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Articles Tagged Albert Belle
Articles Tagged Albert Belle
BP.com's original column launched in 1996, TA has been where Christina Kahrl ponders the implications of recent roster moves, their impact on managerial tactics or how they reflect organizational behavior. Plus a few too many references to things that have nothing to do with baseball.
The off-season awards are cause for sound and fury, but what if past picks signify something about who will win?
As the recent scrum between supporters of the candidacies of Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira reminds us, nearly every Most Valuable Player Award is capable of producing controversy. Not only do the voters from the Baseball Writers Association of America rarely elect the player who, via some objective formula, is worth the most wins to his team, they appear to shift their standards from year to year, instead constructing narratives to fit whatever loosely-gathered facts are at hand. Particularly in recent years, defensive value is often minimized or entirely ignored in favor of heavy hitters with big Triple Crown stats, almost invariably from successful teams.
It's a mercifully McGwire-free Zone as Jay takes a look at the outfielders eligible for Cooperstown this year.
Last HHRRBIAVGOBPSLG AS MVP GG HOFS HOFM Bal 2006%
Baines 2866 384 1628 .289 .356 .465 6 0 0 43.5 66.5
Belle 1726 381 1239 .295 .369 .564 5 0 0 36.1 134.5 1 7.7
Bichette 1906 274 1141 .299 .336 .499 4 0 0 30.5 82.0
Buhner 1273 310 965 .254 .359 .494 1 0 1 25.8 34.5
Canseco 1877 462 1407 .266 .353 .515 6 1 0 38.1 103.0
Davis 1430 282 934 .269 .359 .482 2 0 3 26.8 27.5
Dawson 2774 438 1591 .279 .323 .482 8 1 8 43.7 117.5 5 61.0
Gwynn 3141 135 1138 .338 .388 .459 15 0 5 53.9 277.5
Murphy 2111 398 1266 .265 .346 .469 7 2 5 34.3 115.5 8 10.8
O'Neill 2105 281 1269 .288 .363 .470 5 0 0 36.9 70.5
Parker 2712 339 1493 .290 .339 .471 7 1 3 41.1 125.5 10 14.4
Rice 2452 382 1451 .298 .352 .502 7 1 0 42.9 147.0 12 64.8
White 1934 208 846 .263 .319 .419 3 0 7 21.3 34.5
EQA BRARBRAAFRAA WARP3 peak JAWS
Belle .318 673 479 -25 89.9 74.7 82.3
Rice .295 648 379 -16 89.3 58.2 73.8
AVG HOF LF 752 477 7 111.1 62.6 86.8
Davis .301 485 303 0 72.0 53.0 62.5
Dawson .285 670 334 3 109.5 58.4 84.0
Murphy .288 569 296 -19 91.6 67.1 79.4
White .269 341 86 97 79.1 51.0 65.1
AVG HOF CF 720 466 15 109.1 63.7 86.4
Baines .294 765 439 28 102.4 49.8 76.1
Bichette .267 266 55 30 53.6 36.1 44.9
Buhner .297 438 264 -25 64.4 48.5 56.5
Canseco .306 703 460 -30 87.7 55.2 71.5
Gwynn .307 860 569 -10 124.4 68.4 96.4
O'Neill .296 597 352 62 98.5 61.7 80.1
Parker .286 627 315 -43 86.1 54.8 70.5
AVG HOF RF 795 519 36 119.6 65.4 92.5
Five of these outfielders are holdovers: Albert Belle, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, and Jim Rice. All but Belle were nearly exact contemporaries who have been on the ballot for as long as I've been doing this. Until JAWS came along, they were relatively indistinguishable from a Hall of Fame standpoint, at least to me. Each had been one of their league's dominant players, but they all had more than a few warts, shortcomings or career gaps you could drive a truck through. The Baseball Writers Association of America has found some separation in the pack, as both Rice and Dawson have passed the 50 percent rubicon that's resulted in eventual entry into the Hall for every recipient except Gil Hodges. In the interests of space, we'll dispense with Murphy and Parker, as their cases haven't moved since last year.
With the election results to be announced tomorrow, Joe looks at who should go into the Hall of Fame--and who will.
Of the 14 new candidates, at least 10 are probably making their only appearance. Rick Aguilera, Gary DiSarcina, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Ozzie Guillen, Gregg Jefferies, Doug Jones, Hal Morris, Walt Weiss and John Wetteland all had prominent places in the game in their time, winning awards, making All-Star teams and contributing to championships. None, however, even passes the sniff test for Hall of Fame consideration. Their inclusion on this ballot is an honor unto itself, one that will likely serve as the sole coda to their playing careers.
Jay Jaffe uses JAWS to look at the newly eligible hitters on this year's Hall of Fame ballot.
Clay Davenport's Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) figures make an ideal tool for this endeavor because they normalize all performance records in major-league history to the same scoring environment, adjusting for park effects, quality of competition and length of schedule. All pitchers, hitters and fielders are thus rated above or below one consistent replacement level, making cross-era comparisons a breeze. Though non-statistical considerations--awards, championships, postseason performance--shouldn't be left by the wayside in weighing a player's Hall of Fame case, they're not the focus here.
Election to the Hall of Fame requires a player to perform both at a very high level and for a long time, so it's inappropriate to rely simply on career WARP (which for this exercise refers exclusively to the adjusted-for-all-time version, WARP3). In past years I identified each player's peak value by his best five consecutive seasons, with allowances made for seasons lost to war or injury. That choice was an admittedly arbitrary one, and for the 2006 ballot I've revised the methodology to instead use each player's best seven seasons without concern as to whether they're consecutive or not. It's a subtle change that doesn't have a huge impact, but it does require less manual labor to determine the injury and war exceptions, a welcome development from where I sit. Effectively, we're double-counting more of a player's best seasons, but given what we know about pennants added and
the premium value of star talent, individual greatness can have a nonlinear effect on a team's results both in the standings and on the bottom line.
I ran across a piece at the Baltimore Sun Web site, read through it, then spent two hours on an exercise bike and at the driving range to try to calm down. It hasn't worked, so I want to run through this piece, and begin to scratch the surface of what's wrong in Baltimore.
I was going to write a column this week that summarized some of the stuff from the NorCal Pizza Feeds. Actually, I finished the column, had it ready to go, and was planning to send it to Joe for editing Thursday morning. Then, after checking out the local papers for a few clubs, I ran across a piece at the Baltimore Sun Web site, read through it, then spent two hours on an exercise bike and at the driving range to try to calm down. It hasn't worked, so I want to run through this piece, and begin to scratch the surface of what's wrong in Baltimore.
Belle was a great player at his peak whose career was on a Cooperstown
trajectory until it was tragically cut short due to a medical condition
basically unrelated to baseball playing. Sound familiar? Do you feel a
sympathy vote coming on? Anyone think he'll get the same Hall of Fame
consideration as the ever-popular Kirby Puckett?
Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' predictions for 1999. We'll go division by
division and each of our staff members will tell you what they think about the
races. Remember, there's a reason we don't print this stuff in the book; there
is no good way we know of to predict what a team will do before the season
begins. Consider these teamwide WFGs, take them with a grain of salt, and