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Articles Tagged Carlos Lee 

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03-05

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4

Painting the Black: The Flawed Free Agents Who Are Left
by
R.J. Anderson

09-20

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8

In A Pickle: Introducing the Bloop Factor
by
Jason Wojciechowski

08-17

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2

The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, August 17
by
Matthew Kory

08-02

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 12: Sam Walks to His Honda
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-02

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13

Pebble Hunting: Non-Transaction Analysis: New-Money Ball
by
Sam Miller

05-04

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3

What You Need to Know: Friday, May 4
by
Daniel Rathman

04-23

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4

Pebble Hunting: Cautiously Sizing Up April Stats
by
Sam Miller

03-01

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16

Prospectus Preview: NL Central 2012 Preseason Preview, Part I
by
Stephani Bee and Larry Granillo

03-31

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42

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-15

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44

Fantasy Beat: Expert Mock Draft Results
by
Jason Collette

02-07

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16

Fantasy Beat: BP Scoresheet Early Draft Prep
by
Rob McQuown

08-04

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2

Seidnotes: Let's Go for a Free Pass
by
Eric Seidman

12-17

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23

Transaction Analysis: Threesome or Foursome?
by
Christina Kahrl

10-07

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11

Playoff Prospectus: Phillies versus Rockies LDS
by
Eric Seidman

04-16

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17

Checking the Numbers: Keeping Rare Company
by
Eric Seidman

03-06

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0

Fantasy Focus: Deciphering BABIP
by
Alex Carnevale

07-27

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Playing Matchmaker
by
Nate Silver

04-11

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0

Prospectus Today: Evaluating Extensions
by
Joe Sheehan

03-31

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0

Preseason Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-01

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0

Crooked Numbers: In Reverse
by
James Click

06-29

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Lee & Albert
by
Nate Silver

03-11

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0

Transaction Analysis: Offseason - The Centrals
by
Christina Kahrl

01-23

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0

Prospectus Feature: Breaking Out
by
Nate Silver

07-19

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0

Transaction Analysis: June 25-July 14, 2002
by
Christina Kahrl

07-01

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0

The Week in Quotes: June 24-30, 2002
by
Derek Zumsteg

03-24

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0

Transaction Analysis: March 14-22, 2000
by
Christina Kahrl

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December 17, 2009 9:23 pm

Transaction Analysis: Threesome or Foursome?

23

Christina Kahrl

Or was the Jays/Phillies/Mariners/A's swap-a-rama really just serial monogamy?

IN THIS ISSUE

American League
National League

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
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Signed LHP Cedrick Bowers, RHPs Matt Wright, Marcus McBeth, and Fernando Hernandez, and 1B-R Matt Whitney to minor-league contracts. [12/13]
Acquired OF-R Michael Taylor from the Blue Jays for 3B-L Brett Wallace. [12/16]

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October 7, 2009 11:41 am

Playoff Prospectus: Phillies versus Rockies LDS

11

Eric Seidman

A rematch from the '07 postseason makes for a great showdown of two teams with very different virtues.

Well, here we are again, with the Phillies and Rockies set to battle one another in the National League Division Series for the second time in three seasons. Just as it was in 2007, the Phillies enter the fray with a division title while the Rockies used an incredibly strong second half to win the NL Wild Card. Unlike that entertaining 2007 season, however, in which the Phillies ousted the Mets from the top spot of the NL East on the final day of the season, only to have their spotlight stolen soon thereafter by a Rockies team that won a controversial play-in game, this year's Phillies controlled their division practically all season. In addition, the Rockies' second-half surge proved so strong that they actually gave the division-leading Dodgers a run for their money in the final week. A good chunk of the 2007 cast of characters remains intact for each team, but enough has changed to merit a new writeup instead of a recycled version of the prior Phillies/Rockies preview.

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April 16, 2009 12:18 pm

Checking the Numbers: Keeping Rare Company

17

Eric Seidman

Ground-ball percentages go up for some pitchers, unintentional passes go down for others, but both at once, almost never.

While revisiting the 2008 dominance of Cliff Lee last week, we investigated how pitchers with similarly large spikes in ground-ball rates have fared in subsequent seasons. The results weren't pretty, and showed that massive rate increases in this area have been few and far between since 1954, and a very low percentage of these pitchers have been able to sustain these higher rates. The research in no way invalidated Lee's success, but rather suggested that factors outside of a change in approach could have an influence on his 2009 performance. Hurlers intent on inducing grounders tend to follow a different set of rules when it comes to HR/FB rates and their percentage of unearned runs than do their fly-balling colleagues, and the group relies on defense more than those whose skill is missing bats. Combine all of these ingredients, and it becomes evident that even if Lee were to become just the fourth post-1994 pitcher to increase his ground-ball rate by at least eight percent and then see it fall no lower than three percent over the following three seasons-all while meeting respectable playing time qualifiers-he is still not guaranteed even a fraction of the success he experienced last season.

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March 6, 2007 12:00 am

Fantasy Focus: Deciphering BABIP

0

Alex Carnevale

A little bit of knowledge about Batting Average on Balls in Play can help you decide which top sluggers to select in the early rounds.

One stat some of your leaguemates will ignore at their own peril is Batting Average on Balls in Play. BABIP for hitters isn't a complicated statistic, and just a basic understanding can be a fantasy boon. (Rumor has it that if it weren't for the efforts of the Dharma Initiative, it would have occupied baseball box scores when they first appeared in newspapers.) The "formula" breaks down like this:

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July 27, 2006 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Playing Matchmaker

0

Nate Silver

Three big bats, seven true contenders...Nate sorts out who'd be best served by making a big deal this weekend.

