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Articles Tagged Babip 

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06-17

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5

Moonshot: Striking Distance
by
Robert Arthur

03-12

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10

Five to Watch: American League Starting Pitchers
by
Craig Goldstein

03-10

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6

Five to Watch: National League Pitchers With Elevated BABIPs
by
Craig Goldstein

10-21

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Revisiting BABIP for Fantasy
by
Mike Gianella

06-19

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7

BP Unfiltered: Blind BABIP Results: You Suck
by
Sam Miller

06-19

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 227: Julio Urias and Young Pitchers/Prospects Switching Positions/Jose Iglesias and High BABIPs/Goodbye Base Coaches
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-18

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40

Pebble Hunting: Blind BABIP Test, Part 2
by
Sam Miller

05-03

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 195: Bad Body Language/Upgrading Bullpens/Steroids and the Children/BABIP and Bad Luck
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-02

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4

Overthinking It: Three Months in Marco Scutaro's BABIP
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-29

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9

Pebble Hunting: Ross Detwiler and Baseball's Most Extreme BABIP
by
Sam Miller

04-08

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43

Baseball Therapy: Rethinking Randomness: Pitchers and Their BABIPs
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-23

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 124: A World Without Easily Injured Pitchers/Hitter BABIP, and Whether Mike Trout Was Lucky/What We Think About Booing
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-10

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0

Resident Fantasy Genius: Using ISO to Legitimize High/Low BABIPs?
by
Derek Carty

07-09

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11

Pebble Hunting: The Blind BABIP Test: Results and Revelations
by
Sam Miller

07-06

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76

Pebble Hunting: The Blind BABIP Test
by
Sam Miller

05-29

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24

Overthinking It: Jonny Venters and What a High BABIP Looks Like
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-19

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13

Fantasy Beat: The Impact of BABIP, LOB%, and Luck
by
Jason Collette

11-22

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30

Spinning Yarn: How Does Quality of Contact Relate to BABIP?
by
Mike Fast

10-10

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3

Fantasy Beat: Hellickson's BABIP: Lucky or Sustainable?
by
Jason Collette

06-13

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4

Fantasy Beat: BABIPs, Young and Old
by
Jason Collette

05-10

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12

Manufactured Runs: The Deconstruction of Falling Stars
by
Colin Wyers

12-15

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27

Ahead in the Count: Ground-ballers: Better than You Think
by
Matt Swartz

09-17

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13

Ahead in the Count: High BABIPs and True Skill Level
by
Matt Swartz

09-10

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19

Ahead in the Count: The Biggest ERA-SIERA Divides of 2010
by
Matt Swartz

08-27

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43

Ahead in the Count: The Clutch and The Shifted
by
Matt Swartz

03-25

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26

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 3
by
Matt Swartz

03-24

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33

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 2
by
Matt Swartz

03-23

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26

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 1
by
Matt Swartz

03-17

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12

Ahead in the Count: Why SIERA Doesn't Throw BABIP Out with the Bath Water
by
Matt Swartz

01-10

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19

Prospectus Roundtable: BABIP and Line Drives
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-23

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3

Ahead in the Count: Zack Greinke and FIP
by
Matt Swartz

10-21

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30

Ahead in the Count: What Happened to Cole Hamels?
by
Matt Swartz

09-29

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9

Ahead in the Count: Pitcher BABIP by Count
by
Matt Swartz

09-15

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17

Ahead in the Count: The BABIP Superstars
by
Matt Swartz

05-31

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95

Prospectus Idol Entry: You Can Beat PECOTA Without a Computer Model
by
Matt Swartz

05-24

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63

Prospectus Idol Entry: Paper Covers Rock: Why Pitchers Don't Control Batting Average on Balls in Play
by
Matt Swartz

03-06

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0

Fantasy Focus: Deciphering BABIP
by
Alex Carnevale

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 10, 2012 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Using ISO to Legitimize High/Low BABIPs?

