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Articles Tagged 2003 

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02-06

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: Beware of Falling Payrolls
by
Jay Jaffe

06-23

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1

Manufactured Runs: Batted Balls
by
Colin Wyers

02-09

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139

Prospectus Today: Stupid Media Tricks
by
Joe Sheehan

03-21

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Joba and the MISERs
by
Jay Jaffe

01-31

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Schrodinger's Bat: Back to the Drawing Board
by
Dan Fox

10-12

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Prospectus Matchups: Letís Get Loaded and See What Happens
by
Jim Baker

09-20

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Schrodinger's Bat: Taking Advantage
by
Dan Fox

08-28

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Prospectus Toolbox: Non-Contact Part V
by
Derek Jacques

01-02

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The Ledger Domain: The Fourth Amendment, the MLBPA and the BALCO Investigation
by
Maury Brown

12-08

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What the Numbers Say
by
Clay Davenport

09-14

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Schrodinger's Bat: The Whole, the Sum, and the Parts
by
Dan Fox

08-17

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Schrodinger's Bat: Using The House Advantage
by
Dan Fox

08-07

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Doctoring The Numbers: Building the Best in Motor City
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-29

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Schrodinger's Bat: Variations on a Monetary Theme
by
Dan Fox

03-27

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Future Shock: How Do Teams Draft?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-25

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0

Call it a Comeback
by
Ben Murphy

09-05

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Swinging for the Fences
by
Will Carroll and Mike Carminati

05-09

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Fantasy Focus: Keeping Your Cool with Cold Players
by
Erik Siegrist

03-28

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0

2005--Setting the Stage
by
Rany Jazayerli

01-17

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Prospectus Triple Play: Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

12-10

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

12-08

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Prospectus Triple Play: Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-02

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Montreal Expos, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-19

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Prospectus Triple Play: Montreal Expos, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-18

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-17

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Prospectus Triple Play: Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-11

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Prospectus Triple Play: Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-24

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Prospectus Triple Play: Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part III
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-05

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0

Winter Leagues, Redux
by
Clay Davenport

01-27

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Winter and Fall League Translations
by
Clay Davenport

01-26

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A Study in (Near) Perfection
by
Blake Kirkman

01-16

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Transaction Analysis: The Wests
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-13

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Montreal Expos, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-24

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0

Internet Baseball Awards
by
Greg Spira

10-21

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres
by
Baseball Prospectus

08-18

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0

Prospectus Today: DiSar Awards Update
by
Joe Sheehan

05-07

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Binomial Distribution (or What the Heck is Up with Miguel Tejada and Alex Gonzalez?)
by
Nate Silver

04-09

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0

Pedro on the Open Market
by
Nate Silver

01-23

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Prospectus Feature: Breaking Out
by
Nate Silver

08-02

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Transaction Analysis: July 30-31, 2002
by
Christina Kahrl

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February 6, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Beware of Falling Payrolls

18

Jay Jaffe

Does history give any clues as to how the Mets will perform with a lower payroll?

Late last month, ESPN New York's Adam Rubin reported that the Mets are facing the largest one-year payroll cut in major-league history, at least in terms of total dollars. With owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz deprived of the profits they derived from decades of investing with Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff, and struggling to find minority partners willing to provide a quick infusion of capital, the team is hemorrhaging money and facing a growing mountain of debt. According to general manager Sandy Alderson, the Mets lost $70 million last year, and made no real attempt to retain pending free agents Carlos Beltran (who was traded in midseason) or Jose Reyes (who departed for the Marlins in December). Barring even one additional midlevel signing, they could become the first team to drop $50 million in salary from one Opening Day to the next.

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Park adjustments show than line-drive and fly-ball rates can be affected by the scorers.

Let’s talk about batted balls.

I’m sure we’re all familiar with the category labels that we use to describe batted balls—ground balls, line drives, fly balls, and popups. Precise definitions vary, but David Cortesi gives a succinct set of criteria:

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Shrieking over A-Rod revisits not just the question of PED use, it brings us back to the multitude of abuses related to the issue.

And so it continues. Per Selena Roberts and David Epstein of Sports Illustrated, Alex Rodriguez was one of 104 players to test positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003. In that year, every player in Major League Baseball was tested, presumably anonymously, in an effort to learn the depth of the PED problem in baseball and weigh the need for a program that would mix random testing with penalties for use.