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Two sluggers moved into higher tax brackets Monday, but just one of the deals looks like a good investment for the team.

The deals for Derrek Lee and David Ortiz are similar in a number of ways. Both involve local heroes who play on the left end of the defensive spectrum, and who are coming off monster seasons. Both players are 30 years old, and in what we would consider the back end of their primes.

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We conclude our predictions with the National League, plus the staff World Series picks.

Yesterday we started our prediction miniseries with a look at the American League. Today we unveil our National League and World Series picks.

Each author's ballot may be found later in the article. Here, we neatly summarize the results. In each division standings table you'll find the average rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about that team's place in the division standings. In our AL column, the Royals had a standard deviation of 0, meaning that all authors agreed they would finish last. And if it weren't for the rebellious, anti-establishment ways of one Keith Woolner, the Cardinals would notch a standard deviation of 0 on the other end of the standings.

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September 1, 2005 12:00 am

Crooked Numbers: In Reverse

0

James Click

Our view of the season would be very different if it had played out exactly in reverse to reality. James rewinds the year, and shows us how.

The length of the baseball season can easily obscure some important trends that are developing. Teams like the A's get noticed because their rise from the depths has been so dramatic that it breaks free of the mass of information built before its arrival. But there are may other trends that can easily escape our eyes because so much of the season has already passed.

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June 29, 2005 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Lee & Albert

1

Nate Silver

Nate Silver looks into the "Derrek Lee for Triple Crown" debate, and discovers Lee might not be the best candidate to pull it off, after all.

I decided to perform a statistical analysis of this question to add a bit more, well, statistical analysis to the debate. But first let me make a quick assertion that will seem to contradict decades worth of history: winning the Triple Crown shouldn't inherently be all that difficult. There's nothing all that difficult about leading the league in batting average, home runs, or RBI. Of course only one guy gets the opportunity to lead the league, per category and per year, but it isn't a feat on the order, say, of hitting .400 or in 56-straight games-or hitting 73 home runs.

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March 11, 2005 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Offseason - The Centrals

0

Christina Kahrl

Chris Kahrl breaks down the AL and NL Central's offseason moves in the latest Transaction Analysis.

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In an article that appeared last week on ESPN.com, Peter Gammons provided a list of 20 players whom respondants to an informal straw poll described as candidates for a breakout season. The list, derived from a survey of major league executives, included a mix of pitchers and hitters, five-tool talents and makeup guys, united only in their ability to tease hibernating fantasy leaguers into dreams of greener days ahead. If one needs any reminder that lists like these are little more than a grownup's version of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, it's worth reviewing a similar list that Gammons produced last year.

In an article that appeared last week on ESPN.com, Peter Gammons provided a list of 20 players whom respondants to an informal straw poll described as candidates for a breakout season. The list, derived from a survey of major league executives, included a mix of pitchers and hitters, five-tool talents and makeup guys, united only in their ability to tease hibernating fantasy leaguers into dreams of greener days ahead.

If one needs any reminder that lists like these are little more than a grownup's version of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, it's worth reviewing a similar list that Gammons produced last year. That list includes roughly equal representation of the good (Alfonso Soriano and Derek Lowe), the bad (J.D. Drew), and the ugly (Juan Uribe), as well as four players whose performances were so impressive that they made repeat appearances on this year's list.

Now, none of this is meant to be a knock on Gammons, or the lists he has compiled. Everybody likes to talk about breakout candidates this time of year, ourselves included (Eddie Yarnall, anyone?). Having formerly moonlighted as a daily team correspondent for another baseball website, I can attest to the fact that virtually every player provides at least some excuse each winter for gushing commentary, delusions of grandeur, or other forms of irrational exuberance.

As it happens, however, we're unrolling a new forecasting system at BP this year--one that is also preoccupied with the question of breakout candidates. The PECOTA system--short for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm--seeks to identify potential breakouts by comparing a player against a database of his historical peers. In so doing, it comes up with an objective estimate of the probability that a player will display marked improvement in the upcoming season (defined as an increase of at least 20% in his Equivalent Runs per plate appearance, or a decrease of at least 20% in his PERA, relative to a weighted average of his previous three years of performance). We refer to this estimate as a player's Breakout score. Readers interested in a more extensive treatment of the PECOTA system will find it in this year's book, and in the PECOTA glossary provided here.

One brief caveat: the PECOTA system is new technology. That doesn't mean that we stole it from the Raelians, or that we haven’t tested it thoroughly. But sometimes PECOTA provides us with definitive and unexpected answers, and we need to work backwards to try and explain why they came about. That's a bastardization of the scientific method, and I'll ask that you'll excuse me as I run through the hitters on Gammons' list.

Rank on Gammons List, Player, PECOTA Breakout Score

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ANAHEIM ANGELS Placed RHP Al Levine on the 15-day DL (shoulder tendinitis), retroactive to 6/27; recalled RHP John Lackey from Salt Lake. [6/28] I don't disagree with the idea of bringing up John Lackey to move into the rotation. Lackey is the organization's best upper-level prospect, and he's obviously ready to go.

Recalled RHP Matt Wise from Salt Lake; optioned RHP John Lackey to Salt Lake. [6/25]

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