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May 4, 2012 3:00 am

Pebble Hunting: When Age 27 Doesn't Work Out

10

Sam Miller

Brandon Wood is in the midst of yet another disappointing season at age 27. What other players have bottomed out when they were supposed to be peaking?

You couldn’t ask for a better place to hit than Colorado Springs. Last year, the hometown Sky Sox batted .305/.366/.489 as a team and allowed a 6.49 ERA as a team. It’s the craziest place to hit in the craziest league to hit, and it’s where Brandon Wood is hitting .253/.289/.418, with 19 strikeouts and three walks. It’s his age-27 season.

It’s wrong to say that age-27 is the magical year when everybody sets new personal bests. Some hitters peak in their 30s and some in their early 20s and some when they’re 25 and some when they’re 29. Twenty-seven is just a number, and when it starts a sentence, a hyphenated word. It’s only as significant as you make it.

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Marte is a former top prospect trying to hang on; Brantley has a much brighter future.

Andy Marte is a forgotten man at 26. Just a few years ago, Marte was a darling of the prospect hounds, including Baseball Prospectus. He was compared favorably to players like Adrian Beltre (at his best) and Miguel Cabrera. He posted mouth-watering power numbers at precocious ages in his respective leagues. He even displayed improving strike-zone command, with gradually rising walk rates and gradually decreasing strikeout totals. There was nothing not to like.

In 2005, BP declared Marte the top prospect in the game, after ranking him third in 2004. The praise wasn't the lone voice in the prospect-rating wilderness. Baseball America rated him as the Braves' top prospect in 2004 and as Boston's great minor-league hope in 2006. (The rankings were put together before Marte was flipped to Cleveland.) He was BA's ninth-ranked overall prospect in 2005. Even after Marte was traded twice in a 45-day span in late 2005 and early 2006, he seemed like as sure of a bet to become a big-league fixture as a young player possibly can be.

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The Indians' pair of deals do them all sorts of good, the Pirates finally get off the pot, while the Dodgers have an answer, but may need to ask another question.

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May 29, 2007 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: AL-brand Catsup

0

Christina Kahrl

Swinging over to the junior circuit, Christina tries to make some sense of some roster disasters and damage control.

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July 29, 2006 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: July 27-28, 2006

0

Christina Kahrl

The big deal we've been waiting for finally happens, and brings some smaller ones in its wake. Christina covers it all.

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February 22, 2006 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Prospects, Part Three

0

Nate Silver

PECOTA now turns its attention to the best infield prospects in the game.

Player WARP Upside Comb 1. Joel Guzman, SS, LAN (21) 19.9 175.6 374.3 2. Eric Aybar, SS, LAA (22) 20.8 161.2 369.2 3. Brandon Wood, SS, LAA (21) 18.7 161.2 347.8 4. Eduardo Nunez, SS, NYA (19) 16.4 181.6 345.7 5. Adam Jones, SS, SEA (20) 16.5 130.2 295.4 6. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLO (22) 14.6 100.3 246.7 7. Stephen Drew, SS, ARI (23) 13.4 103.8 237.8 8. Chin-Lung Hu, SS, LAN (22) 14.4 48.6 192.4 9. Yunel Escobar, SS, ATL (23) 13.1 59.5 190.9 10. Anderson Hernandez, SS, NYN (23) 14.0 47.2 187.0 11. Marcus Sanders, SS, SFN (20) 13.6 49.6 185.4 12. Tony Giarratano, SS, DET (23) 13.1 52.7 184.0 13. Joaquin Arias, SS, TEX (21) 13.3 50.0 183.1 14. Sean Rodriguez, SS, LAA (21) 13.9 38.9 177.4 15. Josh Wilson, SS, COL (25) 12.7 44.9 171.7 16. Bradley Harman, SS, PHI (20) 10.7 60.1 167.5 17. Welinson Baez, SS, PHI (21) 9.5 66.2 161.2 18. Rob Valido, SS, CHA (21) 12.3 36.8 159.9 19. Mike Aviles, SS, KCA (25) 11.0 48.7 158.5 20. Donald Kelly, SS, DET (26) 12.0 36.6 156.3 21. Sergio Santos, SS, TOR (22) 8.1 72.4 153.7 22. J.J. Furmaniak, SS, PIT (26) 10.9 40.9 150.2 23. Christopher McConnell, SS, KCA (20)8.8 56.7 145.0 24. Reid Brignac, SS, TBA (20) 9.6 45.0 140.7 25. Javier Guzman, SS, PIT (22) 10.7 30.2 137.1 26. Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL (19) 12.4 11.9 135.9 27. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, SEA (20) 9.3 33.3 126.0 28. Brendan Ryan, SS, SLN (24) 9.9 26.1 125.4 29. Danny Sandoval, SS, PHI (27) 9.7 24.1 120.8 30. Clifton Pennington, SS, OAK (22) 8.9 31.4 120.3 31. Jerry Gil, SS, ARI (23) 7.5 40.9 116.3 32. Matt Tuiasosopo, SS, SEA (20) 6.5 50.0 115.4 33. John Nelson, SS, SLN (27) 8.9 25.8 114.7 34. Michael Rouse, SS, OAK (26) 8.3 29.5 112.3 35. Ian Desmond, SS, WAS (20) 8.3 25.5 109.0 36. Matthew Macri, SS, COL (24) 7.6 33.0 108.5 37. Brandon Fahey, SS, BAL (25) 9.4 11.9 106.3 Back in September, when I first started looking over year-end minor league statistics in some detail, I was ready to bring the guns out in defense of Brandon Wood as our #1 guy, knowing full well that every other publication on the planet would have that chair reserved for Delmon Young. Instead, he slipped to #6 on our Top 50 list, and he would rank slightly lower than that--10th or 11th--on a pure PECOTA list. What happened?

