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Articles Tagged Carl Pavano 

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02-27

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: Carl Pavano: A Career in Player Comments
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-07

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14

The Platoon Advantage: The Terrible Twins of 2012?
by
Bill Parker

01-23

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4

Pebble Hunting: Born to Be Twins
by
Sam Miller

08-24

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57

The Lineup Card: 11 Disastrous Acquisitions
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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14

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Curious Case of Francisco Liriano
by
Jay Jaffe

01-21

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10

Transaction Analysis: Junior Circuit Jumble
by
Christina Kahrl

11-18

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10

B-Warned: Carl Pavano
by
Brandon Warne

10-07

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9

Playoff Prospectus: Thursday LDS Game Projections
by
Eric Seidman

10-05

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19

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Twins vs. Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

04-16

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3

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting Pitchers
by
Bill Baer

03-08

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16

Team Health Reports: Minnesota Twins
by
Will Carroll

12-08

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12

On the Beat: Day One of the Winter Meetings
by
John Perrotto

08-09

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10

Transaction Action: Assorted AL Additions
by
Christina Kahrl

02-02

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4

The Week in Quotes: January 26-February 1
by
Alex Carnevale

09-08

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0

The Week in Quotes: September 1-7
by
Alex Carnevale

08-25

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The Week in Quotes: August 18-24
by
Alex Carnevale

10-30

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL East
by
Nate Silver

02-19

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The Week in Quotes: February 13-19
by
Alex Carnevale

10-21

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Pell Mel
by
Jay Jaffe

05-03

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 5/2/05
by
Jonah Keri

11-30

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-17

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Florida Marlins, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates
by
Baseball Prospectus

12-11

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0

Live from the (Mock) Winter Meetings
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-25

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Prospectus Today: Starting Beckett: The Right Call?
by
Joe Sheehan

10-23

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Prospectus Today: Game Four
by
Joe Sheehan

11-22

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Prospectus Feature: The Forty Million Dollar Question: Building the 2003 Expos (Part One)
by
Scot Hughes

07-19

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Transaction Analysis: June 25-July 14, 2002
by
Christina Kahrl

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What we wrote about the retiring pitcher in BP annuals from 1997 through 2013.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

On Wednesday, Carl Pavano announced his retirement. Pavano first appeared in the Baseball Prospectus annual in 1997, and as a career retrospective, we've collected the comments our book authors have written about him over the years. As a reminder, annual comments through 2013 are available to BP subscribers on our player cards. Baseball Prospectus 2014 is on sale now.

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Is there any hope that the Twins will be better than horrible this season?

First, let’s get this out of the way: The Minnesota Twins will probably be pretty bad, at best, this season. They lost a lot of games in 2011, and though many of the names and faces have changed, they’ll take the field in 2012 looking a lot like the same team. As a matter of sabermetric best practices, it’s probably a good idea to assume that they’ll lose a lot of games again. PECOTA and the depth charts currently see the Twins losing 91 games, in a two-way tie for the AL Central cellar and a three-way tie for last in the American League. That’s all very reasonable, and nothing you read here is going to dispute the notion that that’s exactly what’s most likely to happen.

What I’m wondering, though, is why it’s being treated as a foregone conclusion. Great analysts are dismissing the team without, well, analyzing. Our own departing-and-incoming managing editors—brilliant, insightful, and devastatingly handsome men, both—had things like this to say in their recent AL Central preview: “This team should trade any veterans not nailed down” … “they can’t compete” … “The Royals are about to leave the Twins in their dust” … “It’s going to stay bad before it gets better.” And they’re certainly not alone... they’re just the example I can find right now. On Twitter and elsewhere, the Twins have very quickly become a punch line. They’ve been written off completely.

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Minnesota Twins pitchers tend to be a lot like Brad Radke.

Last week, the Twins signed Brad Thompson to a minor-league contract. Two weeks earlier, Jason Marquis signed a major-league contract with the Twins. Jason Marquis pitches to contact, gets ground balls, strikes out few. Brad Thompson pitches to contact, gets ground balls, strikes out few. Some people are stars long before they get famous, and some people are artists long before they pick up a brush, and some people are Twins long before they become Twins.

Generally speaking, we all know what a Minnesota Twins pitcher looks like. He’s got a strikeout rate a tick below six per nine innings. (Even the movie Twins has 5.9 stars on IMDB.) He survives this limitation either by walking nobody—no-body—or by keeping the ball on the ground, but either way he’s not looking to coax a strike three out of anybody, and he’s not all that concerned about allowing a home run as long as there is nobody on base. He’s a veteran, and if he’s not a veteran, he’s just a future veteran in early but advanced development. He might be a lefty, but you don’t really think of him as a lefty. He’s a No. 4 starter with aspirations of being a No. 2.5 starter. He’s draftable only in the geekiest fantasy leagues. He once threw a ball 91 mph, but it was at one of those county-fair game booths and nobody believes him, even though he has a certificate of achievement that the booth operator gave him. If everything breaks right, he’s Brad Radke. If a few things break right, he’s Rick Reed. If things just break, he’s Boof Bonser.

