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02-08

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Rising Payrolls of the Post-Collusion Era
by
Jay Jaffe

01-31

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25

Overthinking It: Managing Expectations: Baseball's Next Big Inefficiency
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-30

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3

Wezen-Ball: John McGraw & Christy Mathewson: Out-of-Copyright Authors
by
Larry Granillo

01-19

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The BP Wayback Machine: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

01-18

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: The Arbitration Process
by
Thomas Gorman

10-07

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18

Baseball ProGUESTus: Moneyball and Money Men
by
Kevin Baker

03-22

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50

Prospectus Hit and Run: I Don't Wanna Go Down to the Basement
by
Jay Jaffe

11-16

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: Marvin Miller and Pat Gillick
by
Jay Jaffe

09-27

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10

Prospectus Q&A: Ken Burns
by
David Laurila

08-26

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35

Prospectus Perspective: Acting Like Thieves or Rational Agents?
by
Matt Swartz

04-27

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83

Ahead in the Count: Ryan Howard and the New MORP
by
Matt Swartz

04-15

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46

Ahead in the Count: Labor Market Discrimination
by
Matt Swartz

01-14

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10

Squawking Baseball: Waiting for the Winter of 2011-12
by
Shawn Hoffman

12-22

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20

The Real Curse
by
Colin Wyers

12-17

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26

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster
by
Matt Swartz

11-01

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2

Prospectus Q&A: Sam Fuld
by
David Laurila

05-29

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Take Me Out of the Hall Game
by
Jay Jaffe

04-13

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Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

07-29

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The Big Picture: Gambling on Umpires
by
David Pinto

05-17

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Schrodinger's Bat: Organized Common Sense
by
Dan Fox

02-19

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The Ledger Domain: MLB Needs to Reconnect
by
Maury Brown

02-16

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Prospectus Q&A: Andy Andres
by
David Laurila

12-04

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The Ledger Domain: Why the Free Spending?
by
Maury Brown

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

08-18

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Future Shock: Go West, Young Men....WAY West
by
Kevin Goldstein

06-29

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Schrodinger's Bat: Variations on a Monetary Theme
by
Dan Fox

06-05

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The Ledger Domain: Walter O'Malley and Marvin Miller For the Hall of Fame
by
Maury Brown

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: Pete Rose
by
Graham Bensinger

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: John Schuerholz
by
Jonah Keri

01-31

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The Arbitration Process
by
Thomas Gorman

06-29

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You Get What You Pay For
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-19

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You Could Look It Up: Managers Reconsidered
by
Steven Goldman

09-12

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6-4-3: Know Loss
by
Gary Huckabay

07-08

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Prospectus Q&A: Allen Barra
by
Alex Belth

04-30

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Prospectus Today: Owning Up to the Problem
by
Joe Sheehan

03-28

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6-4-3: What Can You Spell With Four Ps?
by
Gary Huckabay

02-24

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Breaking Balls: Portland's Gamble Might Pay Off
by
Derek Zumsteg

01-22

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6-4-3: Maddux vs. Atlanta - Son of Big Exciting Contest
by
Gary Huckabay

08-29

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Business for the Disinterested
by
Greg Spira

07-10

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DuPuy Disinforms
by
Doug Pappas

07-09

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The Daily Prospectus: A Sense of Entitlement
by
Gary Huckabay

04-18

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Sensible Revenue Sharing
by
Keith Woolner

02-19

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The Daily Prospectus: Salary Cap
by
Joe Sheehan

01-30

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The Daily Prospectus: Revenue Sharing
by
Joe Sheehan

01-24

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The Numbers (Part Five)
by
Doug Pappas

12-06

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The Imbalance Sheet: (Semi-) Open Books
by
Keith Law

05-31

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The Imbalance Sheet: More on Minnesota
by
Keith Law

03-07

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The Daily Prospectus: Contraction Action
by
Christina Kahrl

01-24

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An Unbalanced Idea
by
Joe Sheehan

12-19

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Catching a Piece of Sky
by
Derek Zumsteg

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August 18, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: Go West, Young Men....WAY West

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Kevin Goldstein

The new Hawaii Winter League isn't exactly new, writes Kevin Goldstein. Hawaii has a rich history of baseball that involves many of today's stars, and one man is making sure that history continues.

One of the best things about the prospect beat is that baseball never really ends. Once the regular season ends, some of the top prospects in the game (well, at least the hitting ones) head to the desert for the Arizona Fall League. Once that is done, baseball continues in Latin America with winter leagues in the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. Once those leagues end with the annual Caribbean Series, spring training starts and the cycle begins anew.

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June 29, 2006 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Variations on a Monetary Theme

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Dan Fox

Does an evenly balanced payroll put you at the front of the pack? Does it have anything to do with postseason success? Dan takes a look.

As this article goes to press, your humble author will be enjoying his first Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) convention being held in Seattle. In next week's column I hope to include a full report on some of the more interesting quantitative research presentations, along with a few general takes on the convention itself. I'll also be blogging from the Emerald City, so you'll be able to get a peek at the goings on.

