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Happy Thanksgiving! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 1

Articles Tagged Baseball Salaries 

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02-08

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Rising Payrolls of the Post-Collusion Era
by
Jay Jaffe

01-31

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25

Overthinking It: Managing Expectations: Baseball's Next Big Inefficiency
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-30

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3

Wezen-Ball: John McGraw & Christy Mathewson: Out-of-Copyright Authors
by
Larry Granillo

01-19

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The BP Wayback Machine: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

01-18

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: The Arbitration Process
by
Thomas Gorman

10-07

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18

Baseball ProGUESTus: Moneyball and Money Men
by
Kevin Baker

03-22

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50

Prospectus Hit and Run: I Don't Wanna Go Down to the Basement
by
Jay Jaffe

11-16

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: Marvin Miller and Pat Gillick
by
Jay Jaffe

09-27

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10

Prospectus Q&A: Ken Burns
by
David Laurila

08-26

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35

Prospectus Perspective: Acting Like Thieves or Rational Agents?
by
Matt Swartz

04-27

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83

Ahead in the Count: Ryan Howard and the New MORP
by
Matt Swartz

04-15

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46

Ahead in the Count: Labor Market Discrimination
by
Matt Swartz

01-14

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10

Squawking Baseball: Waiting for the Winter of 2011-12
by
Shawn Hoffman

12-22

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20

The Real Curse
by
Colin Wyers

12-17

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26

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster
by
Matt Swartz

11-01

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2

Prospectus Q&A: Sam Fuld
by
David Laurila

05-29

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Take Me Out of the Hall Game
by
Jay Jaffe

04-13

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Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

07-29

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The Big Picture: Gambling on Umpires
by
David Pinto

05-17

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Schrodinger's Bat: Organized Common Sense
by
Dan Fox

02-19

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The Ledger Domain: MLB Needs to Reconnect
by
Maury Brown

02-16

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Prospectus Q&A: Andy Andres
by
David Laurila

12-04

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The Ledger Domain: Why the Free Spending?
by
Maury Brown

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

08-18

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Future Shock: Go West, Young Men....WAY West
by
Kevin Goldstein

06-29

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Schrodinger's Bat: Variations on a Monetary Theme
by
Dan Fox

06-05

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The Ledger Domain: Walter O'Malley and Marvin Miller For the Hall of Fame
by
Maury Brown

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: Pete Rose
by
Graham Bensinger

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: John Schuerholz
by
Jonah Keri

01-31

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The Arbitration Process
by
Thomas Gorman

06-29

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You Get What You Pay For
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-19

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You Could Look It Up: Managers Reconsidered
by
Steven Goldman

09-12

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6-4-3: Know Loss
by
Gary Huckabay

07-08

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Prospectus Q&A: Allen Barra
by
Alex Belth

04-30

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Prospectus Today: Owning Up to the Problem
by
Joe Sheehan

03-28

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6-4-3: What Can You Spell With Four Ps?
by
Gary Huckabay

02-24

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Breaking Balls: Portland's Gamble Might Pay Off
by
Derek Zumsteg

01-22

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6-4-3: Maddux vs. Atlanta - Son of Big Exciting Contest
by
Gary Huckabay

08-29

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Business for the Disinterested
by
Greg Spira

07-10

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0

DuPuy Disinforms
by
Doug Pappas

07-09

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The Daily Prospectus: A Sense of Entitlement
by
Gary Huckabay

04-18

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Sensible Revenue Sharing
by
Keith Woolner

02-19

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The Daily Prospectus: Salary Cap
by
Joe Sheehan

01-30

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The Daily Prospectus: Revenue Sharing
by
Joe Sheehan

01-24

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The Numbers (Part Five)
by
Doug Pappas

12-06

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The Imbalance Sheet: (Semi-) Open Books
by
Keith Law

05-31

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The Imbalance Sheet: More on Minnesota
by
Keith Law

03-07

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The Daily Prospectus: Contraction Action
by
Christina Kahrl

01-24

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An Unbalanced Idea
by
Joe Sheehan

12-19

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Catching a Piece of Sky
by
Derek Zumsteg

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January 14, 2010 12:42 pm

Squawking Baseball: Waiting for the Winter of 2011-12

10

Shawn Hoffman

Attempting to predict when the free-agent market can look to have a financial rebound.

Let's throw some cold water on an outdated idea: player salaries don't always go up. Over the long term, there's always going to be a decent amount of inflation in payrolls, but it's very cyclical-instead of rising 10 percent every year, as we lazily tend to assume, there are significant peaks and troughs along the way. Right now, because of the recession, we're in a down cycle-2010 payrolls will likely be flat from their 2008 levels, meaning that any team that signed a mediocre player to a "going rate" contract in '07 or '08, assuming that it would look cheap by the time it was done, is probably feeling very sorry today. On the flip side, there's a pretty good chance that we'll look back at some of the deals signed during this recession and think of them as absolute steals.

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December 22, 2009 12:48 pm

The Real Curse

20

Colin Wyers

Forget about the Bambino or the billy goats, there is a real curse out there, but one that gets you now, not during the season.

