Postseason Odds, ELO version

Last update: Tue May 13 07:46:00 2008 PT



Playing the rest of the season a million times

using ELO as the determining factor

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

Generated Tue May 13 08:12:38 EDT 2008


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.9 88.3 82.8 77.4 70.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           24   17  1547.   92.3   69.7   56.57903   14.01381   70.59284
Rays              22   16  1502.   82.8   79.2   13.23342   11.84667   25.08009
Orioles           19   19  1479.   75.4   86.6    3.47863    3.35590    6.83453
Yankees           19   20  1530.   85.3   76.7   20.46402   15.54640   36.01041
Blue Jays         18   22  1506.   78.8   83.2    6.24489    6.58175   12.82664

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.2 85.2 79.9 74.7 67.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins             20   17  1511.   83.8   78.2   28.76339    6.83711   35.60050
Indians           19   19  1530.   86.8   75.2   44.11854    6.71535   50.83389
White Sox         18   19  1495.   78.7   83.3   12.47293    4.00487   16.47780
Royals            16   21  1472.   72.4   89.6    3.64933    1.19343    4.84276
Tigers            16   22  1501.   77.9   84.1   10.99581    3.33296   14.32877

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.6 85.3 77.5 68.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         23   16  1522.   87.5   74.5   41.50689   10.99544   52.50233
Angels            23   17  1532.   88.5   73.5   47.90496   10.35900   58.26396
Rangers           19   21  1495.   77.5   84.5    8.16939    4.06452   12.23391
Mariners          15   25  1485.   71.6   90.4    2.41876    1.15280    3.57156

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  90.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.1 87.6 82.5 77.2 69.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Marlins           23   15  1497.   84.3   77.7   23.13200    8.95712   32.08912
Phillies          21   18  1520.   86.4   75.6   31.87797   10.05362   41.93160
Mets              19   17  1507.   83.8   78.2   20.97249    8.96735   29.93985
Braves            19   18  1514.   84.1   77.9   22.31319    8.95675   31.26994
Nationals         16   23  1466.   71.8   90.2    1.70434    1.04919    2.75353

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.1 88.3 83.4 78.8 73.7 66.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              23   15  1519.   89.9   72.1   44.82132   12.47563   57.29695
Cardinals         23   17  1496.   84.1   77.9   17.82832   11.13279   28.96111
Astros            22   17  1505.   85.8   76.2   24.66551   12.12900   36.79451
Brewers           19   19  1485.   79.6   82.4    7.84345    5.94066   13.78411
Pirates           18   20  1468.   75.1   86.9    3.49381    2.49183    5.98564
Reds              16   23  1464.   71.7   90.3    1.34759    1.15067    2.49826

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.0 84.5 78.4 72.7 65.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Diamondbacks      23   15  1521.   90.1   71.9   62.63423    5.16359   67.79782
Dodgers           19   18  1500.   82.4   79.6   21.68035    6.49703   28.17738
Giants            16   23  1461.   71.0   91.0    2.55494     .70116    3.25610
Rockies           15   23  1494.   77.6   84.4    9.45112    3.17131   12.62243
Padres            14   25  1479.   73.0   89.0    3.67935    1.16228    4.84164

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  91.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

In this version we use the team's ELO scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's ELO is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the ELO score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.

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