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Articles Tagged April 

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04-09

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17

The Lineup Card: Seven Memorably Misleading April Performances
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-25

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Move Along, Nothing to See Here (Probably)
by
Mike Gianella

04-23

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9

Fantasy Freestyle: Springing Into Action
by
Jason Collette

04-17

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3

Pebble Hunting: The Statistical Oddities of April
by
Sam Miller

04-05

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: Simmer. Down. Now.
by
Joe Sheehan

05-03

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7

The Lineup Card: 10 Things Learned in April
by
Baseball Prospectus

05-03

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0

Divide and Conquer, NL West: A Tale of Two Aprils, or In Which the Padres and Rockies Swap Places
by
Geoff Young

04-05

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Snowbound Schedule
by
Nate Silver

04-01

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7

Fantasy Beat: Three Tips for Surviving April
by
Jason Collette

04-29

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15

Squawking Baseball: Early Attendance Patterns
by
Shawn Hoffman

05-22

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19

Checking the Numbers: Going Streaking
by
Eric Seidman

06-04

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Prospectus Hit and Run: How I Learned to Stop Worrying About Early-Season Scoring Levels and Love Larger Sample Sizes
by
Jay Jaffe

03-28

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Prospectus Matchups: Opening Day Goodbyes
by
Jim Baker

10-17

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Digging in the Hit List Sandbox
by
Jay Jaffe

05-01

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Wait 'Til Next Year: Fight Money
by
Bryan Smith

04-13

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Lies, Damned Lies: Snowbound Schedule
by
Nate Silver

05-20

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Fantasy Focus: Keeping Your Cool with Cold Players, Part Two
by
Erik Siegrist

05-12

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Crooked Numbers: Are 'Roids the Reason
by
James Click

05-02

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Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Trends--The Easts
by
Erik Siegrist

04-21

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Crooked Numbers: April Fools
by
James Click

03-25

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Prospectus Matchups: Good Fridays Past
by
Jim Baker

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These players and teams led us astray in the early going in years past.

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April 25, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Move Along, Nothing to See Here (Probably)

6

Mike Gianella

Early-April stats may be meaningless, but is even a full month of data enough to reach any significant conclusions? Mike investigates here.

Toward the end of April, something funny starts happening to fantasy baseball owners. After one week, nearly every fantasy player looks at the stats, looks at the sample size, and simply dismisses the numbers as the product of a good or a bad week. After three weeks, this mindset changes considerably.

For reasons I cannot comprehend, after about 20 games, fantasy owners start diving into the numbers and drawing conclusions about whether or not their players are going to have good years or bad ones. The difference between 25 plate appearances and 75 plate appearances isn’t significant—yet, in the minds of some, that 50-plat- appearance gap is the difference between an insignificant sample size and a reason to wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat screaming “Giancarlo Stanton, you’re killing me!”

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April 23, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Springing Into Action

9

Jason Collette

Jason examines a group of players whose spring-training performances have carried over into April and another group whose haven't.

Earlier this month, Ben Lindbergh and Jon Shepard wrote an article reviewing the John Dewan rule about how spring training slugging can predict breakouts. Needless to say, the rule did not hold up well to scrutiny—and this should not come as a surprise to most people. Hot and cold performances in spring training are as predictive as Punxsutawney Phil. He did not see a shadow this February, which meant we would have an early spring. Yet, just last night, two more baseball games were snowed out, and many Midwesterners want to turn that groundhog into roadkill.

It has been just under a month since teams left Arizona and Florida to return to their respective home cities. Some players have picked up right where they left off in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, for better or for worse, while others have seen their game take a complete 180. Here are some players that fall into each one of those groups (all stats as of the completion of Sunday’s games).

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April 17, 2013 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: The Statistical Oddities of April

3

Sam Miller

What we see when looking at leaderboards, maybe before we should be.

Back when I was a community news reporter, editors were always stressing the idea that “everybody has a story.” Not everybody is powerful, or newsworthy, or “good,” but everybody has a story. And so it is with early-season leaderboards. Obviously they’re lousy for analysis and their lifespans are short, but they exist, if only for a few moments, and we should acknowledge that they existed, if only for a few moments.

Or, put another way, early season leaderboards are God’s way of showing us how much crazy ish is happening all the time and we don’t even notice it.

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It's as much a rite of spring as the game itself: overreacting to the events of the first week of play.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Joe Sheehan offered a reminder about overreacting to small April samples in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Prospectus Today" column on April 10, 2006.
 


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What were the BP staff's major takeaways from the season's first month?

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Comparing the April of 2010 to the April of 2011 for each team in the NL West.

Giants March/April Snapshot

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Revisiting Nate's attempt to quantify the trade-off in scheduling cold-weather games.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

As we welcome another stretch of cold-weather baseball and its attendant scheduling concerns, here's another look at Nate Silver's statistical take on the subject in a "Lies, Damned Lies" column from April 13, 2007.

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April 1, 2011 9:58 am

Fantasy Beat: Three Tips for Surviving April

7

Jason Collette

How to get through the season's first month without panicking.

Albert Pujols is on pace to hit into 486 double plays in 2011. This would shatter the record of 36 double plays that Jim Rice grounded into in 1984. Meanwhile, Robinson Cano is going to have problems hitting over .300 again, as he is on pace to strike out 324 times this season.

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April 29, 2010 9:40 am

Squawking Baseball: Early Attendance Patterns

15

Shawn Hoffman

April crowds are not always predictive for a full season but fewer fans are going to games so far.

We're only 3 1/2weeks into the new season, but Major League Baseball cannot be happy with the way things have started out in terms of attendance. Despite having what should be a ridiculously easy comparison season (2009 will hopefully be the worst economic year we'll have in a very, very long time,) teams are drawing 540 less fans per game, or about 2 percent off of their 2009 level. If we take out the Twins, who just opened their new ballpark, the numbers look that much worse, with the rest of the league down close to 4 percent.

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May 22, 2009 11:58 am

Checking the Numbers: Going Streaking

19

Eric Seidman

Ryan Zimmerman's recent flurry of safeties leads to a question over what other recent streaks we might have overlooked.

Back in 2007, fans of the Seattle Mariners were given free rides aboard the Wild and Wacky Weaver Wagon. On any given night, they had no idea whether the Jeff Weaver toeing the rubber would resemble the Mr. Hyde who had been victimized by 50 hits and a 14.32 RA in his first 22 innings of work, or the good Dr. Jekyll with the 3.10 RA and 1.26 WHIP over his next nine outings. As Weaver aptly demonstrated throughout that roller-coaster campaign, baseball is a game of streaks, with players fusing together stretches both hot and cold before arriving at their statistical bottom lines. Scan the game logs for any player in any season and you are bound to find spurts in which a Pujols hits like a Theriot, and vice-versa. In spite of their prominence, though, streaks can be very detrimental by distracting fans from actual production levels, and a little annoying as they tend to go unnoticed when not bookending a season.

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Examining a strange love for early-season results.

I've spent the past few weeks romping through baseball history in this space, and in the meantime we've passed both the one-quarter and one-third marks in the season. Now that the sample sizes have been beefed up a bit, the statistics we're seeing have started to accumulate a bit more weight, both on the spreadsheet and in the public mind.

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