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Articles Tagged 1986 

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06-06

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5

Wezen-Ball: Rookie Excitement
by
Larry Granillo

02-17

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6

The BP Broadside: The Kid's Biggest Moment
by
Steven Goldman

01-19

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

11-30

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13

The Lineup Card: BP Holiday Gift Guide
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-08

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3

Prospectus Hit and Run: I Saw 'em When, Part 2
by
Jay Jaffe

02-04

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20

Prospectus Hit and Run: Dandy Andy Bows Out
by
Jay Jaffe

09-16

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23

Overthinking It: Looking for the Iconic Replacement Player
by
Ben Lindbergh

08-20

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16

Seidnotes: What Did Brown Do for You?
by
Eric Seidman

08-19

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17

Changing Speeds: The Golden Generation
by
Ken Funck

08-14

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6

You Can Blog It Up: The Shockingly Non-Bunty Gene Mauch All-Stars
by
Steven Goldman

12-31

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: Hall of Fame Cases for Outfielders
by
Jay Jaffe

12-18

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5

Checking the Numbers: Swinging Role Reversals
by
Eric Seidman

01-12

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

04-13

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

04-10

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Defense and Pitch Classification
by
Dan Fox

12-20

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0

The Class of 2008
by
Jay Jaffe

08-30

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Tilting the Playing Field
by
Dan Fox

03-29

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: The Price of Contentment
by
Dan Fox

03-09

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0

Baseball Between the Numbers
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-19

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Running the Odds
by
Nate Silver

05-05

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0

You Could Look It Up: Infinity Edition #3
by
Steven Goldman

05-27

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Southpaw Stories, Part I
by
Nate Silver

01-06

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0

The Class of 2004
by
Jay Jaffe

09-17

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0

Under The Knife: Reaching Back
by
Will Carroll

04-24

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0

The Jack Morris Project
by
Joe Sheehan

04-16

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0

Testing the Nexus
by
Lee Sinins and Will Carroll

03-19

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0

Prospectus Today: The Hinske and Wells Signings
by
Joe Sheehan

08-20

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0

Greatest Living Pitcher
by
Keith Woolner and Jonah Keri

04-19

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0

Transaction Analysis: April 12-17
by
Christina Kahrl

01-11

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0

Cooperstown’s Newest Denizens
by
Clay Davenport

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April 24, 2003 12:00 am

The Jack Morris Project

0

Joe Sheehan

Joe Sheehan looks back at Morris to see if he really could pitch to the score.

[Note: The following article was originally published as Issues 41 and 42 of The Joe Sheehan Newsletter. Given the attention recently paid to Jack Morris in a recent Sports Illustrated piece, we are reprinting this article, with Joe's permission, to address some of the questions pertaining to Morris' career and his Hall of Fame worthiness.]

This whole thing started at the winter meetings. I ran into a newsletter reader who wanted to talk to me about Jack Morris. See, I'd written this in my evaluation of Hall of Fame candidates:

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April 16, 2003 12:00 am

Testing the Nexus

0

Lee Sinins and Will Carroll

One of the glaring weaknesses in the injury analysis game is the lack of data. As the injury database is built and populated, we are left with spotty research and anecdotal knowledge, especially when it comes to the crossroads of sports medicine and pitcher workloads. Adding to the problem is the lack of data for both minor league and college pitching. Since pitching is pitching, opponents of workload limitations often bring this up. In one of the first systematic studies of early pitching workload, Lee Sinins, creator of the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, studied 135 pitchers who threw 175 innings or more before the age of 22.

In one of the first systematic studies of early pitching workload, Lee Sinins, creator of the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, studied 135 pitchers who threw 175 innings or more before the age of 22. Age 22 is equivalent to the age-point found in Nate Silver's study on pitcher injury and age--the Injury Nexus--but was selected by Lee prior to the publication of Nate's study. Lee selected the pitchers from The Sporting News 1997 Baseball Register, giving us a distant enough perspective on many of the pitchers and allowing objective analysis on the possible effects of heavy workloads at such a young age. Unfortunately, innings thrown in winter leagues or in spring training could not be counted in this study as the data were not available. Innings were not adjusted for level and the totals are a sum for all levels in a season.

There were a few basic theories being tested in this study. First, the injury nexus would be tested. Despite the strong correlations between age and injury found by Nate Silver, real world numbers should match up closely. Second, while somewhat arbitrary, the 175-inning threshold seems to be a point where fatigue sets in for almost all pitchers. Young pitchers usually have not reached this threshold in their careers and the first test of this level often results in injury, massive failure, or a survivor effect.

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Monday, the Blue Jays announced that they'd signed both Eric Hinske and Vernon Wells to five-year deals in the neighborhood of $15 million. The deals take both players through their arbitration seasons, while not buying out any years of free agency. More importantly, the deals tie each player to the Jays through their probable peak; Hinske is under contract through age 29, Wells through age 28. My first reaction to the deals was positive. Hinske should be a good player through the life of the deal, although he lacks the potential of, say, Eric Chavez or Hank Blalock. Hinske's defense improved enough during last season to scotch the idea of moving him off of third base, which leaves just his performance against left-handers (.202/.293/.339) as a major flaw in his game. Wells has a higher upside and considerably more defensive value than Hinske does, although his lousy OBP means that he hasn't been as good a player to date.

My first reaction to the deals was positive. Hinske should be a good player through the life of the deal, although he lacks the potential of, say, Eric Chavez or Hank Blalock. Hinske's defense improved enough during last season to scotch the idea of moving him off of third base, which leaves just his performance against left-handers (.202/.293/.339) as a major flaw in his game. Wells has a higher upside and considerably more defensive value than Hinske does, although his lousy OBP means that he hasn't been as good a player to date.

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No matter how much the numbers may suggest otherwise, a fan growing up in the 60s may never be persuaded that Barry Bonds deserves to be ranked alongside Hank Aaron. Likewise, a fan growing up in the 90s may never fully grasp the greatness of Stan Musial.

But bringing Aaron and Bonds fans together is child's play compared to settling pitcher debates.

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If you missed the last Transaction Analysis, you can find it here.

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Carlton Fisk

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