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Articles Tagged 2002 

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12-14

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13

Fantasy Beat: Jeremy Hellickson and Defying Regression
by
Jason Collette

09-20

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14

The BP Broadside: Oh, To Live on Closer Mountain
by
Steven Goldman

01-21

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66

Squawking Baseball: The Best and Worst GMs of the Aughties
by
Shawn Hoffman

06-14

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22

Prospectus Idol Entry: Vladimir Guerrero
by
Matthew Knight

01-20

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11

Over There, Over There
by
Clay Davenport

03-21

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Joba and the MISERs
by
Jay Jaffe

03-04

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Prospectus Toolbox: Is Moneyball Dead?
by
Derek Jacques

10-12

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Prospectus Matchups: Lets Get Loaded and See What Happens
by
Jim Baker

09-20

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Schrodinger's Bat: Taking Advantage
by
Dan Fox

08-28

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Prospectus Toolbox: Non-Contact Part V
by
Derek Jacques

05-31

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Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors, NL East
by
Bryan Smith

03-06

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Fantasy Focus: Deciphering BABIP
by
Alex Carnevale

01-25

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Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-14

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Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

09-14

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Schrodinger's Bat: The Whole, the Sum, and the Parts
by
Dan Fox

08-17

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Schrodinger's Bat: Using The House Advantage
by
Dan Fox

06-02

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Future Shock: NL Draft Preview
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-25

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Call it a Comeback
by
Ben Murphy

09-05

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Swinging for the Fences
by
Will Carroll and Mike Carminati

05-09

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Fantasy Focus: Keeping Your Cool with Cold Players
by
Erik Siegrist

12-10

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Prospectus Triple Play: Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
by
Baseball Prospectus

12-08

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Prospectus Triple Play: Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-23

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Assessing Productive Outs
by
Anthony Passaretti

03-18

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Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-27

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Winter and Fall League Translations
by
Clay Davenport

07-24

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Prospectus Triple Play: Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-11

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Prospectus Today: First Half Disappointments
by
Joe Sheehan

05-15

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Prospectus Triple Play: Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies
by
Baseball Prospectus

05-13

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Prospectus Triple Play: Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-03

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The Man with the Golden Gun
by
Michael Wolverton

11-14

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The Daily Prospectus: Things To Do in the Off-Season When You're Bored
by
Derek Zumsteg

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January 25, 2007 12:00 am

Player Profile

0

Marc Normandin

A slugging scion or an injury-prone first baseman on the wrong side of 30? Marc investigates.

Derrek Leon Lee, the nephew of former major leaguer Leron Lee, was drafted fourteenth overall by the San Diego Padres all the way back in 1993 at the age of 17. (On the random side of things, Derrek's father is Leon Lee, the scout who actually discovered Hee-Seop Choi. Choi and Lee were traded for each other prior to the 2004 season.) Lee had received a full scholarship to the University of North Carolina to play basketball, but instead chose to head straight to the minor leagues and try his luck at baseball, signing with the Padres and heading to the Arizona Padres for his professional debut:

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October 14, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?

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Kevin Goldstein

Even Alexis Gomez came from somewhere (Kansas City). Kevin tells us how the Tigers and A's acquired the rest of their postseason difference-makers.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160846402_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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September 14, 2006 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: The Whole, the Sum, and the Parts

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Dan Fox

Dan backs up and provides an overview on what this summer's findings tell us about team-level baserunning, and what we can learn about baserunning in general.

When last we were together, we added up the various baserunning metrics we've been formulating all summer to come up with a total number of theoretical runs contributed on the bases for individual players. This included runs from advancing on ground and air outs, advancing on hits, and runs contributed from stolen base attempts (and pickoffs).

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Dan continues his series on baserunning by focusing on individual clubs. Do the Angels really create an advantage by being aggressive?

After taking a break last week to lament the Cubs swap of Greg Maddux for Cesar Izturis, I'm back to dissecting the running game this week. However, this time, rather than look at individuals we'll travel up the ladder to create a team perspective. We're taking this detour in our series because the most frequently asked questions by readers pertaining to the entire topic is probably how the calculation of Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR) and Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR) applies to teams and whether we can learn anything about coaching or team philosophies as a result.

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June 2, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: NL Draft Preview

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Kevin Goldstein

Kevin follows up yesterday's AL Draft Preview with a look at how the senior circuit should approach draft day.