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December 14, 2005 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: December 7-13

0

Christina Kahrl

Christina catches up with all the moves from last week's Winter Meetings.

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The Braves have one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. The Devil Rays have one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. The Blue Jays have one of the most...disappointing offenses in baseball.

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February 22, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part II

0

Baseball Prospectus

Wright or Marte, Marte or Wright. I love 'em both. I've put Andy Marte ahead for the moment, because of the 10-month age difference and because scouts seem to like him a lot more, but I really feel strongly that David Wright's as complete a prospect as there is in the game. I'd love to hear comments comparing the two, and Nate, I'd love to see what their PECOTA comps look like. Nobody else is that impressive. Dallas McPherson put up some serious numbers last year, and while some of that was in The Hangar in Rancho Cucamonga, he hit .314/.426/.569 in Arkansas. He doesn't have a great defensive reputation, but it's not terrible either, and he clearly outhit everyone else on this list. I don't know if anyone else deserves Top 50 consideration. I know people love the Greek God of Walks, but he hit .165/.295/.248 in Triple-A, over a 32-game sample. Of course, his full-season OBP was still .446, so... Chad Tracy hit .324 and his defense took a big step forward, but he doesn't do much more than hit singles, and it was Tucson. I respect that he's had two good seasons in a row, but he was in El Paso in 2002, so I'm not sure that means anything either. And as much as I hyped him a year ago, I have to concede that Brendan Harris may not be quite as good as I thought he was. But he's still a better prospect than almost anyone gives him credit for.

Baseball Prospectus Top 40 Prospects Roundtables:
2003 Part II
2003 Part I
2001


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December 23, 2003 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Andy Marte

0

Carlos J. Lugo

In 2002, at the tender age of 18, Andy Marte led the Appalachian League in RBI, was second in home runs, and had a composite line of .281/.344/.492. That performance made Marte an interesting prospect to be closely followed in 2003. This past summer in the Carolina League, Marte had another solid performance and jumped to grade-A prospect status. Baseball Prospectus minor league expert David Cameron said that Marte was the player "that most amazed me" in his most recent chat. Marte is getting regular playing time at the Dominican Winter League as the third baseman of the Azucareros del Este club, and he was kind enough to have a brief conversation with Baseball Prospectus. We interviewed Marte before his team most recent game at the Estadio Tetelo Vargas in San Pedro de Macoris.

Marte is getting regular playing time at the Dominican Winter League as the third baseman of the Azucareros del Este club, and he was kind enough to have a brief conversation with Baseball Prospectus. We interviewed Marte before his team most recent game at the Estadio Tetelo Vargas in San Pedro de Macoris.

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September 11, 2003 12:00 am

Prospecting: Andy Marte

0

David Cameron

One of my favorite parts of the recent Cleveland Pizza Feed was a conversation I had with one of our readers about the impossibility of this position: "There are nearly 5,000 players in organized minor league baseball. How on Earth can you possibly know something about all of them?" This was intended as a compliment, but the question is accurate, and is a truth that all minor league junkies face; we are bailing with a teaspoon. I see a lot of baseball games, talk with a lot of people who see more games than I do, and try to get a feel for every important player that you might want to know about, but it does not matter. Someone will always slip through the cracks, and I will inevitably jot down the lineup on my scorecard and ask myself, "Who is he?" Occasionally, one of these anonymous names stands out, and I go home intrigued by this new name to follow. Last year, I made that remark when I scribbled the name Andy Marte on my scorecard during a game between Greensboro and Macon. I had made the drive to see Carlos Duran, who was drawing comparisons to Andruw Jones (which are, at this point, laughable), and because Macay McBride was pitching for Macon that night. I knew a little about Marte before the game started; he was listed at age 18, had spent 2001 hitting like a pitcher in the Appalachian League, and had a pretty solid start to the 2002 campaign. After watching him flash the most impressive package of tools and performance I had seen all year, I made sure to find out more about "this Marte kid" when I got home.

"There are nearly 5,000 players in organized minor league baseball. How on Earth can you possibly know something about all of them?"

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July 7, 2003 12:00 am

Top 10 Prospects: July 1-6

0

David Cameron

Welcome to the first installment of Top 10 Prospects, Baseball Prospectus' weekly look at the 10 best prospects currently active in the minor leagues. Every week, David Cameron will look at those prospects who display the best combination of long-term potential, current performance, historical performance, and minimal risk. He'll also include a weekly list of Honorable Mentions, and Rising and Falling prospects. Dig in to find out who made the list.

What Goes Into These Rankings?

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