Last update: Fri Jul 3 07:31:00 2009 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesusing Elo as the determining factor
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
Generated Fri Jul 3 07:18:38 EDT 2009
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.3 92.9 87.7 81.0 68.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 48 30 1566. 97.3 64.7 64.81000 21.22387 86.03387 Yankees 45 33 1549. 91.0 71.0 19.57933 31.31107 50.89040 Rays 44 36 1550. 89.6 72.4 13.19500 27.13865 40.33365 Blue Jays 42 38 1521. 82.6 79.4 2.40658 7.06922 9.47580 Orioles 35 44 1465. 69.2 92.8 .00908 .04208 .05117Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.4 84.9 79.7 71.1 64.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 43 35 1508. 85.6 76.4 38.28375 2.07590 40.35965 White Sox 41 38 1520. 83.8 78.2 26.48858 1.90410 28.39268 Twins 41 39 1525. 85.0 77.0 34.69942 1.91992 36.61933 Royals 33 45 1460. 68.1 93.9 .23800 .01175 .24975 Indians 31 49 1474. 68.3 93.7 .29025 .00458 .29483Average wins by position in AL west: 92.2 84.8 78.4 69.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Angels 43 34 1542. 90.6 71.4 69.96225 2.41707 72.37932 Rangers 42 35 1510. 84.0 78.0 21.95092 3.35480 25.30572 Mariners 40 38 1488. 79.9 82.1 7.55525 1.49283 9.04808 Athletics 33 44 1474. 70.4 91.6 .53158 .03417 .56575 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.2Average wins by position in NL East: 90.0 84.9 80.7 75.5 54.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Marlins 41 39 1502. 83.8 78.2 28.65400 3.74257 32.39657 Phillies 39 37 1514. 85.4 76.6 39.23933 3.83998 43.07932 Mets 39 39 1499. 82.4 79.6 21.36317 3.31928 24.68245 Braves 38 40 1486. 79.4 82.6 10.74350 1.75240 12.49590 Nationals 22 54 1412. 54.9 107.1 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.2 86.7 83.5 80.4 76.9 71.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 43 38 1502. 84.4 77.6 23.33182 5.68525 29.01707 Brewers 42 37 1509. 86.2 75.8 34.17520 6.38155 40.55675 Reds 39 38 1484. 80.2 81.8 8.37578 3.19028 11.56607 Cubs 38 38 1514. 84.2 77.8 22.44682 5.75997 28.20678 Astros 38 39 1498. 80.9 81.1 10.30448 3.22357 13.52805 Pirates 36 43 1469. 74.5 87.5 1.36590 .53817 1.90407Average wins by position in NL West: 98.8 89.5 82.6 72.2 65.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 50 29 1542. 98.1 63.9 84.04142 10.28875 94.33016 Giants 42 36 1502. 85.1 76.9 6.28775 20.80165 27.08940 Rockies 41 37 1514. 87.3 74.7 9.62642 31.25117 40.87758 Padres 34 44 1444. 70.1 91.9 .03217 .19000 .22217 Diamondbacks 31 48 1457. 67.6 94.4 .01225 .03542 .04767 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.8
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.In this version we use the team's Elo scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's Elo is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the Elo score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.