy City Depth by Jared Wyllys
5 Prospectus Feature: Unlocking Kyle Hendricks by Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge and Harry Pavlidis
6 Two-Strike Approach: Soler Power by Cat Garcia
4 Rubbing Mud: The Final Sunshine Season for Wrigley Field's Bullpens by Matthew Trueblood
10 Transaction Analysis: Daddy Long Legs Hops From Chicago to St. Louis by Matthew Trueblood
3 Transaction Analysis: Chicago's New 1-2 Punch by Jared Wyllys
2 Transaction Analysis: Lefty, Lefty, Lefty by Matthew Trueblood
10 Prospectus Feature: The Cy Young and the Unfair Advantage of Defense by Jonathan Judge
6 Rubbing Mud: Steve Goodman and the History of 'Go Cubs Go' by Matthew Trueblood
15 Release Points: How Francona Outmaneuvered Maddon and the Cubs ... Almost by Dan Rozenson
15 Playoff Prospectus: Assessing the Managers' Moves in Game 7 by Matthew Trueblood
6 Playoff Prospectus: The Highlight Reel: World Series Game 7 by Ashley Varela
14 Playoff Prospectus: After 108 Years, Cubs Win the Marathon and the Sprint by Aaron Gleeman
1 Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 7 Preview by Bryan Grosnick
0 Playoff Prospectus: Who Wore It Best? by Trevor Strunk
8 Playoff Prospectus: Assessing the Managers' Moves in Game 6 by Jarrett Seidler
0 Playoff Prospectus: The Highlight Reel: World Series Game 6 by Mauricio Rubio
1 Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 6 Preview by Aaron Gleeman
0 Playoff Prospectus: The Highlight Reel: World Series Game 5 by Demetrius Bell
5 Playoff Prospectus: Assessing the Managers' Moves in Game 5 by Matthew Trueblood
5 Playoff Prospectus: Spider-Man Heyward by Meg Rowley
0 Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 5 Preview by Aaron Gleeman
0 Playoff Prospectus: The Highlight Reel: World Series Game 4 by Ashley Varela
0 Playoff Prospectus: Of Errors, Common and Uncommon by Rian Watt
1 Playoff Prospectus: Wrigley Goes Silent as Indians See the Finish Line by Aaron Gleeman
0 Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 4 Preview by Scooter Hotz
0 Playoff Prospectus: Assessing the Managers' Moves in Game 3 by Rian Watt
0 Playoff Prospectus: Who Says You Can't Go Home? by Jarrett Seidler
0 Playoff Prospectus: The Highlight Reel: World Series Game 3 by Mauricio Rubio
3 Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 3 Preview by Aaron Gleeman
2 Playoff Prospectus: Cleveland Clunker by Meg Rowley
0 Playoff Prospectus: The Kluber Clinic by Trevor Strunk
Pedro Strop signs an extension with the Cubs and minor-league deals galore for Mat Latos, Gordon Beckham, and Yusmeiro Petit.
February 24, 2017 6:00 am
Which young pitchers does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?
“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in
’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records. PECOTA
PECOTA assigns each player a “breakout rate” for the upcoming season based on their odds of beating their established level of recent performance by at least 20 percent, with historical player comps serving as an important factor. Because the entire system is based on regressed-to-the-mean, 50th percentile projections, breakout rate identifies the players most likely to leave that in the dust for their 70th, 80th, and 90th percentile upsides.
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February 13, 2017 6:00 am
Brandon Phillips finally accepts a trade, Chase Utley returns to the Dodgers on the cheap, and the Cubs and Royals make a minor swap.
Greg Holland chooses Colorado for his comeback, Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas stay in New York, Scott Feldman looks to eat innings in Cincinnati, and Boone Logan needs context. Hal Steinbrenner asked a question without really wanting to know the answer.
I made a mistake: I thought about this from the player’s perspective. I thought about the player. Or perhaps, I thought about it as mostly mattering with respect to individual players, as mostly serving to modify their behavior. On Thursday,
Hal Steinbrenner reminded me of my error.