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One man's case for a pair of the game's off-field giants.

Today, I'm making the case for two executives who have been passed over in years prior for the Hall. At the same time, I'd like to ask how these two individuals could be absent from Cooperstown in the first place. Both men altered MLB's landscape forever. Both changed the conventional thinking in MLB-both in terms of labor, and in terms of business. Both men directed their respective constituencies, either directly or indirectly. Both men are iconic.

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In a transcript from BP Radio's interview with Pete Rose, he talks candidly about reinstatement, steroids, the current state of the game, and more.

[Editor's note: Unlike most BP Q&A's, this was originally done for the radio format. We have edited interjections, pauses, and vocalizations for readability. You can hear the full version of the interview on the May 14, 2005 edition of Baseball Prospectus Radio.]

Read the full article...

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May 16, 2005 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: John Schuerholz

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Jonah Keri

The architect of two World Championship teams and the game's longest-running divisional dynasty talks about how he does his job.

Schuerholz recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about the transition from scout to general manager, the team's focus on drafting Georgia prep players, the importance of delegating, and more.

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January 31, 2005 12:00 am

The Arbitration Process

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Thomas Gorman

Over the next three weeks, hearings will be held to determine salaries for dozens of ballplayers. These hearings are the culmination of a process that begins in December, but has its roots in the early 1970s.

Salary arbitration had humble beginnings. The owners were exhausted by holdouts who refused to show up for spring training. The players were sick of having that refusal to play as their sole leverage in contract negotiations. With Flood v. Baseball failing to force a change in the reserve clause, arbitration seemed a reasonable solution.

Ed Fitzgerald, the Milwaukee Brewers Chairman and head of the owners' Player Relations Committee (PRC) in the early 1970s, embraced the idea as a way to neutralize the MLBPA's push for free agency. The Association's arguments against the owners would be weakened if the Lords showed a willingness to submit to binding and independent salary arbitration. Other owners, in particular the A's Charlie Finley and the Cardinals' Dick Meyer (who had experience with binding arbitration when he was labor chief of Anheuser-Busch), were suspicious, claiming that arbitration would drive salaries up. Which it would, compared to the status quo.

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June 29, 2004 12:00 am

You Get What You Pay For

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Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

Inherent in the desire to develop better baseball statistics--and as a result, improve baseball analysis--is the belief that this information is not only available but also not being used by the men and women who run baseball. As Moneyball and the resulting reaction has showed, some General Managers seem to be using the same methods for performance evaluation that were used 20 or 40 years ago. It therefore stands to reason that GMs are paying players not for actual performance, but rather for perceived performance as viewed through the rusty and decrepit glasses of decades-old beliefs about the statistics of the game. For this study we wanted to find out if General Managers were, in fact, paying players along the lines of their objective "value" (as defined by VORP), or if there were something else in play.

Inherent in the desire to develop better baseball statistics--and as a result, improve baseball analysis--is the belief that this information is not only available but also not being used by the men and women who run baseball. As Moneyball and the resulting reaction has showed, some General Managers seem to be using the same methods for performance evaluation that were used 20 or 40 years ago.

It therefore stands to reason that GMs are paying players not for actual performance, but rather for perceived performance as viewed through the rusty glasses of decades-old beliefs about the statistics of the game. For this study we wanted to find out if General Managers were, in fact, paying players along the lines of their objective "value" (as defined by VORP), or if there was something else in play.

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April 19, 2004 12:00 am

You Could Look It Up: Managers Reconsidered

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Steven Goldman

There isn't much about in the way of statistical reports on managers here at Baseball Prospectus. The official BP POV is that you need proof to prognosticate or pontificate, and there is little about managers that can be explained without resorting to subjective, anecdotal evidence. The most we can do is point out aspects of a manager's personality or performance that are well-documented and likely played some role in influencing the performances of those around him. Fortunately, the most successful and longest lived managers--not always the same thing--have left a fossil record of accumulated incidents that goes a long way towards defining them. Though it is impossible to prove a manager's precise effect on his team's record of wins and losses, the historical record contains ample evidence of managers' ability to both hinder and, in more select circumstances, help their teams. Here, in order, are the 20 managers who have compiled the most victories in the history of the game, with an emphasis on their human side--from which much about their teams can be inferred, but conclusions cannot be drawn.

Though it is impossible to prove a manager's precise effect on his team's record of wins and losses, the historical record contains ample evidence of managers' ability to both hinder and, in more select circumstances, help their teams. Here, in order, are the 20 managers who have compiled the most victories in the history of the game, with an emphasis on their human side--from which much about their teams can be inferred, but conclusions cannot be drawn.

