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08-02

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The Buyer's Guide: Bradley Zimmer
by
Eric Roseberry

07-10

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4

The Buyer's Guide: Orlando Arcia
by
Eric Roseberry

07-03

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Michael A. Taylor
by
Eric Roseberry

06-23

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Fantasy Freestyle: Sticking It Out With Avisail Garcia
by
Matt Collins

06-20

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The Buyer's Guide: Mallex Smith
by
Eric Roseberry

06-02

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0

Circle Change: Three Catchers Walk Into a Casino
by
Zach Crizer

05-27

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Batted-Ball Trajectory and BABIP Overachievers
by
Wilson Karaman

04-20

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Fantasy Freestyle: Batted-Ball Profile and Team Defensive Context, Part 2
by
Wilson Karaman

06-23

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: What Can We Learn From Mookie Betts Exit Velocity?
by
George Bissell

06-17

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5

Moonshot: Striking Distance
by
Robert Arthur

03-12

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10

Five to Watch: American League Starting Pitchers
by
Craig Goldstein

03-10

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6

Five to Watch: National League Pitchers With Elevated BABIPs
by
Craig Goldstein

10-21

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Fantasy Freestyle: Revisiting BABIP for Fantasy
by
Mike Gianella

06-19

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7

BP Unfiltered: Blind BABIP Results: You Suck
by
Sam Miller

06-19

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 227: Julio Urias and Young Pitchers/Prospects Switching Positions/Jose Iglesias and High BABIPs/Goodbye Base Coaches
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-18

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40

Pebble Hunting: Blind BABIP Test, Part 2
by
Sam Miller

05-03

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 195: Bad Body Language/Upgrading Bullpens/Steroids and the Children/BABIP and Bad Luck
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-02

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4

Overthinking It: Three Months in Marco Scutaro's BABIP
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-29

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9

Pebble Hunting: Ross Detwiler and Baseball's Most Extreme BABIP
by
Sam Miller

04-08

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43

Baseball Therapy: Rethinking Randomness: Pitchers and Their BABIPs
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-23

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 124: A World Without Easily Injured Pitchers/Hitter BABIP, and Whether Mike Trout Was Lucky/What We Think About Booing
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-10

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Resident Fantasy Genius: Using ISO to Legitimize High/Low BABIPs?
by
Derek Carty

07-09

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11

Pebble Hunting: The Blind BABIP Test: Results and Revelations
by
Sam Miller

07-06

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76

Pebble Hunting: The Blind BABIP Test
by
Sam Miller

05-29

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24

Overthinking It: Jonny Venters and What a High BABIP Looks Like
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-19

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13

Fantasy Beat: The Impact of BABIP, LOB%, and Luck
by
Jason Collette

11-22

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30

Spinning Yarn: How Does Quality of Contact Relate to BABIP?
by
Mike Fast

10-10

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3

Fantasy Beat: Hellickson's BABIP: Lucky or Sustainable?
by
Jason Collette

06-13

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4

Fantasy Beat: BABIPs, Young and Old
by
Jason Collette

05-10

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12

Manufactured Runs: The Deconstruction of Falling Stars
by
Colin Wyers

12-15

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27

Ahead in the Count: Ground-ballers: Better than You Think
by
Matt Swartz

09-17

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13

Ahead in the Count: High BABIPs and True Skill Level
by
Matt Swartz

09-10

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19

Ahead in the Count: The Biggest ERA-SIERA Divides of 2010
by
Matt Swartz

08-27

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43

Ahead in the Count: The Clutch and The Shifted
by
Matt Swartz

03-25

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26

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 3
by
Matt Swartz

03-24

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33

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 2
by
Matt Swartz

03-23

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26

Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 1
by
Matt Swartz

03-17

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12

Ahead in the Count: Why SIERA Doesn't Throw BABIP Out with the Bath Water
by
Matt Swartz

01-10

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19

Prospectus Roundtable: BABIP and Line Drives
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-23