Read the full article... Jon Lester should be just fine without David Ross and the rest of baseball can learn something from the Cubs' catching plan.
For the past three or four years, one of the things we have known about baseball—just
known, without question or reservation—is that was a vital part of David Ross ’s success. Recall that Ross (who, we all knew, was an elite pitch framer) stepped in as the Red Sox’s primary catcher when Jon Lester (in addition to being a terrible defender) got exposed by good pitching during Boston’s 2013 World Series run, and then became Lester’s personal catcher beginning in the spring of 2014. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Lester had a 2.02
and held opponents to a .581 ERA when working with Ross that season, before being traded away from his new partner at the trade deadline. He still pitched well for the A’s, who paired him up with OPS , but his opponents' OPS rose by about 50 points, and then the 2014 Wild Card Game happened. Derek Norris Read the full article...
After missing out on Tyson Ross, the Cubs add another oft-injured starter. Kyle Hendricks might be a lot closer to Greg Maddux than he thinks.
One of the challenges of bringing
BP's new pitching data to light is figuring out whether it’s useful and how we can leverage it to better understand what is happening on the field. As mentioned previously, we look at this in much the same way we look at pitch movement or velocity; we need to figure out how these tunnels data points interact with other components of a player’s performance to unlock a deeper understanding of what is happening.
is a perfect subject to start with. As we mentioned in Kyle Hendricks "Two Ways to Tunnel," Hendricks has some of the smallest pitch tunnels in all of baseball. Hendricks is often compared to (including by us!), and we can see how he is in fact like Maddux in certain respects. It gives us an idea of how he’s successful, but only an abstract one. That is, we rationalize Hendricks’ success because we’ve seen Maddux do it before, but we don’t really know how all of the moving pieces come together. Greg Maddux
In order to better understand how Hendricks is successful, we’ll have to dig into some of our new data to see what that can tell us about how he pitches.
Hendricks has steadily learned how to strike out opposing batters, increasing his K% by 55 percent from 2014 to 2015 and 2016, and it’s clear the effect that has had on his game. In fact, Hendricks’ new-found ability to strike batters out has resulted in him becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball as he has posted a sub-3.50
over each of the past two seasons despite getting dinged for pitching (and winning an DRA title) ERA in front of an elite defense. Read the full article...
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January 6, 2017 6:00 am
Kansas City needs power and Jorge Soler needs playing time, so it's a perfect match.
The truth about
’s future with the Cubs was written on the proverbial wall in 2016. Chicago was so rich in talent and such a strong winning machine that Soler struggled to stand out, but a 24-year-old hitting .238/.333/.436 shouldn't be collecting dust on the bench. Jorge Soler
Soler would have been a perfectly adequate starter on most other teams and his offseason trade to the Royals in exchange for star reliever
makes sense for both sides. The Royals essentially gave up one year of a great closer in exchange for a long-term offensive talent with the potential to be their most prolific power hitter. Even if Soler fails to reach the top of his high ceiling, he should be an asset in Kansas City right away. Wade Davis The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe. Wrigley Field's ongoing overhaul means no more on-field bullpens and the stories that came with them.
The Cubs’ on-field rebuild is complete, and they could be in for an almost unprecedented period of roster stability (within the modern era of player development and movement). For the next five years it’s a pretty good bet that when you go to Wrigley Field you’ll find
behind the plate, Willson Contreras , Kris Bryant , Addison Russell , and Javier Baez around the infield, and Anthony Rizzo , Kyle Schwarber , and Albert Almora spanning the outfield. Jason Heyward
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December 10, 2016 6:00 am
Dexter Fowler stays in the NL Central, signing a five-year, $82.5 million deal with the Cardinals.
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December 9, 2016 6:00 am
Chicago adds Wade Davis and Koji Uehara to a rebuilt bullpen, while Kansas City makes a big bet on Jorge Soler's power.
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