Last update: Tue May 13 07:46:00 2008 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timeswith some help from PECOTA
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections). And the ELO version of this report, based on an ELO rating scheme.
Generated Tue May 13 07:24:56 EDT 2008
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.5 92.3 85.7 76.2 65.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 24 17 .562 92.8 69.2 35.86887 25.40503 61.27391 Rays 22 16 .543 89.3 72.7 20.89680 21.94531 42.84211 Orioles 19 19 .407 67.7 94.3 .15451 .33238 .48689 Yankees 19 20 .599 93.8 68.2 41.86764 24.42871 66.29636 Blue Jays 18 22 .481 75.7 86.3 1.21218 2.47263 3.68480Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.5 86.4 79.7 73.7 66.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 20 17 .451 75.2 86.8 4.10631 1.40415 5.51045 Indians 19 19 .568 90.6 71.4 54.77373 6.25706 61.03079 White Sox 18 19 .475 76.8 85.2 5.71098 2.02088 7.73185 Royals 16 21 .444 71.0 91.0 1.63194 .55362 2.18557 Tigers 16 22 .562 87.0 75.0 33.77704 7.54403 41.32107Average wins by position in AL west: 91.4 82.8 74.9 66.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 23 16 .494 83.7 78.3 32.72101 3.67809 36.39910 Angels 23 17 .537 88.1 73.9 59.11877 2.97714 62.09591 Rangers 19 21 .451 73.3 88.7 5.18438 .64022 5.82460 Mariners 15 25 .463 70.8 91.2 2.97584 .34075 3.31659 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.3Average wins by position in NL East: 96.7 88.7 82.3 75.5 67.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Marlins 23 15 .438 75.9 86.1 3.09918 2.50788 5.60707 Phillies 21 18 .531 86.7 75.3 23.23357 14.03472 37.26828 Mets 19 17 .580 93.0 69.0 56.40335 12.34390 68.74725 Braves 19 18 .525 84.5 77.5 16.53956 11.15570 27.69526 Nationals 16 23 .444 70.5 91.5 .72434 .66044 1.38478Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.1 88.8 83.0 78.3 73.5 67.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 23 15 .562 94.3 67.7 63.06514 11.43017 74.49532 Cardinals 23 17 .463 78.9 83.1 4.69069 4.86531 9.55600 Astros 22 17 .444 76.4 85.6 3.13349 2.84952 5.98301 Brewers 19 19 .543 87.6 74.4 24.27942 16.75674 41.03616 Pirates 18 20 .451 73.6 88.4 1.65273 1.56686 3.21958 Reds 16 23 .494 77.0 85.0 3.17854 3.26364 6.44218Average wins by position in NL West: 93.6 85.6 79.0 72.6 65.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Diamondbacks 23 15 .531 89.7 72.3 54.19041 6.69365 60.88406 Dodgers 19 18 .537 86.0 76.0 32.96834 7.79156 40.75990 Giants 16 23 .438 69.2 92.8 1.27575 .30636 1.58210 Rockies 15 23 .506 78.2 83.8 8.81159 2.91858 11.73016 Padres 14 25 .481 72.8 89.2 2.75392 .85496 3.60888 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.2
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
At least, that's how it works in the regular version. For this, PECOTA adjusted version, the regression isn't done to the mean (.500), but rather to the PECOTA projection made at the beginning of the year (numbers which can be found here). The Yankees were projected to be a .580 team - and so the EWP described above will nudge their record towards .580, not .500. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.