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3

Ahead in the Count: Zack Greinke and FIP
by
Matt Swartz

10-21

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30

Ahead in the Count: What Happened to Cole Hamels?
by
Matt Swartz

09-29

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9

Ahead in the Count: Pitcher BABIP by Count
by
Matt Swartz

09-15

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17

Ahead in the Count: The BABIP Superstars
by
Matt Swartz

05-31

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95

Prospectus Idol Entry: You Can Beat PECOTA Without a Computer Model
by
Matt Swartz

05-24

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63

Prospectus Idol Entry: Paper Covers Rock: Why Pitchers Don't Control Batting Average on Balls in Play
by
Matt Swartz

03-06

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Fantasy Focus: Deciphering BABIP
by
Alex Carnevale

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August 2, 2017 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Bradley Zimmer

0

Eric Roseberry

Zimmer has been getting on base and running for the Indians, and fantasy owners are starting to notice.

Bradley Zimmer was called up by the Cleveland Indians in May to help solidify their outfield. He was one of the top prospects in Cleveland’s system. Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as the Indians third-best prospect this season. Zimmer brought impressive speed to Cleveland, but also concerns about his ability to handle major-league pitching. These worries made fantasy owners timid to heavily invest in Zimmer early in the year.

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July 10, 2017 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Orlando Arcia

4

Eric Roseberry

Does a recently high batting average bode well for Arcia's immediate fantasy future?

Orlando Arcia made his major-league debut in 2016. Initially, his fantasy value was thought to be limited because his defense was his most valuable asset. Over the course of those 55 games, Arcia hit .219/.273/.358 with four home runs, 21 runs scored, 17 RBIs and eight stolen bases. His fantasy stock wasn’t high coming into 2017. Arcia did rate as a two-star player in Mike Gianella’s initial shortstop rankings, but Mike admitted this was “a speculative pick based on stats from a year ago.”

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July 3, 2017 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Michael A. Taylor

2

Eric Roseberry

He's running with an opportunity to play—but how long can Taylor keep up this kind of production?

Michael Taylor entered the season with limited fantasy value. The addition of Adam Eaton made Taylor the odd-man out in Washington’s outfield. However, injuries to several players (Eaton and Jayson Werth) have made playing time available. The 26-year-old is running with the opportunity, and he started to draw serious interest from fantasy owners.

Taylor saw the biggest change in ownership rate at CBS (19 percent to 48 percent) over the past week. Similarly, he saw the largest increase at ESPN (4.5 percent to 39.3 percent). In Yahoo’s latest “Transaction Trends,” Taylor was a top-10 addition in the outfield. He’s currently a top-50 outfielder by ESPN’s player rater, and he’s been providing owners with positive values in every standard fantasy category.

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June 23, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Sticking It Out With Avisail Garcia

0

Matt Collins

Garcia continues to produce well beyond his career norms at the plate. What should you do with him? Maybe just sit tight.

Even for a sport that revolves around unpredictability, this has been a weird fantasy baseball season. There have been complete collapses from fantasy mainstays, unfathomable performances from rookies, and breakouts from players we’d written off years ago. One member of the latter group is Avisail Garcia.

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June 20, 2017 4:42 pm

The Buyer's Guide: Mallex Smith

0

Eric Roseberry

With malace toward none but stolen bases toward many, here's Mallex Smith.

“It is a mistake to think that moving fast is the same as actually going somewhere.”

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June 2, 2017 6:00 am

Circle Change: Three Catchers Walk Into a Casino

0

Zach Crizer

Baseball players look less lucky and more skilled than ever.

We’d all like to think that we learn as we go along. Certainly, we are better and more efficient at unlocking our front door than the day we moved in, right? We must be better at making our coffee just right. At this point, we should be able to tie our shoes from a comatose state.

If we, speaking hypothetically, were the type of folk who frequent Las Vegas and the many establishments for which it is internationally renowned, we would hope to continually, perennially increase our prowess, or at least better wield what skills we do possess.

