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07-13

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: First-Half Awards
by
J.P. Breen

04-07

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7

Prospectus Feature: Can the Twins Sweep ROY Voting, Still Lose?
by
Bryan Grosnick

02-17

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6

Prospectus Feature: The Way-Too-Early Baseball Awards Breakdown
by
Bryan Grosnick

10-23

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2

Internet Baseball Awards: Rejoice, The IBA Returns!
by
Ian Frazer

09-29

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12

Closer Report: 2015 Wrap-Up Awards
by
Matt Collins

11-13

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3

BP Unfiltered: The First Thing I Will Look For When MVP Results Are Announced Today
by
Sam Miller

11-13

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0

Skewed Left: Fixing Awards Season
by
Zachary Levine

11-10

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16

Regular Season Awards
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-01

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6

The Lineup Card: Awards We Wish We Could Give Out
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-30

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16

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot
by
Doug Thorburn

09-04

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12

The Lineup Card: Nine Comeback Player of the Year Candidates
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-15

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 330: A Lengthy Listener Email Show
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-30

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48

Regular Season Awards
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-12

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14

Skewed Left: PECOTA's Projected Bests and Worsts
by
Zachary Levine

11-26

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3

Baseball Therapy: The 2012 Silly Awards
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-14

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4

Internet Baseball Awards: National League
by
Dave Pease

11-09

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27

Internet Baseball Awards: American League
by
Dave Pease

10-04

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79

Ask the Industry
by
Jason Parks

09-27

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4

BP Unfiltered: Jeff Ballard Award
by
Geoff Young

09-20

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 46: The Meta-AL MVP Debate/Mike Trout's In-Game Adjustments
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

12-09

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0

Prospectus Feature: 2002 STATLG-L Internet Hall of Fame
by
Neal Traven

09-19

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0

Analyze This: We Need More Awards
by
Derek Zumsteg

07-09

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0

The Midseason Awards
by
Greg Spira

07-09

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0

The Midseason Awards
by
Greg Spira

07-05

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0

The Daily Prospectus: At the Half
by
Joe Sheehan

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July 13, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: First-Half Awards

5

J.P. Breen

With the All-Star break upon us, J.P. dishes out some (figurative) hardware.

HITTERS

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Does "three contributing rookies" correlate more closely to "rebuilding team" or "really good team"?

Flying cars, beaches in Kentucky, and Lucas Giolito—the future is going to be awesome. At the same time, we have no idea exactly how things will turn out. Still, armchair prognosticators and analyst-experts alike do our best. As such, the Baseball Prospectus staff published predictions for the 2016 season. As was noted by readers—and discussed briefly on Effectively Wild—the Twins have two interesting facets to their seasonal predictions. First, the top three predicted finishers in the American League Rookie of the Year voting are all members of the Twins: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Byung-Ho Park. Second, the Twins are projected to win just 78 games by PECOTA, but the staff predicts that they’ll come in fifth in the American League Central.

The best question here is this: Could the Twins be both a team with the three best rookies in the American League and also be a last-place team? There’s only one way to find out. (Just kidding, there are probably three.) But here’s one way: We can go back and look at previous years’ Rookie of the Year voting, examine the other teams that have had multiple ROY candidates, and see how they've fared.

I’m not looking for anything so strong as running the table for all three top spots in the Rookie of the Year voting. (Spoiler alert, that hasn’t happened in the past 30 years.) All I want is to find two or more rookies who received 5 percent of the vote. As such, I looked at the past 30 seasons—going back to the 1986 campaign. In the end, I found 15 teams in the past 30 seasons who fielded two players (or more) who earned 5 percent or more of the Rookie of the Year votes.

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Using PECOTA + context to handicap this year's MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races.

February is too early to try to predict major baseball awards. Hell, August is often too early to try to predict major baseball awards. Nevertheless, in celebration of the release of PECOTA, I’m here to take my hack at things. Though I’ve never been an especially successful prognosticator in the past, I find the old cliché to be true: “If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again (using better data).”

We can use PECOTA’s advice to help project a player’s upcoming performance, and while most people gravitate towards the WARP totals and the slash lines, those aren’t the only tools in the toolbox. We can use the percentile projections to see what the system figures the high end or low end of a player’s performance range might be. We can use the Breakout/Improve/Collapse/Attrition percentages to gauge the ways in which performance might shift from history. And we can look at component and peripheral pieces, filtering out the items we think might be most or least variable, and adjust our assessments accordingly.

With a little back-of-the-napkin work, we can also attempt to add the appropriate context to the data PECOTA provides. If MVP or Cy Young voting was a WARP sorting exercise, it’d be painfully simple to predict. Fortunately, it’s neither the sorting exercise or simple to predict. Contextual factors such as how the player displays their value in attention-grabbing ways (shout out to homers and strikeouts) and how a player’s team performs make it just a bit more difficult to choose an award winner based on numbers alone.

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Get all of your opinions out in one safe place. No, not THERE. Here.

The Internet, I’d argue, is an important part of today’s society.

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September 29, 2015 6:00 am

Closer Report: 2015 Wrap-Up Awards

12

Matt Collins

Handing out the ninth-inning hardware.

The fantasy year is just about over, and hopefully you’ve won or are on your way to winning your league. If not, hopefully you didn’t lose because of something I said. It’s been a typically frustrating season in the world of closers, and to end the year I figured I’d hand out completely subjective awards that were chosen by a panel of one.

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Will Chase Utley finally top his inferior teammate?

This will be the first time since Ryan Howard's partial rookie season that Chase Utley finishes ahead of him in MVP voting

Sam Miller (@SamMillerBP) May 24, 2014

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November 13, 2014 6:00 am

Skewed Left: Fixing Awards Season

0

Zachary Levine

The timing of the baseball awards creates a few issues, is there a better way to do things?

It’s probably more this year than most years, but every time an award comes out this awards season, we’re realizing more and more that we’ve entered disclaimer season.

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Presenting the staff results from the Internet Baseball Awards, along with abbreviated individual ballots.

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff choices for the Internet Baseball Awards. First, the cumulative results. Individual staff ballots may be found below below the group tallies..

AL Player of the Year

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The staff recognizes players and teams for things the current awards don't cover.

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September 30, 2014 10:22 am

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot

16

Doug Thorburn

The best "stuff" of 2014.

With the end of the regular season comes the start of awards season, kicking off debates over the ballplayers who had the most remarkable performances in 2014. MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year—these are the mainstream awards that will be wrestled over the next month—but here at Raising Aces we like to acknowledge another set of awards: the best stuff of the past season.

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The staff runs down the hopefuls for this year's comeback awards.

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Ben and Sam answer a strong selection of listener emails on award voting, the BBWAA, defensive stats, Phillies analytics, lefty catchers, free agent compensation systems, and more.

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