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March 17, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing ADP to Identify Bargains

4

J.P. Breen

Based on where they've been selected in drafts to date, these players could provide a significant return on your preseason investment.

Throughout the offseason, the Fantasy Team has analyzed every position group in multiple ways. We have offered tiered rankings, three-year rankings, dynasty rankings, and various kinds of player profiles. We have even suggested players to target and avoid at each position, though that’s more of a compilation of individual opinions than some kind of overarching consensus. I’d argue that no other site has provided such a comprehensive preview, both in terms of breadth and depth, of the 2016 fantasy season.

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March 17, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Draft Rankings: The Top 300

13

Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

Mike and Bret unveil their top 300 overall players for this year's draft.

This is a list of the Top 300 players as ranked by Bret Sayre and Mike Gianella. This list assumes standard 23 man rosters with two catchers, which is why the list is so catcher-heavy at the bottom. If you play in a league with one catcher, adjust accordingly.

ADP is from NFBC ADP, and is updated as of yesterday’s posted rankings on Stats Inc.’s website.

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March 9, 2016 6:00 am

Early ADP Analysis: Relief Pitchers

0

George Bissell

A look at where closers and setup men have been selected in drafts held to date.

Welcome to the final installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends. The goal of the series is to identify trends in the data to improve our draft-day strategy going forward. The early ADP data referenced for this entire series, housed at STATS.com, is from 2016 National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues, which are comprised of 15 teams. Therefore, the average round data is reflective of that league size.

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February 29, 2016 6:00 am

Early ADP Analysis: Starting Pitchers

14

George Bissell

A look at where the rotationa arms are being selected in the early batch of drafts this spring.

Welcome to the penultimate installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends. The goal of the series is to identify trends in the data to determine what we can learn to improve our draft-day strategy going forward. The early ADP data referenced for this entire series, housed at STATS.com, is from 2016 National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues, which are comprised of 15 teams. Therefore, the average round data is reflective of that league size.

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February 16, 2016 6:00 am

Early ADP Analysis: Outfielders

3

George Bissell

A look at where players at this position have been selected in the first batch of drafts this spring.

Welcome to the latest installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends. The goal of the series is to identify trends in the data over time to determine what we can learn to improve our draft-day strategy going forward.

A Brief Position Eligibility Primer
The standard we use for our pre-season content at BP to determine position eligibility is 20 games played. Some league providers set their eligibility threshold at just 10 games played, so make sure to check with your specific league settings if there is any question as to where a specific player may quality in your league. Hitters are ultimately ranked at the position deemed to be more valuable fantasy-wise. Fantasy owners should remain cognizant of hitters who qualify at multiple positions, but instead of rankings them at every position for which they are eligible at, we have chosen to rank them only at the position with more fantasy value.


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February 1, 2016 6:00 am

Early ADP Analysis: Third Base

9

George Bissell

A look at where the third sackers are being selected in the first batch of 2016 fantasy drafts.

Welcome to the fourth installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends. The goal of the series is to identify trends in the data over time to determine what we can learn to improve our draft-day strategy going forward. This week’s edition focuses on the hot corner, which features a trio of the most electrifying young sluggers in the game at the top of the position, and a slew of quality veteran options as well. The late rounds are relatively barren, but not completely bereft of talent if you know where to look. Regardless, the sheer volume of insane talent headlining the position makes up for it’s relative lack of depth.

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January 25, 2016 6:00 am

Early ADP Analysis: Second Base

11

George Bissell

A look at where second sackers have been selected in the drafts held to date.

Welcome to the third installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends. The goal of the series is to identify early trends in the data to determine what we can learn to improve our draft-day strategy. This week’s edition shifts our attention away from burly sluggers to the keystone, which features a plethora of dynamic fantasy contributors, especially elite speedsters, in the early rounds, along with a handful of intriguing youngsters and undervalued veterans to speculate on in the later portion of 2016 fantasy drafts.

