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Articles Tagged Aaron Nola 

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March 2, 2017 6:00 am

Tale of the Tape: Michael Fulmer vs. Aaron Nola


Mark Barry

Which of these young right-handers is a better fantasy investment?

The American sage Kevin McCallister once spun a tale about the danger of holding something too dear. See, Kevin had a pair of rollerblades that were so nice, and he didn’t want to wreck them, so he kept them in the box. He was too cautious. Such is the plight of watching and valuing young starting pitchers. Often times it’s hard to enjoy watching young pitchers, expecting the eventual worst. We need to take young Kevin’s advice, hope for the best and try to savor the experience before the inevitable. Or something.

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Which young pitchers does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?

“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in PECOTA’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records.

PECOTA assigns each player a “breakout rate” for the upcoming season based on their odds of beating their established level of recent performance by at least 20 percent, with historical player comps serving as an important factor. Because the entire system is based on regressed-to-the-mean, 50th percentile projections, breakout rate identifies the players most likely to leave that in the dust for their 70th, 80th, and 90th percentile upsides.

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The only thing better than doing something once is doing something twice.

After last week’s events, two new classes of U.S. amateur players have entered professional baseball since the class of 2014, which has seen some fast-moving performers. This means it’s a good time to take the pulse of that class again and peek at just how differently it might have turned out if we were drafting with the information that we know now. You may remember that we did this last year as well, so we’ve included those selections as well—if you want to get the full picture, this is the reason hyperlinks were created.

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July 20, 2015 6:00 am

The Call-Up: Aaron Nola


Christopher Crawford and Mike Gianella

Aaron Nola has been billed as a major-league ready pitcher since the season started. Find out why he'll live up to the hype.

The situation: The Phillies are all but mathematically eliminated from the 2015 playoffs, possessing the worst record and run differential in all of baseball. The “positive” that comes from this is that Philadelphia can now see what their youngsters are capable of, and another piece of the rebuilding puzzle will make his debut on Tuesday in the form of Aaron Nola.

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May 15, 2014 6:00 am

What Scouts Are Saying: May 15, 2014


Baseball Prospectus

Scouts' takes on Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Julio Urias, and other interesting players.

Many of our authors make a habit of speaking to scouts and other talent evaluators in order to bring you the best baseball information available. Not all of the tidbits gleaned from those conversations make it into our articles, but we don't want them to go to waste. Instead, we'll be collecting them in a regular feature called "What Scouts Are Saying," which will be open to participation from the entire BP staff and include quotes about minor leaguers and major leaguers alike.

Major Leagues

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