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May 27, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Batted-Ball Trajectory and BABIP Overachievers

0

Wilson Karaman

A look at several players who might be well equipped to sustain lofty batting averages on balls in play.

There’s a pretty well-established correlation between hitting the ball hard and successfully reaching base. Line drive performance tends to bear this out, insofar as batting average and slugging percentage on this kind of batted ball far outstrip the other two main batted ball types: fly and ground balls.

In the current era of advanced outfield positioning, flyballs have suffered the gravest of recessions recently. The number of fly-ball doubles and triples has declined over the past few years, driving an overall deterioration in fly-ball slugging percentage from .613 as recently as 2012 to its current .528 (which should be noted has rebounded significantly early on this year from two straight years of sub-.450 marks). Fly-ball batting average, meanwhile, remains buried well under the Mendoza line for a fourth consecutive season.

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Wilson examines a few worm-burners who benefit from the glovemen behind them and a few flyball hurlers whose outfielders cramp their style.

Last week I took a look at some groundball pitchers whose tendencies are wasted to a degree in front of poor infield defenses, as well as some flyball pitchers built fairly well for their outfield defenses and park contexts. This week (and with the added benefit of more current data!) we’ll turn the tables and look at the other half of the equation: groundball guys in good places and flyball guys in bad places. The additional week-plus of games allows us to at least peak at some of the early season trends that, while far from definitive, are at least starting to take some shape now. This won’t be nearly as helpful of a list, from the standpoint that a lot of the grounder guys are well-known and the fly ball culprits are all pretty comfortable on “Do Not Start!” lists near and far. Still, with the clearer early-season trends I think there’s some value in incorporating these returns into a list of fringier guys who may be somewhat more or less interesting given how their particular skills set jive with their supporting contexts.

Groundball Guys with Good Infield Defenses

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June 23, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: What Can We Learn From Mookie Betts Exit Velocity?

4

George Bissell

How Statcast exit velocity impacts the future of fantasy baseball analysis.

When MLB Advanced Media installed its brand-new Statcast tracking system in all 30 stadiums this spring, mainstream baseball fans (and fantasy owners alike) were exposed to a rapidly approaching new era of advanced statistics.

MLB front offices have had access to HITf/x data since 2008, but Statcast's release marked the first time that batted ball data was made available to the public. It's already had a profound impact on how mainstream writers analyze the game, however it's use as an analytical tool hasn't quite carried over into the fantasy baseball universe just yet.

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June 17, 2014 6:00 am

Moonshot: Striking Distance

5

Robert Arthur

A look at how pitch distance from the center of the strike zone affects BABIP and power.

"To be a good hitter you've got to do one thing: Get a good ball to hit."
-Rogers Hornsby


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March 12, 2014 6:00 am

Five to Watch: American League Starting Pitchers

10

Craig Goldstein

These junior-circuit hurlers had elevated BABIPs last year, but was it all because of bad luck?

As we learned in the NL iteration of this exercise, BABIP affects bad and good pitchers alike, but that doesn’t mean it is pure luck. Team defense, ground-ball rates and the ability to miss bats all factor in to a pitcher’s likelihood of retaining a low BABIP, decreasing a high BABIP or just producing consistent a consistent BABIP year-to-year.

Below are the top five BABIP affected pitchers in the American League from 2013. While one has since been sent to the National League, there’s reason to believe that four of the five have the ability to be better this year than they were last year. Then there’s Joe Saunders.


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March 10, 2014 6:00 am

Five to Watch: National League Pitchers With Elevated BABIPs

6

Craig Goldstein

These five starters saw a lot of the balls hit against them land for hits, but was it bad luck or a sign of things to come?

A lot of the time, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is used as a shorthand for luck, and while that can be the case, it’s not necessarily the case. Today I’m going to look at the top five BABIP pitchers in the National League with a minimum of 150 innings pitched to see what, if anything, connects them, and if that means there is hidden value in these players.

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