Postseason Odds, ELO version

Last update: Tue Oct 20 05:16:00 2009 PT



Playing the rest of the season a million times

using Elo as the determining factor

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

Generated Mon Oct 5 10:45:48 EDT 2009


Average wins by position in AL East:  103.0 95.0 84.0 75.0 64.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees          103   59  1593.  103.0   59.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Red Sox           95   67  1563.   95.0   67.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Rays              84   78  1523.   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         75   87  1502.   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Orioles           64   98  1442.   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  87.0 86.0 79.0 65.0 65.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            86   76  1499.   86.4   76.6   41.61700     .00000   41.61700
Twins             86   76  1534.   86.6   76.4   58.38300     .00000   58.38300
White Sox         79   83  1502.   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Indians           65   97  1449.   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            65   97  1448.   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.0 87.0 85.0 75.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            97   65  1573.   97.0   65.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Rangers           87   75  1519.   87.0   75.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mariners          85   77  1502.   85.0   77.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Athletics         75   87  1503.   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  95.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.0 87.0 86.0 70.0 59.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Phillies          93   69  1510.   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Marlins           87   75  1519.   87.0   75.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Braves            86   76  1515.   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mets              70   92  1517.   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Nationals         59  103  1414.   59.0  103.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.0 83.0 80.0 78.0 74.0 62.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         91   71  1525.   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Cubs              83   78  1503.   83.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Brewers           80   82  1484.   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              78   84  1484.   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Astros            74   88  1458.   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           62   99  1408.   62.0   99.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.0 92.0 88.0 75.0 70.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           95   67  1537.   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Rockies           92   70  1532.   92.0   70.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Giants            88   74  1517.   88.0   74.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            75   87  1463.   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      70   92  1459.   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

In this version we use the team's Elo scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's Elo is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the Elo score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.

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