Last update: Tue Oct 20 05:16:00 2009 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesusing Elo as the determining factor
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
Generated Mon Oct 5 10:45:48 EDT 2009
Average wins by position in AL East: 103.0 95.0 84.0 75.0 64.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 103 59 1593. 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Red Sox 95 67 1563. 95.0 67.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Rays 84 78 1523. 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 75 87 1502. 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 64 98 1442. 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.0 86.0 79.0 65.0 65.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 86 76 1499. 86.4 76.6 41.61700 .00000 41.61700 Twins 86 76 1534. 86.6 76.4 58.38300 .00000 58.38300 White Sox 79 83 1502. 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Indians 65 97 1449. 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 65 97 1448. 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL west: 97.0 87.0 85.0 75.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Angels 97 65 1573. 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rangers 87 75 1519. 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 85 77 1502. 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 75 87 1503. 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 95.0Average wins by position in NL East: 93.0 87.0 86.0 70.0 59.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 93 69 1510. 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Marlins 87 75 1519. 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 86 76 1515. 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 70 92 1517. 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 59 103 1414. 59.0 103.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.0 83.0 80.0 78.0 74.0 62.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 91 71 1525. 91.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cubs 83 78 1503. 83.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 80 82 1484. 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 78 84 1484. 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 74 88 1458. 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 62 99 1408. 62.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL West: 95.0 92.0 88.0 75.0 70.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 95 67 1537. 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rockies 92 70 1532. 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Giants 88 74 1517. 88.0 74.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 75 87 1463. 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 70 92 1459. 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.0
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.In this version we use the team's Elo scores as their expected winning percentage. Within the simulation, each team's Elo is tracked and updated through all simulated games, which is used to predict the next game, and so on. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the Elo score calculated through the latest games played. Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.