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March 7, 2014 9:26 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15

21

Paul Sporer and BP Fantasy Staff

The fantasy crew tries to peg the top 15 picks and predict breakouts from later picks.

We know from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster that since 2004, there is a 36 percent success rate in the ADP projecting the top 15. The most in any one year is seven of 15; the least is four. With that in mind, I challenged the fantasy team to try to guess the top 15. In addition to their stab at the top 15, I had them give their answers on the following:

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How ADP's are changing over the past 5 weeks

Here is the latest ADP data from NFBC, sorted by the largest player drops. 

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A review of the latest NFBC draft reports

There have now been 71 different drafts completed by NFBC participants. The worksheet is now too large to turn into a scrollable embedded window, so the link to the complete online worksheet can be accessed here

Here are the 5 largest gains and drops from the last report on 2/14:

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The latest report is out

The online worksheet has been updated with the latest ADP report from NFBC. The sheet shows the 1st report from 2/7, the latest one from 2/14, the delta between the two numbers, where the player went in the LABR mixed draft this past Tuesday night, and the difference between the player's ADP and his LABR draft position.

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The fantasy team will be publishing this data on a weekly basis for your tracking pleasure. The fantasy team will also revisit the ADP data in a column every other Monday to look for trends.

This data is courtesy of our friends at STATS LLC who run the National Fantasy Baseball Championships. They tell us that since Ryan Braun was named in the Biogenesis report, he's going no higher than 4th in any of the mock drafts that have been run after going first overall in four of the previous six drafts. The data below is from the 37 most recent mock drafts that the NFBC members have run in February. If the embedded google worksheet does not work for you, click here for a direct link to the worksheet.

 

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