Postseason Odds, ELO version

Last update: Fri Jul 3 07:31:00 2009 PT



Playing the rest of the season a million times

using Elo as the determining factor

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

Generated Fri Jul 3 07:18:38 EDT 2009


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.3 92.9 87.7 81.0 68.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           48   30  1566.   97.3   64.7   64.81000   21.22387   86.03387
Yankees           45   33  1549.   91.0   71.0   19.57933   31.31107   50.89040
Rays              44   36  1550.   89.6   72.4   13.19500   27.13865   40.33365
Blue Jays         42   38  1521.   82.6   79.4    2.40658    7.06922    9.47580
Orioles           35   44  1465.   69.2   92.8     .00908     .04208     .05117

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.4 84.9 79.7 71.1 64.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            43   35  1508.   85.6   76.4   38.28375    2.07590   40.35965
White Sox         41   38  1520.   83.8   78.2   26.48858    1.90410   28.39268
Twins             41   39  1525.   85.0   77.0   34.69942    1.91992   36.61933
Royals            33   45  1460.   68.1   93.9     .23800     .01175     .24975
Indians           31   49  1474.   68.3   93.7     .29025     .00458     .29483

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.2 84.8 78.4 69.4
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            43   34  1542.   90.6   71.4   69.96225    2.41707   72.37932
Rangers           42   35  1510.   84.0   78.0   21.95092    3.35480   25.30572
Mariners          40   38  1488.   79.9   82.1    7.55525    1.49283    9.04808
Athletics         33   44  1474.   70.4   91.6     .53158     .03417     .56575

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  93.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.0 84.9 80.7 75.5 54.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Marlins           41   39  1502.   83.8   78.2   28.65400    3.74257   32.39657
Phillies          39   37  1514.   85.4   76.6   39.23933    3.83998   43.07932
Mets              39   39  1499.   82.4   79.6   21.36317    3.31928   24.68245
Braves            38   40  1486.   79.4   82.6   10.74350    1.75240   12.49590
Nationals         22   54  1412.   54.9  107.1     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.2 86.7 83.5 80.4 76.9 71.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         43   38  1502.   84.4   77.6   23.33182    5.68525   29.01707
Brewers           42   37  1509.   86.2   75.8   34.17520    6.38155   40.55675
Reds              39   38  1484.   80.2   81.8    8.37578    3.19028   11.56607
Cubs              38   38  1514.   84.2   77.8   22.44682    5.75997   28.20678
Astros            38   39  1498.   80.9   81.1   10.30448    3.22357   13.52805
Pirates           36   43  1469.   74.5   87.5    1.36590     .53817    1.90407

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.8 89.5 82.6 72.2 65.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           50   29  1542.   98.1   63.9   84.04142   10.28875   94.33016
Giants            42   36  1502.   85.1   76.9    6.28775   20.80165   27.08940
Rockies           41   37  1514.   87.3   74.7    9.62642   31.25117   40.87758
Padres            34   44  1444.   70.1   91.9     .03217     .19000     .22217
Diamondbacks      31   48  1457.   67.6   94.4     .01225     .03542     .04767

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  90.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

In this version we use the team's Elo scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's Elo is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the Elo score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.

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