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Articles Tagged 2003 

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02-06

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: Beware of Falling Payrolls
by
Jay Jaffe

06-23

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1

Manufactured Runs: Batted Balls
by
Colin Wyers

02-09

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139

Prospectus Today: Stupid Media Tricks
by
Joe Sheehan

03-21

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Joba and the MISERs
by
Jay Jaffe

01-31

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Schrodinger's Bat: Back to the Drawing Board
by
Dan Fox

10-12

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Prospectus Matchups: Lets Get Loaded and See What Happens
by
Jim Baker

09-20

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Schrodinger's Bat: Taking Advantage
by
Dan Fox

08-28

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Prospectus Toolbox: Non-Contact Part V
by
Derek Jacques

01-02

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The Ledger Domain: The Fourth Amendment, the MLBPA and the BALCO Investigation
by
Maury Brown

12-08

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What the Numbers Say
by
Clay Davenport

09-14

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Schrodinger's Bat: The Whole, the Sum, and the Parts
by
Dan Fox

08-17

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Schrodinger's Bat: Using The House Advantage
by
Dan Fox

08-07

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Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-29

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Schrodinger's Bat: Variations on a Monetary Theme
by
Dan Fox

03-27

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Future Shock: How Do Teams Draft?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-25

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Call it a Comeback
by
Ben Murphy

09-05

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Swinging for the Fences
by
Will Carroll and Mike Carminati

05-09

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Fantasy Focus: Keeping Your Cool with Cold Players
by
Erik Siegrist

03-28

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2005--Setting the Stage
by
Rany Jazayerli

01-17

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Prospectus Triple Play: Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

12-10

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Prospectus Triple Play: Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

12-08

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Prospectus Triple Play: Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-02

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Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Montreal Expos, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-19

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Prospectus Triple Play: Montreal Expos, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-18

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Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-17

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Prospectus Triple Play: Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-11

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Prospectus Triple Play: Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-24

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Prospectus Triple Play: Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part III
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-05

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0

Winter Leagues, Redux
by
Clay Davenport

01-27

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Winter and Fall League Translations
by
Clay Davenport

01-26

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A Study in (Near) Perfection
by
Blake Kirkman

01-16

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Transaction Analysis: The Wests
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-13

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Prospectus Triple Play: Montreal Expos, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-24

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Internet Baseball Awards
by
Greg Spira

10-21

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Prospectus Triple Play: Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres
by
Baseball Prospectus

08-18

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Prospectus Today: DiSar Awards Update
by
Joe Sheehan

05-07

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Lies, Damned Lies: Binomial Distribution (or What the Heck is Up with Miguel Tejada and Alex Gonzalez?)
by
Nate Silver

04-09

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Pedro on the Open Market
by
Nate Silver

01-23

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Prospectus Feature: Breaking Out
by
Nate Silver

08-02

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Transaction Analysis: July 30-31, 2002
by
Christina Kahrl

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August 7, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City

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Rany Jazayerli

Dr. Jazayerli dissects the early makings of the game's best team--your 2006 Detroit Tigers.

Which is what makes the delirious success of the 2006 Detroit Tigers so fascinating. Winning teams are not put together overnight. Even teams that suddenly rise up from years of mediocrity to create a dynasty had a foundation of mediocrity to build upon. The New England Patriots were not a good team before they won three Super Bowls in four years, but they weren't a bad team either--they had gone 43-37 over the previous five seasons.

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June 29, 2006 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Variations on a Monetary Theme

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Dan Fox

Does an evenly balanced payroll put you at the front of the pack? Does it have anything to do with postseason success? Dan takes a look.

As this article goes to press, your humble author will be enjoying his first Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) convention being held in Seattle. In next week's column I hope to include a full report on some of the more interesting quantitative research presentations, along with a few general takes on the convention itself. I'll also be blogging from the Emerald City, so you'll be able to get a peek at the goings on.

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March 27, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: How Do Teams Draft?

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Kevin Goldstein

Kevin takes a closer look at major-league draft habits, to see what we can learn about risk and strategy.

"They're Moneyballers."

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October 25, 2005 12:00 am

Call it a Comeback

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Ben Murphy

Jason Giambi and Ken Griffey Jr. won the Comeback Player of the Year Award in their leagues as voted by the fans. Is there a more objective way of handing out the award?

This bounceback comes in three steps: the first peak, the valley and the second peak. In order for a player to qualify for our 2005 Objective Rebound Award (or ORA, because we love acronyms and we're hoping that the winner has that special something about him), the second peak should come in 2005. For the initial run, we're only going to consider players whose first peak came in 2003 and valley came in 2004. Later, we'll open it up to look at larger windows, up to five years from peak to peak. Although the subjective Comeback Awards are given out by league, we'll make no such distinction here, to avoid having to split playing time across leagues.