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In honor of Adam Dunn, the BP Crew lists player acquisitions that backfired.

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February 23, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Curious Case of Francisco Liriano

14

Jay Jaffe

Can the Twins learn to love their power lefty, or will they finally get a good return in trade?

Earlier this month, the Twins made waves via a Minneapolis Star Tribune report stating that team officials are open to the possibility of trading Francisco Liriano. The 27-year-old lefty is coming off a strong 2010 season, and the Twins feel that his value may never be higher, that he's getting too expensive for their tastes, and that their rotation appears to be stocked well enough to withstand his departure. If those assumptions are true, it may be sensible to deal him, but a closer look at the situation suggests flaws in that reasoning.

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January 21, 2011 12:34 pm

Transaction Analysis: Junior Circuit Jumble

10

Christina Kahrl

The A's and Jays get with relief accumulation program, and will re-upping Pavano stop losses?

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November 18, 2010 2:55 am

B-Warned: Carl Pavano

10

Brandon Warne

Examining the career of the free-agent right-hander and and what to expect from him in the future.

Carl Pavano is hitting free agency for the third time in his career this offseason, and he’s hoping this can be the first time it doesn’t hit back. Neither of Pavano’s first two stops (Yankees and Indians) were too kind, but the Luigi look-alike is hoping that the third time is the charm.

Pavano’s first foray into free agency came on the heels of a 2004 season in which he posted a record of 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA. Times were much simpler then; flip-phones were still cool, I was fresh out of high school, and Jesse Behr was still a cub. More importantly, sabermetrics were still gaining momentum, which left Pavano’s sub-.500 career record (not of utmost importance, but perhaps still notable), sub 6.0 K/9, and 102 ERA+ largely unnoticed as he signed a four-year pact with the Yankees for just under $40 million.

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October 7, 2010 11:30 am

Playoff Prospectus: Thursday LDS Game Projections

9

Eric Seidman

PECOTA predicts how Thursday's slate of post-season games should turn out.

The postseason is now officially underway, and while PECOTA didn’t peg the exact results in the first three games, they were exciting nonetheless. Then again, I don’t think any projection or prediction lent credence to the idea that Roy Halladay would kick off his Doctober with a no-hitter—and one of those real­ no-hitters, not the cheap ones with five or more walks. Cliff Lee continued his playoff success by holding the Rays to just one run after a potentially scary first inning. And while the Yankees-Twins matchup wasn’t pretty from a pitching standpoint, it was certainly entertaining. But that was yesterday, and today we have three more matchups to discuss: the Rays and Rangers square off at 2:30 p.m. EST, the Twins host the Yankees at 6 p.m., and the Braves visit San Francisco for a 9:30 p.m. Two Game Twos. And Tim Lincecum’s post-season debut should make for quite the fun Thursday.

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October 5, 2010 11:00 am

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Twins vs. Yankees

19

Jay Jaffe

The Twins and Yankees meet yet again in the first round of the postseason but Minnesota has home field advantage this time.

As they did last year as well as 2003 and 2004, the Twins run squarely into the Yankee juggernaut in the first round. Unlike those other three meetings, they have home field advantage this time around, as they won the AL Central going away thanks to a league-best 48-26 second-half record. The defending world champion Yankees, who held the majors' best record for most of the season, were forced to settle for the wild card due to a sluggish 13-17 showing against a very tough schedule in September and October. Despite the relative temperatures of the two clubs, it's important to remember that late-season records aren't predictive of October success—or failure.

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April 16, 2010 9:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting Pitchers

3

Bill Baer

Which AL starting pitchers are being passed over in fantasy leagues nationwide?

Last week, we tackled a few National League pitchers that should be given more attention. This week, we will look at American League hurlers.

Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays

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March 8, 2010 11:58 am

Team Health Reports: Minnesota Twins

16

Will Carroll

It's time for Target, but do the Twins have particular health issues they need to target to land another title?

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December 8, 2009 10:30 am

On the Beat: Day One of the Winter Meetings

12

John Perrotto

Surprises with arbitration, minor exchanges, and rumors from Indy.

It used to be that free agents never accepted their club's offers of salary arbitration over staying out on the open market. However, it also used to be that clubs would open the checkbook wide for even the most average free agents. Things changed last winter when multi-year contracts were the exception rather than the norm on the free-agent market. This year, almost all 30 major-league clubs are saying that their payrolls for 2010 are going to stay the same or go down, and many players and agents are apprehensive about what the market might bear this winter.

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