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Which young pitchers does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?

“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in PECOTA’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records.

PECOTA assigns each player a “breakout rate” for the upcoming season based on their odds of beating their established level of recent performance by at least 20 percent, with historical player comps serving as an important factor. Because the entire system is based on regressed-to-the-mean, 50th percentile projections, breakout rate identifies the players most likely to leave that in the dust for their 70th, 80th, and 90th percentile upsides.

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No wait we need some control.

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The only thing better than doing something once is doing something twice.

After last week’s events, two new classes of U.S. amateur players have entered professional baseball since the class of 2014, which has seen some fast-moving performers. This means it’s a good time to take the pulse of that class again and peek at just how differently it might have turned out if we were drafting with the information that we know now. You may remember that we did this last year as well, so we’ve included those selections as well—if you want to get the full picture, this is the reason hyperlinks were created.

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The Red Sox coax five double-play balls and still find a way to lose, Carlos Rodon comes unglued, Jake Lamb saves the D'backs' bacon, and more.

The Monday Takeaway

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Some 2016 predictions that may surprise you. And some that probably won't.

As the countdown to Opening Day trickles ever-so-close to the holiday to top all holidays, the Baseballholic in me is compelled to predict what will happen in the 2016 baseball season. Most of the predictions will turn out to be wrong, which is a tribute to the volatility inherent in a sport that we spend way too much time trying to predict (not that it will stop me from trying). We release our BP staff predictions for the season on Monday, and those who want a sneak peak can tune into the latest Baseballholics podcast to see who I have tabbed for this year's awards and division winners.

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Additions to the major league roster have left the system thin beyond a top few prospects.

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April 23, 2015 6:00 am

The Stash List: Third Edition, 2015


Bret Sayre

With Kris Bryant graduating, the new no. 1 resides across town.

If you’re here for the introduction, you’ve come to the wrong place. If you’re here for the Stash List, welcome friend, have a seat.

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Continually updated video library of 2014 First-Year Player Draft prospects.

Welcome to the 2014 MLB Draft Video Library -- this space will feature periodic uploads of videos of 2014 MLB draft prospects from now through June. It will be updated every single day and the new videos for a particular week will be featured at the top of this page with the archived videos directly below. Chances are if you are looking for a draft prospect you will find some video of him on this page between now and June.

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One last stab at projecting the top 41 picks in today's MLB draft.

Contributing: Allan Simpson, David Rawnsley, Todd Gold, Kendall Rogers, Nick Faleris, Jason Parks, Ronit Shah

2014 Draft content | Mock Draft v. 1 | Mock Draft v. 2 | PG Draft LIVE! pick tracker and chat

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February 18, 2014 6:00 am

Draft Ten Pack: Feb. 18, 2014


Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

USA Baseball arms (including Carlos Rodon) and Florida High School updates.

Last Friday marked the beginning of the baseball season for the vast majority of collegiate programs (junior colleges have been in action since Feb. 1st), and it was an eventful opening weekend for a number of high-interest USA Collegiate National Team alums. The draft’s presumptive leader for 1-1 honors, Carlos Rodon, (LHP, NC State), had a less-than-stellar opener, while a quartet of his Team USA rotation-mates found varying levels of success in their respective starts. Down in the Sunshine State, high school ball is underway and we have notes on five arms and their early season starts.

Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State
Scouting Video
It was a disappointing start all around for NC State ace Rodon. After weather-related issues bumped State’s opener from Friday in Southern California to Sunday in Raleigh, the lefty took the mound without his usual overpowering arsenal. Rodon sat as low as 89-90 mph and generally 90-92, several ticks shy of his usual comfort zone, while struggling to command the pitch to his typical ability. His power breaker, normally the go-to pitch in his repertoire, was unresponsive, and with his fastball velocity down Canisius was able to succeed with a choke-and-poke approach, taking advantage of Rodon’s bouts of wildness and a flat NC State defense. The final line was a ho-hum six innings pitched, four hits, three runs (one earned), and one walk allowed, with six strikeouts and three batsmen hit by pitches. While Sunday’s performance was less than ideal, Rodon’s track record, and the fact that he has more than three months’ worth of starts before draft day, lessen the blow for evaluators. He gets Appalachian State next weekend. –Nick J. Faleris

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A special Thanksgiving Daily Draft Video takes a look at four standouts in next year's 2014 MLB Draft Class.


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