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06-06

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5

Wezen-Ball: Rookie Excitement
by
Larry Granillo

02-17

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6

The BP Broadside: The Kid's Biggest Moment
by
Steven Goldman

01-19

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

11-30

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13

The Lineup Card: BP Holiday Gift Guide
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-08

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3

Prospectus Hit and Run: I Saw 'em When, Part 2
by
Jay Jaffe

02-04

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20

Prospectus Hit and Run: Dandy Andy Bows Out
by
Jay Jaffe

09-16

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23

Overthinking It: Looking for the Iconic Replacement Player
by
Ben Lindbergh

08-20

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16

Seidnotes: What Did Brown Do for You?
by
Eric Seidman

08-19

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17

Changing Speeds: The Golden Generation
by
Ken Funck

08-14

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6

You Can Blog It Up: The Shockingly Non-Bunty Gene Mauch All-Stars
by
Steven Goldman

12-31

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: Hall of Fame Cases for Outfielders
by
Jay Jaffe

12-18

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5

Checking the Numbers: Swinging Role Reversals
by
Eric Seidman

01-12

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

04-13

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams
by
David Laurila

04-10

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Defense and Pitch Classification
by
Dan Fox

12-20

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0

The Class of 2008
by
Jay Jaffe

08-30

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Tilting the Playing Field
by
Dan Fox

03-29

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: The Price of Contentment
by
Dan Fox

03-09

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0

Baseball Between the Numbers
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-19

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Running the Odds
by
Nate Silver

05-05

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0

You Could Look It Up: Infinity Edition #3
by
Steven Goldman

05-27

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Southpaw Stories, Part I
by
Nate Silver

01-06

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0

The Class of 2004
by
Jay Jaffe

09-17

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0

Under The Knife: Reaching Back
by
Will Carroll

04-24

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0

The Jack Morris Project
by
Joe Sheehan

04-16

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0

Testing the Nexus
by
Lee Sinins and Will Carroll

03-19

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0

Prospectus Today: The Hinske and Wells Signings
by
Joe Sheehan

08-20

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0

Greatest Living Pitcher
by
Keith Woolner and Jonah Keri

04-19

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0

Transaction Analysis: April 12-17
by
Christina Kahrl

01-11

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0

Cooperstown’s Newest Denizens
by
Clay Davenport

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January 12, 2009 10:23 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Pitchers

10

Jay Jaffe

Wrapping up the JAWS rankings for this year's Hall of Fame eligibles.

Finally, we come to the pitchers on the BBWAA ballot for the Hall of Fame, a mercifully short list this time around, featuring four holdovers and three newcomers. Among this group, Bert Blyleven is the standout, and while he's certainly no lock to gain election this time around, he jumped to nearly 62 percent in last year's vote, suggesting that the work done by statheads here and elsewhere to boost his candidacy is finally getting through to the voters.

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April 13, 2008 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Roger Abrams

0

David Laurila

Talking arbitration with long-time baseball arbitrator, professor, and author, Roger Abrams.

The Richardson Professor of Law at Northeastern University School of Law, Roger Abrams has been a baseball salary arbitrator since 1986. A former scholar-in-residence at the Baseball Hall of Fame, Abrams is the author of four books, including Legal Bases: Baseball and the Law, and Money Pitch: Baseball Free Agency and Salary Arbitration. David talked to Abrams about the baseball arbitration process, including who is eligible, what can and cannot be argued at a hearing, and why arbitration works.

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A new season brings a new batch of PITCHf/x data from which to learn.

"With me, being a hard thrower ... no matter what, they're defending that heater, man. So the more confidence I have to throw that [changeup] in any count, I'm going to throw it. I'm just going to. I don't care anymore. It's going to help me and I realize that."
--A.J. Burnett on his pitch selection. PITCHf/x has confidence in his fastball as well.

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December 20, 2007 12:00 am

The Class of 2008

0

Jay Jaffe

JAWS gapes for the Hall candidacy of Tim Raines, but finds the other eligible outfielders not quite so tasty.

Picking up where we left off last week, we turn JAWS loose on the outfielders of the 2008 ballot, a mercifully smaller crop than last year's 13 outfielders, but one about which we have much to discuss.

