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Articles Tagged Aging Curve 

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And why we find it so difficult to remember how quickly the end can come for professional athletes.

Most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Brian MacPherson is in his fifth season covering the Red Sox, the last four of which have been for the Providence Journal. His career highlight as a player was accidentally stealing home on what he thought was a bases-loaded walk but actually was not. His career highlight as a sportswriter was the time in college when Roy Williams burst through the door to interrupt his interview with Dean Smith. You can follow him on Twitter at @brianmacp.
 


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A look at what the Brewers' rotation options offer from a stuff (and beer) perspective.

I like the old cliché, “You go as far as your starting pitching takes you.” It's best to have about seven to nine arms handy to get through the season, because pitchers often get hurt or fail to meet expectations.

Brewers fans may recall a recent season where they barely used six starters. Then, of course, there's last year, when they needed 11. Somewhere in between is normal. For the 2013 Brewers, the question is not if they will go deep into their rotation, but when. And as the summer nears, manager Ron Roenicke will be handing the ball to quite a few young arms.

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October 1, 2012 5:00 am

Baseball Therapy: When Do Players Stop Developing?

9

Russell A. Carleton

How old does a player have to be before we should stop expecting him to improve?

"He just needs another year."

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One of BP's co-founders returns to reveal an important amateur draft inefficiency.

Everyone missed on Mike Trout. Don’t get me wrong: Trout was a well-regarded player headed into the 2009 draft, a certain first-round talent. But he wasn’t—yet—a phenom. Everyone liked Trout; it’s just that no one loved him. Baseball America ranked him as the 22nd-best player in the draft. No one doubted his athleticism or his work ethic; a lot of people doubted the level of competition he faced as a high school player from rural New Jersey. The Angels drafted him with the 25th pick overall, and they’ll tell you today that they knew he was destined to be a special player. What they won’t tell you is that they had back-to-back picks at #24 and #25, and they announced Randal Grichuk’s name first.

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February 22, 2010 12:01 pm

Ahead in the Count: Evaluating Multi-Year Deals

29

Matt Swartz

A surprising revelation that players often do better in the second year of two-year contracts than the first.

Each year, about 25 players receive two-year contracts. The inevitable question that analysts ask is whether it was smart to commit to the player for a second year, or whether the team should have stuck with one year. But did you know that most players receiving two-year deals in recent years actually do better in the second year of their contract? Players who receive three- and four-year deals produce similarly in the first two years of their deals as well, instead of declining as many people believe.

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April 18, 2008 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Adding Birthdays

0

Nate Silver

After a quick bit of aging, the Astros' shortstop might not lose much to Father Time now, but the clock's ticking.

My first thought after I learned that Miguel Tejada was two years older than his listed birth date was that I wasn't really all that surprised by the news. My second thought was that he just threw away his shot at the Hall of Fame. One of these two thoughts is valid; the other is a little out of place. Let's take care of the obvious part first. Below is a comparison of Miguel Tejada's original PECOTA forecast with a new one that we've generated by aging him exactly two years and leaving everything else alone:

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February 22, 2007 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Turning the Page

0

Dan Fox

Dan hits on a few topics related to age and team success, including a more detailed look at the NL Central.

"Age is a case of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it don't matter."
--Satchel Paige

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February 15, 2007 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Age Before Beauty

0

Dan Fox

Dan shows that young, fresh faces aren't necessarily what makes for the best ballclubs.

-Oliver Wendell Holmes

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