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02-08

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Rising Payrolls of the Post-Collusion Era
by
Jay Jaffe

01-31

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25

Overthinking It: Managing Expectations: Baseball's Next Big Inefficiency
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-30

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3

Wezen-Ball: John McGraw & Christy Mathewson: Out-of-Copyright Authors
by
Larry Granillo

01-19

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The BP Wayback Machine: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

01-18

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: The Arbitration Process
by
Thomas Gorman

10-07

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18

Baseball ProGUESTus: Moneyball and Money Men
by
Kevin Baker

03-22

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50

Prospectus Hit and Run: I Don't Wanna Go Down to the Basement
by
Jay Jaffe

11-16

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: Marvin Miller and Pat Gillick
by
Jay Jaffe

09-27

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10

Prospectus Q&A: Ken Burns
by
David Laurila

08-26

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35

Prospectus Perspective: Acting Like Thieves or Rational Agents?
by
Matt Swartz

04-27

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83

Ahead in the Count: Ryan Howard and the New MORP
by
Matt Swartz

04-15

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46

Ahead in the Count: Labor Market Discrimination
by
Matt Swartz

01-14

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10

Squawking Baseball: Waiting for the Winter of 2011-12
by
Shawn Hoffman

12-22

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20

The Real Curse
by
Colin Wyers

12-17

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26

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster
by
Matt Swartz

11-01

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2

Prospectus Q&A: Sam Fuld
by
David Laurila

05-29

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Take Me Out of the Hall Game
by
Jay Jaffe

04-13

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Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

07-29

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The Big Picture: Gambling on Umpires
by
David Pinto

05-17

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Schrodinger's Bat: Organized Common Sense
by
Dan Fox

02-19

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The Ledger Domain: MLB Needs to Reconnect
by
Maury Brown

02-16

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Prospectus Q&A: Andy Andres
by
David Laurila

12-04

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The Ledger Domain: Why the Free Spending?
by
Maury Brown

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

08-18

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Future Shock: Go West, Young Men....WAY West
by
Kevin Goldstein

06-29

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Schrodinger's Bat: Variations on a Monetary Theme
by
Dan Fox

06-05

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The Ledger Domain: Walter O'Malley and Marvin Miller For the Hall of Fame
by
Maury Brown

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: Pete Rose
by
Graham Bensinger

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: John Schuerholz
by
Jonah Keri

01-31

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The Arbitration Process
by
Thomas Gorman

06-29

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You Get What You Pay For
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-19

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You Could Look It Up: Managers Reconsidered
by
Steven Goldman

09-12

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6-4-3: Know Loss
by
Gary Huckabay

07-08

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Prospectus Q&A: Allen Barra
by
Alex Belth

04-30

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Prospectus Today: Owning Up to the Problem
by
Joe Sheehan

03-28

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6-4-3: What Can You Spell With Four Ps?
by
Gary Huckabay

02-24

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Breaking Balls: Portland's Gamble Might Pay Off
by
Derek Zumsteg

01-22

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6-4-3: Maddux vs. Atlanta - Son of Big Exciting Contest
by
Gary Huckabay

08-29

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Business for the Disinterested
by
Greg Spira

07-10

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DuPuy Disinforms
by
Doug Pappas

07-09

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The Daily Prospectus: A Sense of Entitlement
by
Gary Huckabay

04-18

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Sensible Revenue Sharing
by
Keith Woolner

02-19

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The Daily Prospectus: Salary Cap
by
Joe Sheehan

01-30

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The Daily Prospectus: Revenue Sharing
by
Joe Sheehan

01-24

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The Numbers (Part Five)
by
Doug Pappas

12-06

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The Imbalance Sheet: (Semi-) Open Books
by
Keith Law

05-31

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The Imbalance Sheet: More on Minnesota
by
Keith Law

03-07

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The Daily Prospectus: Contraction Action
by
Christina Kahrl

01-24

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0

An Unbalanced Idea
by
Joe Sheehan

12-19

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Catching a Piece of Sky
by
Derek Zumsteg

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February 8, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Rising Payrolls of the Post-Collusion Era

0

Jay Jaffe

How have teams fared when they have a dramatic increase in payroll over the previous season?

Last time out, I examined the 2012 Mets' Opening Day payroll drop—projected to exceed $50 million—and placed it in the context of other drastic payroll cuts dating back to 1989, since my source for the payroll data, the USA Today Salary Database went back to 1988. Given data that went further back, I’d have liked to place the teardowns of the A's dynasties of the 1910s, 1930s, and 1970s—are there any other dismantlings so famous?—into a similar context, but as one Twitter follower said, we go to war with the data we have. Today I turn my attention to the flip side of the story, the largest payroll increases during a timespan that conveniently stands as the point when baseball was just emerging from its collusion scandal.

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Why the next big step for baseball teams might not be learning something new, but making better use of the information they already have.