Left Fielders

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August 30, 2007 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: Tilting the Playing Field

0

Dan Fox

Returning to a subject from this past winter, Dan digs in to discuss the all-time greats.

"It is the best game because the players look like us. They are not seven feet tall, they don’t weigh 350 pounds, and they don’t bench-press 650. We can relate to them. We can see them—they’re not obscured by some hideous face mask, and they don’t play behind a wall of Plexiglas—we can touch them and we can feel them. I see Greg Maddux with his shirt off, with his concave chest and no discernible muscles, and I marvel: This is one of the six greatest pitchers in the history of the game? I see Tony Gwynn with his shirt off and I see a short, fat guy with the smallest hands I've ever seen on an athlete, and I wonder: 'This is the best hitter since Ted Williams?'...They are regular guys, at least most of them, who just happen to be really, really good at something that everyone else is not."
--Tim Kurkjian, from chapter one of Is This a Great Game, or What?: From A-Rod's Heart to Zim's Head--My 25 Years in Baseball


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March 29, 2007 12:00 am

Schrodinger's Bat: The Price of Contentment

0

Dan Fox

Dan looks at double steals from every conceivable angle, inspired by a wacky quadruple steal from the pages of Retrosheet.

"He told me the rule book doesn't specifically cover that situation. He said you've seen one of the most unusual plays in baseball."
--Official scorer Randy Minkoff, recounting his conversation with Seymour Siwoff about the Cardinals "quadruple steal" in August of 1985, as recorded by Retrosheet


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With steroids once again in the news, we take a look at an excerpt from our new book, Baseball Between the Numbers.

--

In December of 2004, with the frenzy over the BALCO investigation at its peak, Alan Schwarz of the New York Times asked Baseball Prospectus to assist him with an analysis of Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi. The idea was to use BP's projection system, Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), to compare how Bonds and Giambi might have been expected to perform based on their statistics up through 2000, against what actually happened to their careers from that point forward.

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October 19, 2005 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Running the Odds

0

Nate Silver

Where does Monday's NLCS Game Five rank among recent postseason comebacks?

Actually, that was my second reaction. My first reaction was something that would have made Andy Pettitte blush. And my third reaction, after a few moments of reflection about Donnie Moore, Grady Little, and Steve Bartman, was that we might have just witnessed the most unlikely comeback in postseason history.

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May 5, 2005 12:00 am

You Could Look It Up: Infinity Edition #3

0

Steven Goldman

Steven Goldman continues The Infinity Edition by looking at Jeff King, Kevin Mitchell, Graig Nettles, and others.

JEFF KING
3B/1B PITTSBURGH PIRATES 1989-1996, KANSAS CITY ROYALS 1997-1999

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May 27, 2004 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Southpaw Stories, Part I

0

Nate Silver

Two months ago, the Oakland Athletics signed Eric Chavez to a six-year, $66 million contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2010. Despite some head-scratching from the public, there are good reasons behind why Billy Beane campaigned to do for Chavez what he hadn't done for former MVP shortstop Miguel Tejada. Unlike Tejada, Chavez is a player whose skills, like his fine defense and his ever-improving plate discipline, are likely to be undervalued by the market. On top of which, Chavez has continued to demonstrate growth season after season, and PECOTA thinks that he's a very safe bet going forward. It is no secret, however, that Chavez has a tragic flaw: he can't hit left-handed pitching. From 2001-2003, Chavez managed a stellar line of .306/.375/.579 against right-handers, but a Mathenian .229/.278/.395 against southpaws. The A's, recognizing his defensive value and perhaps hoping that repetition would breed improvement, continued to start him anyway, in spite of a rotating array of viable platoon alternatives. This year, indeed, has brought about a turnaround--Chavez is crushing lefties so far on the season (.288/.373/.561), while performing well below his career averages against righties (.214/.358/.398). Whether there's any rationale for the change other than sample size, I'm not certain (I don't get to see the West Coast teams play as often as I'd like to). What is clear, however, is that if such a change becomes permanent--if Chavez learns how to hit left-handed pitching at the age of 26--it would be a relatively unprecedented development. In most cases, a platoon split for a left-handed hitter is something like a finger print or a dental record: it remains a readily identifiable and more or less unchanging part of his profile throughout the different stages of his playing life. A left-handed hitter with a big platoon split early in his career is, in all likelihood, going to have a big platoon split later in his career.

