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March 27, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: BP Rankings vs. ADP


Wilson Karaman

Comparing when the fantasy staff would advise you to take players to when they're actually being selected.

This article took shape thanks to the comments and suggestions of BP readers Tuck and TroJim. The former noted that a column elaborating on some of the larger discrepancies between Mike Gianella’s Top 300 list and current ADP numbers might be a helpful exercise in helping drafters determine value, and I agree. And then in a response to questions about the utility of our Darkhorses series focusing on generally known and highly drafted players, TroJim made the following excellent point: “Like the stock market... some people try to get rich on penny stocks and others find success in discerning which blue chips will perform the best.”

And lo, a column was born. I’m going to focus this article on the players with the largest gaps between our own ranking and ADP from the top 84 names on Mike’s list, as that cutoff represents the top six rounds of a standard 14-team league. I don’t think I’m breaking much ground with this declaration, but the top six rounds of a draft are extremely important rounds. These are your blue chip players, the foundation upon which your team is built. It’s possible to win with an underwhelming start, but it’s awfully difficult.

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March 11, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: ADP Underachivers: Hitters


Wilson Karaman

Given where they're going in drafts right now, you might do well to pass on these five bats.

It’s here! Your draft is finally here! Yes, one of the most wonderful times of the fantasy baseball year is upon us, and that means narrowing down our target lists. One of the best ways to do this is by comparing you own player valuations with finally relevant ADP compilations as a means to figuring out who you may be able to secure the best surplus value potential by acquiring. Your basic goal above all else on draft day should always be to maximize the potential surplus value you can generate with your picks. That means targeting guys who are the most likely to outperform their draft positions, thereby giving you the greatest cumulative advantage in value production over your opponents.

One of the best ways to not accomplish that goal is by ending up with guys who have poor chances to produce value equivalent to the cost you paid to acquire them. In other words, if I draft a guy in the fifth round who goes on to produce numbers that are equal to a guy someone else drafted in the ninth round, my player has generated negative value for me. Not good.

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March 7, 2014 9:26 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15


Paul Sporer and BP Fantasy Staff

The fantasy crew tries to peg the top 15 picks and predict breakouts from later picks.

We know from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster that since 2004, there is a 36 percent success rate in the ADP projecting the top 15. The most in any one year is seven of 15; the least is four. With that in mind, I challenged the fantasy team to try to guess the top 15. In addition to their stab at the top 15, I had them give their answers on the following:

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How ADP's are changing over the past 5 weeks

Here is the latest ADP data from NFBC, sorted by the largest player drops. 

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A review of the latest NFBC draft reports

There have now been 71 different drafts completed by NFBC participants. The worksheet is now too large to turn into a scrollable embedded window, so the link to the complete online worksheet can be accessed here

Here are the 5 largest gains and drops from the last report on 2/14:

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The latest report is out

The online worksheet has been updated with the latest ADP report from NFBC. The sheet shows the 1st report from 2/7, the latest one from 2/14, the delta between the two numbers, where the player went in the LABR mixed draft this past Tuesday night, and the difference between the player's ADP and his LABR draft position.

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The fantasy team will be publishing this data on a weekly basis for your tracking pleasure. The fantasy team will also revisit the ADP data in a column every other Monday to look for trends.

This data is courtesy of our friends at STATS LLC who run the National Fantasy Baseball Championships. They tell us that since Ryan Braun was named in the Biogenesis report, he's going no higher than 4th in any of the mock drafts that have been run after going first overall in four of the previous six drafts. The data below is from the 37 most recent mock drafts that the NFBC members have run in February. If the embedded google worksheet does not work for you, click here for a direct link to the worksheet.


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