Arizona Diamondbacks

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October 25, 2005 12:00 am

Call it a Comeback

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Ben Murphy

Jason Giambi and Ken Griffey Jr. won the Comeback Player of the Year Award in their leagues as voted by the fans. Is there a more objective way of handing out the award?

This bounceback comes in three steps: the first peak, the valley and the second peak. In order for a player to qualify for our 2005 Objective Rebound Award (or ORA, because we love acronyms and we're hoping that the winner has that special something about him), the second peak should come in 2005. For the initial run, we're only going to consider players whose first peak came in 2003 and valley came in 2004. Later, we'll open it up to look at larger windows, up to five years from peak to peak. Although the subjective Comeback Awards are given out by league, we'll make no such distinction here, to avoid having to split playing time across leagues.

Overall, the level of the rebound is measured by the distance dropped plus the distance gained back, or (Peak 1 VORP - Valley VORP) + (Peak 2 VORP - Valley VORP). Although this method would leave us open to having some rebounds that appeared large because of one large peak on either end, there are so many seasons in question that the highest rebounds end up having large peaks on each end. Once we start to limit the sample sizes down to three consecutive years ending in 2005, you get some interesting "rebounds." Although we could place limits on these, it would take arbitrary cut-offs, and since it's an inexact science and simply a toy at this point, we can eliminate these by sight as they come up.

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September 5, 2005 12:00 am

Swinging for the Fences

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Will Carroll and Mike Carminati

Will Carroll and Mike Carminati wonder if swinging and missing is that big of a deal, and their findings may surprise you.

Just as an out-of-the-blue bolt of plate discipline presaged Sosa's assent, his decline might have been predicted by his tendency to swing and miss that haunted him even in his stellar 1999 season. Sosa swung at and missed 475 pitches in his record-setting 1999 campaign. This is the highest total for any major-league batter over the last five seasons and isn't the "swing and a miss!" call of the announcer the cruelest fate in baseball? But what does it mean in the greater scheme?

Does having a tendency to swing and miss more than most impair a batter's productivity as we have been told since Little League? Do batters with better batting eyes tend to be more productive than the average batter? Is it better to be patient at the plate or go for the first pitch you can hit? Does this data tell us anything new and could that be used to help build a better team or find successful players?

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May 9, 2005 12:00 am

Fantasy Focus: Keeping Your Cool with Cold Players

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Erik Siegrist

Should you panic if your stud players have suffered through a terrible April? Erik Siegrist has the answer.

Is it true though? Is a slow start really just a statistical blip which will sort itself out over the next five months? It's never a bad idea to challenge conventional wisdom, and every self-respecting Baseball Prospectus writer needs only the feeblest of excuses to start playing around with numbers. So let's test the hypothesis that production comes in fits and spurts, not steadily over the course of the season, and see if there's anything that can be learned in the process.

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It's the hot corner edition of Triple Play, with each of these teams facing the question of who plays there in 2005.

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The Astros make a big move in the front office, the Cards think about making a big move for their rotation, and the Rangers finally rid themselves of their big move from the winter of 2000.

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November 23, 2004 12:00 am

Assessing Productive Outs

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Anthony Passaretti

Productive outs are a small part of offense that, at the extremes, can be worth a win a season. Making them, however, does not appear to be a repeatable skill for players.

This past April, ESPN.com's Buster Olney introduced a new statistic, Productive Out Percentage, to the baseball public. Working with the Elias Sports Bureau, Olney attempted to create a metric that would support the idea that productive outs were a key element in winning baseball. While the sabermetric community swiftly debunked Olney's creation as flawed--there's no relationship between the quality of a team's offense and its tendency to make productive outs--one question remained unanswered: how valuable are productive outs relative to other offensive events?

Productive outs, such as ground balls that advance runners, have a small benefit relative to outs that do not, such as strikeouts and pop-ups. Certainly, moving a runner over is preferable to not doing so, and over the course of 162 games, occasional bases gained can add up. What they add up to has never been quantified, but thanks to the new widespread availability of play-by-play data, however, we now have the opportunity to do so.

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Are the Angels the favorites in the AL West, according to PECOTA? How hard did Dusty work Cub starters in '03? And do the Tigers have a better option than playing Alex Sanchez every day? All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.

  • If we could only get that "Ready to Rumble" guy to read this...: Without further ado, it is our great pleasure to introduce the spawn of big, bad projection system PECOTA and the brand new BP depth charts: THE PROJECTED AL WEST STANDINGS!
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