It is no secret, however, that Chavez has a tragic flaw: he can't hit left-handed pitching. From 2001-2003, Chavez managed a stellar line of .306/.375/.579 against right-handers, but a Mathenian .229/.278/.395 against southpaws. The A's, recognizing his defensive value and perhaps hoping that repetition would breed improvement, continued to start him anyway, in spite of a rotating array of viable platoon alternatives.

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January 6, 2004 12:00 am

The Class of 2004

0

Jay Jaffe

With the 2004 STATLG-L Hall of Fame balloting now in the books, and the results of the BBWAA voting slated to be released this afternoon, there are few topics more prominent in baseball fans' minds than "Which players will make it to Cooperstown in 2004?" And rightfully so. Enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame is the highest honor a former-player can receive, and most fans are protective of that: a fact that has spurned countless heated debates over the years--rational, objective, and otherwise. With that being said, I thought it would interesting to see what some of Baseball Prospectus' newly updated measures of player evaluation had to say on the topic. For the uninitiated, BP's Davenport Translated Player Cards measure a player's value above replacement level for offense, defense, and pitching while adjusting for context--park effects, level of offense, era, length of season, and in Clay's own words, "the distortions caused by not having to face your own team's defense." The Davenport Cards offer the most sophisticated statistical summaries available; if you can adjust for it, it's in there. The basic currencies of the Davenport system, whether it's offense, defense, or pitching, are runs and wins, more specifically, runs above replacement level and wins above replacement level.

With the 2004 STATLG-L Hall of Fame balloting now in the books, and the results of the BBWAA voting slated to be released this afternoon, few topics are more prominent in baseball fans' minds than "Which players will make it to Cooperstown in 2004?"

And rightfully so. Enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame is the highest honor a former-player can receive, and most fans are protective of that: a fact that has spurned countless heated debates over the years--rational, objective, and otherwise.

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September 17, 2003 12:00 am

Under The Knife: Reaching Back

0

Will Carroll

I'll get right into the heart of this because Mark Prior's 124 pitch performance tore me in two. As I've mentioned before, Prior tends to throw harder in later innings, and that held true last night as well, as he was reaching 96 mph in the 8th. For the first time, however, Prior lost velocity in the 9th, topping out at 93. Adding in the elbow drop, and you can imagine how I was hyperventilating and speaking to the TV in harsh tones. (Does it make even less sense to talk to the TV when you're TiVoing the game, and you're about a minute behind?) Prior may have had a birthday last week, but he's still in the heart of the injury nexus. Future owner Steve Stone rightfully pointed out in Tuesday's broadcast that Prior was in "unchartered" territory, nearing 200 innings pitched--and that the collision with Marcus Giles may have been, in the long run, the best thing for him. Prior, as well as teammates Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano--who is even younger than Prior--are all near the top of the PAP charts. Comments from Dusty Baker seem to indicate that he's more than willing to keep his young pitchers working down the stretch. While flags do fly forever, and the ineffectiveness of the Cubs' bullpen should factor into his decisions, Baker also needs to remember that his young pitchers' arms might hang limp--like the flags do on a windless summer day--if he keeps working them so hard.

Prior may have had a birthday last week, but he's still in the heart of the injury nexus. Future owner Steve Stone rightfully pointed out in Tuesday's broadcast that Prior was in "unchartered" territory, nearing 200 innings pitched--and that the collision with Marcus Giles may have been, in the long run, the best thing for him. Prior, as well as teammates Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano--who is even younger than Prior--are all near the top of the PAP charts. Comments from Dusty Baker seem to indicate that he's more than willing to keep his young pitchers working down the stretch. While flags do fly forever, and the ineffectiveness of the Cubs' bullpen should factor into his decisions, Baker also needs to remember that his young pitchers' arms might hang limp--like the flags do on a windless summer day--if he keeps working them so hard.

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