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September 12, 2003 12:00 am

6-4-3: Know Loss

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Gary Huckabay

Last week, I laid out a reading list for new and potential GMs. This week, I want to draw attention to another excellent book, one with a slightly different viewpoint, but with a number of important and actionable concepts. Bear with me during this lengthy quote... "Micromanagement is risk free as long as you have the power to assign blame to the innocent. If your galactic incompetence ends up micromanaging a perfectly good project into swamp, blame the closest employee for not "speaking up" sooner." --Dogbert, nee Scott Adams, Dogbert's Top Secret Management Handbook Which, of course, brings me to Peter Ueberroth. It never fails to amaze me that people who demonstrate incompetence on a massive, majestic scale actually gain credibility, either within their own organization, or in an entirely new arena, where they're given approximately the same responsibilities which they bungled so horribly in the first place. In case you missed it, former Commissioner Peter Ueberroth, who had positioned himself as a responsible, proven leader running a dignified campaign in the Hunter Thompson-inspired California Gubernatorial Race, dropped out of that race on Tuesday, leaving the field wide open for the remaining "candidates."

It never fails to amaze me that people who demonstrate incompetence on a massive, majestic scale actually gain credibility, either within their own organization, or in an entirely new arena, where they're given approximately the same responsibilities which they bungled so horribly in the first place. In case you missed it, former Commissioner Peter Ueberroth, who had positioned himself as a responsible, proven leader running a dignified campaign in the Hunter Thompson-inspired California Gubernatorial Race, dropped out of that race on Tuesday, leaving the field wide open for the remaining "candidates."

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July 8, 2003 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Allen Barra

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Alex Belth

Allen Barra has written for numerous publications since the late-1970s, including The Village Voice, The Wall Street Journal, and currently The New York Times. In 2002, Barra authored Clearing the Bases: The Greatest Baseball Debates of the Last Century, which took a refreshing look at some of baseball's most argued topics. Recently, BP correspondent Alex Belth caught up with Barra to discuss his early days as a writer, the influence of Bill James on his work, and Major League Baseball's marketing department.

Baseball Prospectus: So what team did you root for as a kid?

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April 30, 2003 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Owning Up to the Problem

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Joe Sheehan

One of the baseball stories I managed to catch while on my vacation was Bud Selig's announcement that he would not pursue a new contract after his current one expires. This means that his tenure as commissioner--one that began with him taking the job on an interim basis a decade ago--would end in December 2006. It's no secret that I've disagreed with how Selig has run the game, in particular his anti-marketing strategies in pursuit of a favorable labor agreement. The short-term gain of a Collective Bargaining Agreement that benefited management wasn't worth the years of damage Selig and his cohort did with their relentless bashing of what was a healthy industry. Declines in attendance, TV ratings and revenue, as well as fiascoes like contraction and the Expos situation, can largely be traced to Selig's efforts to convince people that baseball wasn't viable, wasn't competitive, and wasn't worth their time. With a new CBA in place, though, and Selig setting his own exit date, it's time to look forward and see what can be done between now and the end of 2006. What positive steps can and should be taken to ensure that Selig leaves the game in better shape than it's in right now? Every now and then this year, I'm going to pick an aspect of the game and lay out what I think should be done to improve it. While I'll isolate one level of the game in each column, the ideas I'm presenting need to be viewed as a whole, as one big plan to get baseball where it needs to be. I'll start with the game's ownership, because I think everything grows from that. Over the past decade, baseball has brought in a number of owners, both individual and corporate, that have had a net negative effect on the game. From grandstanding over taxpayer-funded ballparks and inflated claims of losses, to taking short-term approaches in a long-term industry, the most recent set of "lords of the realm" have been a disaster.

It's no secret that I've disagreed with how Selig has run the game, in particular his anti-marketing strategies in pursuit of a favorable labor agreement. The short-term gain of a Collective Bargaining Agreement that benefited management wasn't worth the years of damage Selig and his cohort did with their relentless bashing of what was a healthy industry. Declines in attendance, TV ratings and revenue, as well as fiascoes like contraction and the Expos situation, can largely be traced to Selig's efforts to convince people that baseball wasn't viable, wasn't competitive, and wasn't worth their time.

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March 28, 2003 12:00 am

6-4-3: What Can You Spell With Four Ps?

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Gary Huckabay

For a long time, I've been trying to find someone who's at or near the top of the ladder in an MLB marketing department to talk to me about some of the unique challenges, opportunities, and practices in marketing an MLB club, and to give a spin-free answer to some of the tougher questions that readers have asked about MLB's policies over the years. On Thursday, I was fortunate enough to talk with the lead executive of an MLB club's marketing department, and they agreed to answer any questions I threw out, so long as I didn't give out their name.

On March 16th, Fred Halverson passed away after a long battle with illness at the age of 82. Mr. Halverson is directly and personally responsible for much of the success and happiness enjoyed in life by countless students of Menlo School, and he made a positive impact on my life for which I am forever grateful. He provided guidance and support at a time in my life at which I needed both, and his generosity and kindness will never be forgotten by those whose lives he touched. The world is greatly diminished by his passing, but more enriched by his having ever been with us.

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