When is it a bad thing for a baseball team to win? On the field, of course, it never is. An extra-inning win may leave you with an overworked pen, for instance, but it's still better than having an overworked pen and losing. But when it comes to acquiring baseball talent, it is possible to lose by winning—something that economists call the "winner's curse." What we mean by winning in this case is having the winning bid for a player's services.

Of course, we don't often think of teams as being bidders. When we talk about the free agents market, we often talk about it as though teams are shopping for players on the open market—sellers set a price for their goods, buyers buy X quantity of goods based upon their reservation price, sellers adjust their price accordingly until they have maximized profit. There are certain qualities of that kind of a market that make it function properly.

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December 17, 2009 4:26 pm

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster

26

Matt Swartz

It may seem as though everyone involved in the Aces-for-Prospects swaps came out ahead, but it simply isn't so.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners, and Athletics put together a blockbuster trade that has rarely been seen in baseball history: nine players will belong to new organizations next year, including two former Cy Young winners very much in their prime.

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November 1, 2009 12:03 pm

Prospectus Q&A: Sam Fuld

2

David Laurila

The Cubs outfielder discusses using advanced statistics as a hitter, baseball's economic state, steroids, and the playoffs.

To quote a well-know Hanna-Barbera cartoon, Sam Fuld is smarter than the average bear. The Cubs' outfielder not only holds an economics degree from Stanford, he also thinks about the game of baseball analytically. A 10th-round pick in the 2004 draft, the 27-year-old Fuld certainly made the grade this season after earning a mid-season call-up, displaying excellent plate discipline while hitting .299/.409/.412 in 115 plate appearances over 65 big league games. Prior to joining Cub's outfield mix, the left-handed swinger hit .284/.358/.415 with 10 triples and 23 stolen bases at Triple-A Iowa. Fuld recently got together with BP to share his views on advanced stats, baseball's salary structure, the PED scandal, and the 2009 postseason.

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Marvin Miller wants no part of an invitation to Cooperstown.

The Hall of Fame was in the headlines last week, and not just because the retirement of Mike Piazza kindled the inevitable debate over the catcher's Cooperstown credentials. No, an even more deserving honoree made waves via what was almost certainly a first: a request to the voters not to be elected.

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April 13, 2008 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams

0

David Laurila

Talking arbitration with long-time baseball arbitrator, professor, and author, Roger Abrams.

The Richardson Professor of Law at Northeastern University School of Law, Roger Abrams has been a baseball salary arbitrator since 1986. A former scholar-in-residence at the Baseball Hall of Fame, Abrams is the author of four books, including Legal Bases: Baseball and the Law, and Money Pitch: Baseball Free Agency and Salary Arbitration. David talked to Abrams about the baseball arbitration process, including who is eligible, what can and cannot be argued at a hearing, and why arbitration works.

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July 29, 2007 12:00 am

The Big Picture: Gambling on Umpires

0

David Pinto

Further thoughts on what's at stake in the Donaghy scandal.

On July 19, the news hit that an investigation of point-shaving by an NBA referee was underway. Preventing a team from beating the spread is an ambiguous way of fixing games. The person or persons involved in the deception don't want a team to lose a game, just not win by very much, so in theory, bottom line won-lost records shouldn't be altered by point-shaving, just the stats of individual players. That's very different from the Black Sox scandal of 1919, when baseball players actually played to lose the World Series. People involved in point-shaving might feel they're not really hurting anyone, since the actual outcome of the game should remain the same.

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Dan reviews J.C. Bradbury's new book.

"[Economics] is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions."
--John Maynard Keynes, as quoted in the introduction to J.C. Bradbury's The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed


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February 19, 2007 12:00 am

The Ledger Domain: MLB Needs to Reconnect

0

Maury Brown

Talking to Bob and Peter Bavasi, Maury reflects on the gulf between what attracts people to the game, and what might drive them from it.

Ignorance is learned; innocence is forgotten.
-José Bergamín, The Rocket and the Star

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February 16, 2007 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Andy Andres

0

David Laurila

An interview subject is not often both a sabermetrician and a biologist. Andy Andres, the instructor of Tufts' Sabermetrics 101 class, sits down with BP.

Andy Andres teaches a class called "Sabermetrics: The Objective Analysis of Baseball" at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. Andres is also an Assistant Professor of Natural Science at Boston University and has taught a seminar in Exercise Physiology and the Physiology of Human Athletic Performance at Harvard for over 15 years. A data analyst for Ron Shandler at BaseballHQ, Andres has a PhD in Nutritional Biochemistry and Physiology.

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December 4, 2006 12:00 am

The Ledger Domain: Why the Free Spending?

0

Maury Brown

Maury sorts through what has spurred on an already-wild winter market.

At the end of a particularly difficult college philosophy course, a professor warned the students of the difficult final that would be approaching them. "It will count greatly toward your grade," he noted. As the day of the test arrived, a tense air filled the classroom as the test was passed amongst the students. "You have the entire class to answer the final. Now, turn over your paper and begin." When the paper was turned over, there was simply one question… Why?

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October 5, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two

0

Joe Sheehan

The Play is the talk of the water coolers, but plenty of other things happened on an abbreviated second day.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160071649_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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