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January 18, 2016 6:00 am

Early ADP Analysis: First Base

16

George Bissell

A look at where the fantasy-relevant first sackers were selected in the first batch of 2016 drafts.

Welcome to the second installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends to determine what we can learn from them to help improve our draft-day strategy heading into 2016.

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January 11, 2016 6:00 am

Early ADP Analysis: Catchers

5

George Bissell

A look at where the backstops are going in the first batch of 2016 fantasy drafts.

Welcome to “Catchella.” If you’re looking for the hologram of J.R. Towles, you came to right spot. Coincidentally, this also happens to be the first installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends to determine what we can learn from them to help improve our draft-day strategy in 2016.

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January 8, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: A Look at Preliminary ADP Data

0

Wilson Karaman

It's never too early to see how drafts are shaping up for the coming fantasy season.

As you’re hopefully aware, over the next several weeks we here at Baseball Prospectus will be getting all down and dirty on just about every possible split, projection, and angle in our positional series. For the full syllabus I encourage you to take a gander here, and it’s worth noting that our own George Bissell will be penning a position-by-position look at ADP trends. To kick things off, I figured it might just be worthwhile to take a stroll through the preliminary ADP data that’s starting to trickle in for early-drafting NFBC leagues. A couple procedural notes, NFBC leagues play in a 15-team format, so the language below regarding rounds reflects that league depth. The data is also both relatively thin and updating in real time at that link, so by the time you read this the draft position number I reference may have migrated minimally.

Getting to it, it is abundantly clear at first glance that there is a startling changing of the guard underway in the second half of the first round. Once you’ve traversed the top five, the next four players exiting draft boards (Carlos Correa, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Kris Bryant) are all unable to rent cars. Combined with Trout and Harper at the top, this is a remarkably young top 10 that skews three full years younger than last year’s list (25.2 years old versus 28.2 in 2015). Only Josh Donaldson will play the season at age 30, so managers in the early going are betting on the young wave of elite talent to anchor their teams.

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March 27, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: BP Rankings vs. ADP

5

Wilson Karaman

Comparing when the fantasy staff would advise you to take players to when they're actually being selected.

This article took shape thanks to the comments and suggestions of BP readers Tuck and TroJim. The former noted that a column elaborating on some of the larger discrepancies between Mike Gianella’s Top 300 list and current ADP numbers might be a helpful exercise in helping drafters determine value, and I agree. And then in a response to questions about the utility of our Darkhorses series focusing on generally known and highly drafted players, TroJim made the following excellent point: “Like the stock market... some people try to get rich on penny stocks and others find success in discerning which blue chips will perform the best.”

And lo, a column was born. I’m going to focus this article on the players with the largest gaps between our own ranking and ADP from the top 84 names on Mike’s list, as that cutoff represents the top six rounds of a standard 14-team league. I don’t think I’m breaking much ground with this declaration, but the top six rounds of a draft are extremely important rounds. These are your blue chip players, the foundation upon which your team is built. It’s possible to win with an underwhelming start, but it’s awfully difficult.

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March 11, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: ADP Underachivers: Hitters

0

Wilson Karaman

Given where they're going in drafts right now, you might do well to pass on these five bats.

It’s here! Your draft is finally here! Yes, one of the most wonderful times of the fantasy baseball year is upon us, and that means narrowing down our target lists. One of the best ways to do this is by comparing you own player valuations with finally relevant ADP compilations as a means to figuring out who you may be able to secure the best surplus value potential by acquiring. Your basic goal above all else on draft day should always be to maximize the potential surplus value you can generate with your picks. That means targeting guys who are the most likely to outperform their draft positions, thereby giving you the greatest cumulative advantage in value production over your opponents.

One of the best ways to not accomplish that goal is by ending up with guys who have poor chances to produce value equivalent to the cost you paid to acquire them. In other words, if I draft a guy in the fifth round who goes on to produce numbers that are equal to a guy someone else drafted in the ninth round, my player has generated negative value for me. Not good.

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