BP's dirty dozen makes their prognostications to generate the wisdom of at least one small crowd.
Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.
For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
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The NLCS features two evenly-matched clubs, but how the managers line up their rotations could make all the difference.
The Phillies claimed their second NL East title in as many years by embarking on a 13-3 tear to end the season, once again storming past a shell-shocked Mets club. They made short work of the Brewers in the Division Series, and come into the Championship Series with arguably the most potent lineup of any of the four remaining teams along with the top starting pitcher in Cole Hamels.
As in the AL, the Central division is as tight as can be, while in the East two Mets are predicted to take home some hardware along with their division flag.
Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the National League, along with the staff picks in some fun miscellaneous categories.
Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.
Two fantasy experts go back and forth on the value of young pitchers.
So I'm looking at my disastrous AL LABR pitching staff (King Felix, Shawn Chacon, Daniel Cabrera, Chad Orvella, Mike MacDougal--I'm leaving out Joel Zumaya and Curt Schilling because they can't by themselves undo the damage), and I'm thinking: "Why didn't I go with the all rookie plan?" Six or seven bucks on Francisco Liriano, a few more on Justin Verlander, stick with Zumaya for a buck, maybe throw three or four at Jon Papelbon, a buck on Jered Weaver, and I'd be all set. I could even have rounded out the staff with Jon Lester and Jeremy Sowers on reserve. When in recent memory have so many rookie pitchers in the AL, facing the DH every time through the order, had such fantastic seasons? Probably never. And for that reason, the idea of drafting all rookie pitchers never occurred to me. But should it have? Was there something special about Verlander's or Liriano's minor-league numbers that should have told me these guys would be instant successes?
Optioned RHP Matt Wise to Edmonton; optioned RHPs Elvin Nina
and Scot Shields and C Jason Dewey to Erie (Double-A);
optioned OF Elpidio Guzman to Lake Elsinore (A); assigned RHP
Steve Green and C Shawn Wooten to their minor-league camp.