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08-22

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17

The Lineup Card: Nine Memorable Late-Season Call-Ups
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-06

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Don Mincher, Part 1
by
David Laurila

02-29

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12

Prospectus Preview: AL West 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Jason Parks and Jason Wojciechowski

02-28

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13

Future Shock: Milwaukee Brewers Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-22

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28

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Derek Carty and Michael Jong

01-18

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16

Heartburn Hardball: The Hawk and the Dragon
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

01-16

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22

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Keltner All-Stars, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

01-13

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61

Heartburn Hardball: Jack Morris in Motion
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

12-20

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15

Overthinking It: Keeping Up with the Friedmans
by
Ben Lindbergh

12-02

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89

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing Best of Baseball Prospectus: 1996-2011
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-22

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: We Need More Awards
by
Derek Zumsteg

10-31

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11

Baseball ProGUESTus: Silly Goose: Mariano Rivera and the Myth of the Seven-Out Save
by
Kevin Baker

10-20

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Importance of Being 1-0
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-14

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7

The BP Wayback Machine: The Value of the Series
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Is the Best of Five the Worst of Series?
by
Mike Carminati

10-04

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7

Future Shock: Arizona Fall League Preview
by
Kevin Goldstein

09-29

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0

Painting the Black: Sizing Up the Playoff Rotations
by
R.J. Anderson

09-06

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3

Divide and Conquer, NL West: Beating the Weak and Powerless
by
Geoff Young

08-30

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30

The BP Broadside: Judge a Player by His Performance, Not the Company He Keeps
by
Steven Goldman

07-12

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7

Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 1
by
R.J. Anderson

05-24

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5

Baseball ProGUESTus: Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 1
by
Tom Tango

04-05

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27

Future Shock: Prospect Preview: NL Central
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-14

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7

Baseball ProGUESTus: Investigating the "Best Shape" Phenomenon
by
Rob Pettapiece

02-25

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38

Future Shock: Philadelphia Phillies Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-23

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33

Purpose Pitches: Wainwright Go Bye?
by
Christina Kahrl, Corey Dawkins and Marc Normandin

02-22

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38

Future Shock: Tampa Bay Rays Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-18

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68

Future Shock: New York Yankees Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-16

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38

Future Shock: Minnesota Twins Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-14

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29

Future Shock: San Francisco Giants Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-08

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44

Future Shock: Atlanta Braves Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-07

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21

Future Shock: Cincinnati Reds Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-03

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39

Future Shock: Texas Rangers Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-01

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22

Future Shock: San Diego Padres Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-28

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57

Future Shock: Red Sox Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-25

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36

Future Shock: Chicago White Sox Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-24

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13

Future Shock: The Rays' Golden Opportunity
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-21

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34

Future Shock: St. Louis Cardinals Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-19

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38

Future Shock: Toronto Blue Jays Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-18

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27

Future Shock: Colorado Rockies Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-13

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23

Future Shock: Detroit Tigers Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-13

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23

Prospectus Hit and Run: Trevor Hoffman and the Coming Wave
by
Jay Jaffe

01-11

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41

Future Shock: Oakland Athletics Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-11

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Don Mincher, Part I
by
David Laurila

01-06

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38

Future Shock: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-04

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43

Future Shock: Los Angeles Dodgers Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

12-24

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19

Future Shock: Florida Marlins Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

12-23

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2011: Bagwell and Baggage
by
Jay Jaffe

12-23

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12

Prospectus Perspective: What's Left on the Shelves?
by
Christina Kahrl

12-22

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57

Future Shock: New York Mets Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

12-21

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33

Future Shock: Milwaukee Brewers Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

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Does dropping the first game of the World Series to the Cardinals mean Texas is in trouble?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

In the wake of the Cardinals' Game 1 victory, revisit Rany's investigation of what it means to go down 1-0, which originally ran as a "Doctoring the Numbers" column on October 28, 2001.

Read the full article...

Does the randomness of a seven-game series detract from a champion's accomplishment?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

Read the full article...

As three series head to Game Fives, we dig up an investigation of the five-game format's fairness.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

As we prepare for the three remaining Division Series to be decided, revisit Mike Carminati's case for switching to a longer series format, which originally ran on November 2, 2006.


Read the full article...

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October 4, 2011 9:00 am

Future Shock: Arizona Fall League Preview

7

Kevin Goldstein

Previewing the most interesting prospects scheduled to participate in the AFL

The Arizona Fall League kicks off today, and before I get into the bread and butter of this piece, I want to provide a word of warning. Do not get too worked up over statistical performances in this league; you have to trust the scouting information. There are so many red flags when it comes to the numbers. Beyond the small sample sizes provided by a season that consists of approximately 30 games, you have a hugely offensive environment that is only bolstered by the imbalance of talent, as hitting far outweighs the pitching. A quick stroll through the AFL record book finds it littered with the likes of Scott Pose, Ken Harvey, and Tagg Bozied. While Dustin Ackley shined in last year's play, so did Conor Gillaspie and Mike McDade, along with Adam Carr on the pitching side. It's a fantastic opportunity to get another look at selected prospects, but as for statistical analysis, look elsewhere.

