Alex Rios is tough to figure out, and is struggling once again. What does Craig think of his chances to rebound?
After a miserable 2009 season that saw Alex Rios set personal worsts in several offensive categories, he seemed to have rebounded in 2010. His final line of .284/.334/.457 with a .275 TAv wasn’t anything outstanding, but it was a huge improvement from the previous season. And it provided reason to hope.
Pegging BP's favorites in both leagues, both in the standings and for the major awards.
Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.
For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
Optioned OF-LJosh Reddick to Pawtucket (Triple-A); purchased the contract of LHP Billy Traber from Pawtucket; designated INF-RGil Velazquez for assignment. [8/5]
Placed OF-RRocco Baldelli on the 15-day DL (ankle); recalled OF-L Josh Reddick from Pawtucket. [8/6]
Recalled RHP Junichi Tazawa from Pawtucket; claimed INF-RChris Woodward off of waivers from the Mariners; designated RHP John Smoltz and LHP Billy Traber for assignment. [8/7]
Placed SS-S Jed Lowrie on the 15-day DL (wrist), retroactive to 8/7; purchased the contract of RHP Enrique Gonzalez. [8/8]
Designated RHP Enrique Gonzalez for assignment; purchased the contract of RHP Fernando Cabrera from Pawtucket. [8/9]
Outrighted LHP Billy Traber to Pawtucket. [8/11]
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Was the real Alexis Rios the one who lit up the Rogers Centre last year before being halted by a staph infection, or the one who put up mediocre lines in 2004 and 2005? Marc Normandin delves into the numbers to find out.
Alexis Israel Rios was selected by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 1999 amateur draft, pick #19 overall. He quickly signed that same month, and was shuttled off to Medicine Hat of the Rookie League. Rios' first two seasons at the Rookie, short-season A-ball, and Low-A levels didn't go well in almost every respect offensively:
Let's compare J.J. Hardy and Bobby Crosby:
Player Age EqBA/EqOBP/EqSLG
Hardy 20 .240/.316/.380
Crosby 23 .273/.356/.490
Adjusted for park and league context, Crosby's numbers were much, much better. How to balance that against the age differential? I think the question becomes: How likely is it that Hardy will post a line of .273/.356/.490 or equivalent by the time that he's 23? It's possible, certainly, and it's also possible that he'll post a line even better than that. But I don't think that it's *probable*. That's a lot of improvement to make. PECOTA would put the possibility at somewhere around 25%, I'd think, and I think that's enough to render Crosby the stronger prospect.