0

Derek Carty

BABIP spikes may be tough to read, but adding another unstable stat to the mix doesn't seem to help.

Last week, industry colleague Michael Salfino penned an interesting article for Yahoo! Sports discussing BABIP and how we might be able to tell legitimately good BABIPs apart from lucky ones (and legitimately bad BABIPs apart from unlucky ones).  A couple of you pointed the article out to me and asked for my take on it, so I thought it best to simply write up a post in case others were interested.  The article opens with:

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The results of the blind BABIP test are in. How did you do? And what can we learn from your answers?

On Friday, many of you took the blind BABIP test. I gave you 18 GIFs, in nine sets of two, each set comprising two batted balls. One was a hit. The other was an out. You guessed which was which, but you couldn’t see the outcome; the GIFs cut off at the frame just as contact was made, or just before contact was made. This was supposed to tell us something. I’ll get to the big result first: We’re the worst at this!

I tallied 82 full sets of answers, which is 738 individual guesses, of which 387 were correct. That is 52 percent correct. Closing our eyes and pointing would theoretically have earned us 369 correct answers.  All the wisdom of the 82 of you was worth 18 extra correct answers. So that's the big thing first.

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Can you tell which pitches will leads to hits and which will lead to outs without seeing the results?

If we want to evaluate a pitch, there are few things we can focus on. We can look at the qualities of the pitch itself as it moves toward home plate, including movement, pitch type, and location. We can look at the catcher's glove, to see how much it moves from its target. We can look at the batter, to see how balanced he is as he swings at it. And we can look at the result: hit, out, stung, dribbled. I have a theory, which is that we (non-scouts) are mostly unable to make much of the first, second and third ways. That, mostly, we only remember the fourth.

So what follows is an experiment. I don't know what the point of this experiment is or what it will show. I don't know the best way to conduct this experiment. This might be an experiment I revisit in a better form someday in the future. But the experiment is simple, and I think it will be interesting, and I can't wait.

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Every bloop, bleeder, and swinging bunt that has contributed toward the Braves setup man's .458 BABIP in 2012.

A few days ago, I got an email from someone who wanted to know why Jonny Venters isn’t dominating people like he did last year. He speculated that there’s something wrong with his stuff, or that his mechanics might be off.

I started formulating an answer even before I looked at the numbers. Well, it’s too small a sample to draw conclusions. Well, Venters was so good in 2011 that it’s unfair to expect a repeat performance. Well, he led the league in appearances last year, so maybe he’s feeling some fatigue.

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March 19, 2012 11:37 am

Fantasy Beat: The Impact of BABIP, LOB%, and Luck

13

Jason Collette

A look at which pitchers were lucky as a result of their BABIP and LOB%, which were unlucky, and which may have a chance of repeating what looks like a lucky/unlucky 2011

Last season, one of my favorite baseball reads that became useful fantasy knowledge was this piece by Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts.  What he laid out is something that I’ve recommended and used in previous years as a quick and dirty way to look for potential targets at the end of drafts. If you believe in simple regression to the mean, it makes sense to target pitchers that were well below their personal and/or league average, since logic dictates they should do better the following season. As Lederer put it:

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Mike continues his investigation of HITf/x data to glean more insights into whether pitchers can prevent hits on balls in play.

In the first part of this study, I used detailed batted ball speed information from HITf/x to examine the degree of skill that batters and pitchers had in quality of contact made or allowed. Here, I will look deeper into the question of why some batted balls fall for hits and others do not.

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October 10, 2011 11:24 am

Fantasy Beat: Hellickson's BABIP: Lucky or Sustainable?

3

Jason Collette

A look at the pitcher who posted the lowest BABIP in 21 years

Since the season has ended, many have been quick to point at the Rookie of the Year Candidate and his historically low .224 batting average on balls in play. Hellickson’s BABIP is the seventh lowest total since the 1980 season and the lowest since 1990. Only Jeff Robinson, Tom Browning, Pascual Perez, Tom Seaver, Dan Petry, and Jerry Ujdur have had BABIP’s lower than Hellickson’s in a season large enough to qualify for the ERA title. Before Hellickson’s result this season, Chris Young is the only other pitcher in this millennium with a BABIP this low—.230 in 2006.