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September 29, 2011 9:00 am

Painting the Black: Sizing Up the Playoff Rotations

0

R.J. Anderson

Going team by team to determine which collection of hurlers is most imposing this October.

Nate Silver spent the final week of September 2006 evaluating playoff rotations in a manner reflected in his other work across various fields. The analysis was intuitive, yet innovative and unrivaled. What Silver incorporated that basic playoff rotation analyses often exclude is uneven workloads. Playoff teams may designate four starters, but they shift parts around due to the sporadic schedule and threat of extinction; after all, if a loss makes elimination inevitable, logic dictates having the best man lead the final surge.

The usage numbers Silver presented then are now dated, but the ones provided below are not, thanks to intern Bradley Ankrom. These new percentages include every postseason series since 1995, classifying the starters’ roles by their order of appearance in the playoffs. That means the number ones are the pitchers who started the team’s first playoff game, the number twos are those who started the team’s second playoff game, and so on. Some may note that this methodology may be skewed by the new playoff schedule, although until proven otherwise it should still provide more context than other tactics.

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September 6, 2011 5:00 am

Divide and Conquer, NL West: Beating the Weak and Powerless

3

Geoff Young

While the Giants flounder further from contention, the Diamondbacks continue to rise, largely thanks to their record against losing teams.

Through September 4, Arizona leads the division by seven games with 22 remaining. Although the Diamondbacks have earned their success by playing better than everyone else in the division for an extended period of time—Jay Jaffe has extolled the team's considerable virtues—they also have taken advantage of weaker opponents in a way that the Giants have not.

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Despite what Jon Heyman says, a player is what he is, regardless of what his team does.

The estimable Craig Calcaterra took John Heyman to task yesterday for conditioning his Most Valuable Player vote on whether a player’s team was in contention. Quoth Heyman:

I am not strictly opposed to a player on a non-contender winning the award, which has happened on occasion (think Alex Rodriguez of the last-place Rangers in 2003) although I admit that's a tougher one for me since the word valuable suggests that the players' achievements did not go for naught and actually helped a team play into October…

…[S]ince the award is for most valuable player, and not most outstanding, the effect a player had on the pennant race should be vital. If someone else wants to interpret most valuable as synonymous to best, they can. And if someone else wants to interpret it as being valuable to a particular team, they can, too. But there is plenty of precedent to suggest it means valuable in the league.

Read the full article...

Reviewing the best and worst first-half position players on each team.

In the numerical sense, the halfway point of the season arrived about a week ago. However, the All-Star break marks the arbitrary end point of the first half, bringing a few days of festivities and vacations to the forefront. That period of inactivity in games that matter offers a window into the frozen stats for each team, allowing us to see who is leading the charge and who is failing the team so far. 

In order to determine who’s been naughty and who’s been nice, I’ll enlist the aid of the Wins Above Replacement metric. Next time, we’ll cover the pitchers, but for today, it’s all about the position players.

Read the full article...

Tom Tango returns to answer your first batch of questions from last week.

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

You asked, he answered. Below are the first batch of responses to the questions BP readers submitted for sabermetrician Tom Tango. All questions are presented in their original form.

Read the full article...

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April 5, 2011 6:06 pm

Future Shock: Prospect Preview: NL Central

27

Kevin Goldstein

With an abundance of trades over the winter, who is left to take over as the NL Central's top prospects?

Chicago Cubs
How'd I do in 2010?: Of the five players given odds, three were not eligible for the this year's list; shortstop Starlin Castro (4-1) and right-hander Andrew Cashner (15-1) both saw their big-league timetables accelerated, while shortstop Hak-Ju Lee (10-1) went to the Rays in the Matt Garza deal. The eventual top prospect, outfielder Brett Jackson, got decent odds at (6-1), but the player with the best odds, third baseman Josh Vitters (3-1), saw his stock dip significantly.


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Should we expect better things ahead for players who report to Spring Training in the proverbial best shape of their lives?

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Rob Pettapiece, a recent Mathematics graduate from the University of Waterloo, wrote for Batter's Box for two years, currently edits the CIS Blog, and provides statistical analysis and consulting to coaches and journalists in several sports.


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February 25, 2011 6:06 pm

Future Shock: Philadelphia Phillies Top 11 Prospects

38

Kevin Goldstein

You want ceiling? We got your ceilings right here.

Previous Rankings: 2010 | 2009 | 2008

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