Overall, the level of the rebound is measured by the distance dropped plus the distance gained back, or (Peak 1 VORP - Valley VORP) + (Peak 2 VORP - Valley VORP). Although this method would leave us open to having some rebounds that appeared large because of one large peak on either end, there are so many seasons in question that the highest rebounds end up having large peaks on each end. Once we start to limit the sample sizes down to three consecutive years ending in 2005, you get some interesting "rebounds." Although we could place limits on these, it would take arbitrary cut-offs, and since it's an inexact science and simply a toy at this point, we can eliminate these by sight as they come up.

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September 5, 2005 12:00 am

Swinging for the Fences

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Will Carroll and Mike Carminati

Will Carroll and Mike Carminati wonder if swinging and missing is that big of a deal, and their findings may surprise you.

Just as an out-of-the-blue bolt of plate discipline presaged Sosa's assent, his decline might have been predicted by his tendency to swing and miss that haunted him even in his stellar 1999 season. Sosa swung at and missed 475 pitches in his record-setting 1999 campaign. This is the highest total for any major-league batter over the last five seasons and isn't the "swing and a miss!" call of the announcer the cruelest fate in baseball? But what does it mean in the greater scheme?

Does having a tendency to swing and miss more than most impair a batter's productivity as we have been told since Little League? Do batters with better batting eyes tend to be more productive than the average batter? Is it better to be patient at the plate or go for the first pitch you can hit? Does this data tell us anything new and could that be used to help build a better team or find successful players?

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May 9, 2005 12:00 am

Fantasy Focus: Keeping Your Cool with Cold Players

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Erik Siegrist

Should you panic if your stud players have suffered through a terrible April? Erik Siegrist has the answer.

Is it true though? Is a slow start really just a statistical blip which will sort itself out over the next five months? It's never a bad idea to challenge conventional wisdom, and every self-respecting Baseball Prospectus writer needs only the feeblest of excuses to start playing around with numbers. So let's test the hypothesis that production comes in fits and spurts, not steadily over the course of the season, and see if there's anything that can be learned in the process.

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March 28, 2005 12:00 am

2005--Setting the Stage

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Rany Jazayerli

Five players who could follow in the footsteps of 2004's biggest surprises.

As Bill James wrote 20 years ago--I'm obligated by contract to quote James in at least one-third of my articles--"A chart of numbers that would put an actuary to sleep can be made to dance if you put it on one side of a card and Bombo Rivera's picture on the other."

We recognize the tale that the numbers tell because while the specific numbers may be unique from player to player, the patterns tend to become recognizable. We look at Miguel Cabrera's two rows of numbers and hear in our minds the echoes of numbers we've seen before next to names like Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson. A stroll down Randy Johnson's lines conjures memories of other pitchers who found greatness after taming their wild heat, from Nolan Ryan to Sandy Koufax.

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It's prospect time, and each of these teams has strong candidates for BP's Top 50 Prospects list.

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It's the hot corner edition of Triple Play, with each of these teams facing the question of who plays there in 2005.

Read the full article...

The Astros make a big move in the front office, the Cards think about making a big move for their rotation, and the Rangers finally rid themselves of their big move from the winter of 2000.

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The Angels spent lots of money on their rotation this offseason, but was it worth it? Kerry Wood is having a fantastic spring, with improved control. The Tigers have spent the past few weeks upgrading their bullpen in a search for 65 wins. A number of Expos are taking trips to ''club med.'' The Giants have failed to upgrade their offense, while the Dodgers have made small strides. And the Blue Jays traded Jayson Werth, but perhaps for good reason.

  • But they spent so much money (Part II)... Last time, we looked how Arte Moreno's money isn't going to buy a whole lot of runs. Apparently, Moreno's money won't save a lot of runs either. The Angels spent $66.75 millio to sign Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar, who are projected to post EQERAs in the 4.00s and be worth just a few wins above replacement, apiece. The Halos' starting staff needs to beat PECOTA's projection if the club is to be playoff bound.
  • Read the full article...

    The Expos need to find a replacement for Tony Armas. The Giants' rotation may be in trouble. The Blue Jays should expect improvement from Josh Phelps and Eric Hinske. These and other news and notes in today's Prospectus Triple Play.

  • Call to Arm(a)s: One of the major questions at camp is whether the Expos' pitching staff can recapture the form and productivity it displayed in 2003. Right-hander Tony Armas Jr. was recently thought to be on the mend, and the Expos were optimistic that he'll begin the 2004 campaign in the rotation. But that was before word came in just before press time that Armas was suffering from tightness in his right deltoid, and is now back on le shelf. This after missing most of 2003 with a shoulder injury and sustaining a biceps injury early in camp.
  • Read the full article...

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