“The management and analysis of data, whether it be scouting reports, statistics, medical information or video, is a critical component of our operation. We look forward to developing a customized program that utilizes the most advanced and efficient technology available in the marketplace today to facilitate quicker, easier and more accurate access to all the sources of information we use to make baseball decisions.”—Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein, January 2012

“[Statistical analysis] helps but doesn’t tell the whole story of the game. There is a lot of gut feeling you got to make. If you have a stat and see a flashing number and you see that this guy is doing very good against this other guy, you can use that in a game during a key situation. Yes. But we cannot just depend on stats alone. You got to depend on many other things… I don’t like to become a fantasy manager. The goal for a good manager is to have players who are able to manage themselves on the field.”—Unsuccessful Cubs managerial candidate Sandy Alomar Jr., November 2011

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A look at five turn-of-the-century books written by baseball stars of the time that are now available on your ebook reader.

I'm always in awe of the digital age we live in. Everything is on demand and at your fingertips. Music, movies, television, video games - they can all be enjoyed anywhere you are almost instantly. Books are the same way, with all the various e-book readers on the market now. In fact, instantly downloadable electronic books are so prevalent that each and every one of us can even read books about baseball written by turn-of-the-century Hall of Famers with just a few clicks of a mouse button.

Currently, there are at least five different baseball books available free on Google Books written by early-20th century baseball stars, including legendary Hall of Famers John McGraw and Christy Mathewson. These books are also available in other ebook stores, but the prices and availability differ.

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Talking arbitration with long-time baseball arbitrator, professor, and author Roger Abrams.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

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As teams and players settle in arbitration or avoid it entirely, refresh your memory on how the process works.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

Read the full article...

Baseball might be an unfair game, but not just for the reasons the movie would have you believe.

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Kevin Baker is a novelist and historian who is currently at work on a social history of New York City baseball, to be published by Pantheon. 

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March 22, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: I Don't Wanna Go Down to the Basement

50

Jay Jaffe

Contrary to what you might hear from more retrograde members of the baseball establishment, sabermetrics and storytelling don't have to be at odds.

As Opening Day approaches, hope springs eternal all around the majors. Some teams' bids at contention are founded upon the presumed maturation of exciting youngsters. Others rest their hopes on their stars' ability to turn back the clock and play as though their time had never passed. You could be forgiven for thinking that the latter was the strategy of the Anti-Sabermetric Brigade, a constellation of writers who insist upon fighting a war that has been fought and largely settled. Yet, signs of their resurgence keep popping up.

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November 16, 2010 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Marvin Miller and Pat Gillick

7

Jay Jaffe

The former MLB Players Association executive director and former GM are up for selection to the Hall of Fame.

Last week, I took a swing at analyzing the eight players on the Expansion Era Hall of Fame ballot to be voted upon at next month's Winter Meetings, using JAWS to evaluate their fitness for Cooperstown. That tool's not available when tackling the four non-players on the ballot, namely Pat Gillick, Billy Martin, Marvin Miller, and George Steinbrenner, whose achievements must be evaluated more subjectively. Nonetheless, it's apparent that relative to their already-inducted peers, they certainly have strong arguments in their favor. Today I'll examine the cases of Miller and Gillick, saving those of the Yankees' odd couple, Steinbrenner and Martin, for a later installment.

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The creative mind of the "The Tenth Inning" discusses baseball history and his upcoming PBS documentary that adds to his landmark "Baseball" series.

“The Tenth Inning,” a two-part, four-hour documentary by Ken Burns and Lynn Novick, airs on Tuesday, September 28 and Wednesday, September 29 on PBS. Burns’ new film is a sequel to his nine-part epic series, “Baseball,” which aired during the players’ strike in 1994.


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August 26, 2010 8:00 am

Prospectus Perspective: Acting Like Thieves or Rational Agents?

35

Matt Swartz

Are the Pirates not trying to be competitive by making a profit or just being good businessmen?

Many fans were outraged last weekend when the Associated Press, which had leaked some of the team's financial statements, reported that the Pirates had earned a profit while receiving money from Major League Baseball via revenue sharing while spending less on player payroll than nearly every other team in the sport. Apparently, fans are shocked that the people who charge them $5 for a hot dog are more interested in their money than their happiness. However, this is exactly what a system like MLB's revenue sharing is bound to do. It creates an incentive for small-market teams to earn more money by not investing in the product on the field.

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April 27, 2010 9:30 am

Ahead in the Count: Ryan Howard and the New MORP

83

Matt Swartz

Putting new valuation into action to evaluate the big bopper's big extension.

Just days after my two-part series introduced the new MORP to evaluate baseball contracts, the Phillies provided me with an excellent opportunity to put it into action by signing Ryan Howard to a five-year contract extension yesterday.

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Does Orlando Hudson have a point when he says black players are getting frozen out?

Jeff Passan reported Tuesday on Yahoo! Sports that Orlando Hudson suspects that Jermaine Dye has not gotten a major-league contract to his liking for sinister reasons. Specifically, Hudson claims:

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