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March 21, 2008 12:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Joba and the MISERs

0

Jay Jaffe

Who's been really delivering high-leverage set-up work, and what does that mean for the Yankees prospect?

Wednesday's disclosure that the Yankees have decided to shift Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen to start the year didn't exactly qualify as news. Despite off-season denials of such a scenario, several pieces of data pointed to the inevitability of the decision, ranging from Chamberlain's success during last year's stretch run (pre-bug spray, at least), his age (22), his workload capacity based on the Rule of 30 (about 145 innings, based on the time he spent at four stops plus the postseason, though Will Carroll will tell you that only the major league innings count when it comes to parsing injury risk), and the current health status of Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy.

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January 31, 2008 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Back to the Drawing Board

0

Dan Fox

With a nod to the wisdom of crowds, Dan revisits Simple Fielding Runs and outfield defense.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
--Thomas A. Edison


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October 12, 2007 12:00 am

Prospectus Matchups: Letís Get Loaded and See What Happens

0

Jim Baker

Since the turn of this century, what have been the best and worst performances with the bases juiced?

Who are your three best friends in the world? I'll tell you who they are-the three guys on your favorite team who find themselves on base simultaneously. When the bags are juiced and the camera pans around the infield showing the three baserunners and the announcer says their names, don't you say to yourself, "Man, I love those guys!"

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September 20, 2007 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Taking Advantage

0

Dan Fox

Revisiting baserunning metrics to see how much credit, if any, should go to runners when a pitcher makes a mistake.

"We don't have a 40 home run guy anymore... We have to reduce mistakes, take advantage of every opportunity we get... We need to improve on moving runners over from second to third and our base running. There can be an eight- to 10-game swing in a season just from base running."
--Syd Thrift, in 2001, when he served as the Orioles Vice President of Baseball Operations


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Wrapping up the series on the fine art of pitching where the bat ain't, or putting the bat where the ball isn't.

So it's a long road we've traveled over the past month, looking at non-contact results on the diamond. Fortunately, like all good things, it must come to an end. We ended up last time looking at the leaders in swinging strikeout and looking strikeout rate since 1999 (which is as far back as we have comprehensive pitch-by-pitch data). A few things stood out while looking at those two lists:

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The effects of last week's appeals-court ruling could go beyond MLB.

No, what transpired last week has to do with test results from 2003 and a United States appeals court. It has to do with the BALCO investigation. It has to do with the MLBPA. It also has to do with the Fourth Amendment and the Bill of Rights. The events of last week could create case law that impacts far more than professional sports and the use of illegal performance-enhancing drugs. If this ruling is upheld, it has the capacity to determine what is permissible as reasonable search-and-seizure in the electronic domain.

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December 8, 2006 12:00 am

What the Numbers Say

0

Clay Davenport

Clay runs the numbers on all the players picked in yesterday's Rule 5 Draft, distinguishing the legitimate major-leaguers from the wannabes.

These are purely statistical impressions from the Rule 5 draft, as we sort out who's where and why. The players' statistics are translated with an eye towards future performance--not nearly as in-depth as PECOTA, but the system in play generally does well, and will help give us a sense as far as what's possible for these guys.

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September 14, 2006 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: The Whole, the Sum, and the Parts

0

Dan Fox

Dan backs up and provides an overview on what this summer's findings tell us about team-level baserunning, and what we can learn about baserunning in general.

When last we were together, we added up the various baserunning metrics we've been formulating all summer to come up with a total number of theoretical runs contributed on the bases for individual players. This included runs from advancing on ground and air outs, advancing on hits, and runs contributed from stolen base attempts (and pickoffs).

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Dan continues his series on baserunning by focusing on individual clubs. Do the Angels really create an advantage by being aggressive?

After taking a break last week to lament the Cubs swap of Greg Maddux for Cesar Izturis, I'm back to dissecting the running game this week. However, this time, rather than look at individuals we'll travel up the ladder to create a team perspective. We're taking this detour in our series because the most frequently asked questions by readers pertaining to the entire topic is probably how the calculation of Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR) and Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR) applies to teams and whether we can learn anything about coaching or team philosophies as a result.

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