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June 13, 2011 9:00 am

Fantasy Beat: BABIPs, Young and Old

4

Jason Collette

Jason looks at the difference between a high BABIP for a young player versus one for an old player.

Editors Note: This article was originally slated to run on Friday, so stats are as of last Thursday.  It doesn't change any conclusions for practical purposes.

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What does the future hold for Derek Jeter, and how can we tell?

Before we can talk about Derek Jeter (and yes, I think there’s still something to say about Derek Jeter that you haven’t already heard this season), we should probably clarify which Derek Jeter we’re talking about. There really are two Derek Jeters—the one who exists in fact, and the one who exists in myth.

The actual Derek Jeter is interesting enough as a player that one wonders why the myth was necessary—always an exceptional hitter, Jeter has always been a player who could’ve had a job on any team in the league. He will go into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and nobody will bat an eye. Then there’s the Captain—the athlete whom ad agencies consider akin to Tiger Woods and Roger Federer. The player so exceptional that he can displace a generational talent like Alex Rodriguez from his natural position.

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December 15, 2010 9:00 am

Ahead in the Count: Ground-ballers: Better than You Think

27

Matt Swartz

Ground-ball pitchers have several skills that traditional statistics do not account for.

There are two more important reasons why Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average's (SIERA) is so successful at predicting the following year's ERA. First, most other Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics, like FIP and xFIP, assume that pitchers have no control over their Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP), but we know that they do have some control. I have shown before that pitchers with high strikeout totals and low ground-ball rates tend to allow fewer hits per ball in play, and thus lower BABIPs. Of course, BABIP is subject to so much luck that it is nearly impossible to discern a pitcher's true ability to prevent hits on balls in play from his historical BABIP. That is why last year's FIP is much better at predicting this year's ERA than last year's ERA is. It strips ERA of BABIP (and sequencing) altogether and assumes league-average BABIP for all pitchers and random sequencing.

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September 17, 2010 8:00 am

Ahead in the Count: High BABIPs and True Skill Level

13

Matt Swartz

Look at which direction some hitters with high batting averages on balls in play are likely headed in 2011.

Last week, I discussed several pitchers who were pitching well in front of or well behind their peripherals using SIERA. This week, I will discuss several hitters who have particularly high BABIPs, and how much of that performance is skill versus luck.

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September 10, 2010 8:00 am

Ahead in the Count: The Biggest ERA-SIERA Divides of 2010

19

Matt Swartz

A look at some pitchers who have had good luck this season and some who haven't.

When Eric Seidman and I introduced SIERA in February, we were very careful to show that it predicts future ERA better than current ERA does. While Defense Independent Pitching Statistics are not a foolproof way to measure pitchers, using them as a guide to dig further into the numbers can be very helpful. Last October, I spent a couple articles analyzing Cole Hamels’ performance, and I highlighted how little was different between his 2008 and 2009 season, and how I expected his performance to improve as his luck neutralized. Sure enough, Hamels has seen his ERA fall back toward 2008 levels in 2010. In June, I disappointed Rockies fans by explaining the luck that had led to Ubaldo Jimenez’s 1.16 ERA at that time. Sure enough, he has a 4.36 ERA since that article was posted. Eric and I wrote on the Diamondbacks’ starters, stressing the bad luck that Dan Haren had seen to that point in the season. He had a 5.35 ERA, but it has been 3.59 since that article was posed and Haren has also been traded to the Angels. My point is not to cherry pick successes, but to prove that this type of analysis works. I certainly cannot be right every time I say a pitcher’s ERA is likely to fall or rise, because luck plays a role in pitching to a very large degree and luck by its very nature can reoccur. However, this type of analysis will prove prophetic more often than not.

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