Last update: Tue May 13 07:46:00 2008 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesusing ELO as the determining factor
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
Generated Tue May 13 08:12:38 EDT 2008
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.9 88.3 82.8 77.4 70.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 24 17 1547. 92.3 69.7 56.57903 14.01381 70.59284 Rays 22 16 1502. 82.8 79.2 13.23342 11.84667 25.08009 Orioles 19 19 1479. 75.4 86.6 3.47863 3.35590 6.83453 Yankees 19 20 1530. 85.3 76.7 20.46402 15.54640 36.01041 Blue Jays 18 22 1506. 78.8 83.2 6.24489 6.58175 12.82664Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.2 85.2 79.9 74.7 67.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 20 17 1511. 83.8 78.2 28.76339 6.83711 35.60050 Indians 19 19 1530. 86.8 75.2 44.11854 6.71535 50.83389 White Sox 18 19 1495. 78.7 83.3 12.47293 4.00487 16.47780 Royals 16 21 1472. 72.4 89.6 3.64933 1.19343 4.84276 Tigers 16 22 1501. 77.9 84.1 10.99581 3.33296 14.32877Average wins by position in AL west: 93.6 85.3 77.5 68.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 23 16 1522. 87.5 74.5 41.50689 10.99544 52.50233 Angels 23 17 1532. 88.5 73.5 47.90496 10.35900 58.26396 Rangers 19 21 1495. 77.5 84.5 8.16939 4.06452 12.23391 Mariners 15 25 1485. 71.6 90.4 2.41876 1.15280 3.57156 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.7Average wins by position in NL East: 94.1 87.6 82.5 77.2 69.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Marlins 23 15 1497. 84.3 77.7 23.13200 8.95712 32.08912 Phillies 21 18 1520. 86.4 75.6 31.87797 10.05362 41.93160 Mets 19 17 1507. 83.8 78.2 20.97249 8.96735 29.93985 Braves 19 18 1514. 84.1 77.9 22.31319 8.95675 31.26994 Nationals 16 23 1466. 71.8 90.2 1.70434 1.04919 2.75353Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.1 88.3 83.4 78.8 73.7 66.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 23 15 1519. 89.9 72.1 44.82132 12.47563 57.29695 Cardinals 23 17 1496. 84.1 77.9 17.82832 11.13279 28.96111 Astros 22 17 1505. 85.8 76.2 24.66551 12.12900 36.79451 Brewers 19 19 1485. 79.6 82.4 7.84345 5.94066 13.78411 Pirates 18 20 1468. 75.1 86.9 3.49381 2.49183 5.98564 Reds 16 23 1464. 71.7 90.3 1.34759 1.15067 2.49826Average wins by position in NL West: 93.0 84.5 78.4 72.7 65.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Diamondbacks 23 15 1521. 90.1 71.9 62.63423 5.16359 67.79782 Dodgers 19 18 1500. 82.4 79.6 21.68035 6.49703 28.17738 Giants 16 23 1461. 71.0 91.0 2.55494 .70116 3.25610 Rockies 15 23 1494. 77.6 84.4 9.45112 3.17131 12.62243 Padres 14 25 1479. 73.0 89.0 3.67935 1.16228 4.84164 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.1
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.In this version we use the team's ELO scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's ELO is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the ELO score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.