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Why did the Tigers claim poverty, trade Granderson, and then give Damon roughly the same money that Granderson was making this year? Granderson seems to be better than Damon + Jackson, methinks.
I take it you've given up on Eddie Kunz?
Congrats. Personally, I think anyone who undergoes elective surgery and puts their eyesight in a modicum of danger is off their rocker, but I commend you for doing it.
The biggest improvement BP can make is giving the site a facelift, especially the chat rooms and search functions. I know it's been said that this is in the hopper, but since you asked, that's my answer.
Sadly, your restriction on non-Euro nations rules out the Most Serene Republic of San Marino.
I don't know how you would work it into the metrics, but it seems like a flaw that postseason success (or even appearances) gets zero consideration here. Also, while Phillips, Thrift and Bavasi were horrible, I have to think that any objective measure would say that Lamar and Littlefield are 1-2 in some order. They were disasters.
Would Scherzer be the clear #2 in the under 25 category?
According to Baseball Almanac, the Mets' attendance declined by 900,000 last year, probably a lot of which is because of the smaller capacity in the stadium and that the team was out of it by August. Still, a decline of about 30% in attendance means they would have had to made up the difference in seats, concessions, suites, etc., by an increase of 30% to break even, which seems likely, but I doubt the Mets were a cash cow last year because of the stadium. It's also fair to question what happens this year, given the lack of real decrease in ticket prices and the pessimism of the Flushing Faithful.
If I had a ballot and in 2011, Blyleven, Raines Alomar and Larkin got in, I would submit a blank ballot in 2012 because I don't think anyone else is HOF-worthy.
The Mets were in a catch-22; they couldn't really afford to do nothing because their roster isn't good enough to win in 2010 as constituted before the Bay signing, but there was nobody on the market that was franchise-altering. They either had to overpay for someone that would be helpful (Bay) or blow it up and trade someone like Reyes or Wright.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. There's two sides of the BP coin: the creation of stats, and the analysis of the stats and other information out there. I think I'm not alone that the first category, while fine and good, is not my particular cup of tea. I don't have the time or curiosity to see how any number of metrics are created, and usually, the writing associated with these pieces is below the level I expect from a pay website.
The other side of the coin is the work done by Sheehan, CK, Jay Jaffe and others, who use and apply the stats, coupled with what's actually going on or went on in the game into analysis that's well-written, timely, incisive, and makes one think. The problem is this group is now down the CK and Jay, which is making it tough to stomach the annual fee.
(There's third element of news gathering and reporting, which Will, Kevin and Perotto do better than most others.)
"I did thanks to Gary Huckabay and Clay Davenport; Christina Kahrl and Rany Jazayerli; Dave Pease and Keith Woolner and Keith Law and Nate Silver and so many other people who built Prospectus in the 1990s."
And with the exception of CK, they're all gone. Too bad. For us.
Disagree. Still think he wants the Yankees to make an offer.
The problem with the Holliday/Bay dichotomy is that it assumes that Holliday would sign a 5 year/$90 million offer. If the rumors that he has a standing 8 year offer from St. Louis are to be believed, why would he take this deal?
The common quip for the 2001 Mets--
Q: Who bats after Todd Zeile?
A: The other team.
Are David Segui and Mike Jackson the worst players to ever appear on a HOF ballot?
The dollars and cents on the deal just don't add up. Keeping Lee cost $9 million, and in return they were guaranteed two draft picks in the 2011 draft plus whatever else he yielded in added value during the year. I doubt these three prospects will come close to amounting to that.
So Seattle deals away prospects to an AL East team for a pitcher? Is this Bedard II?
"At this rate, Gordon will have a stellar second half of his career and people will wonder what could have been, had he put things together sooner. Do we have a name for that kind of career path?"
A Josh Hamilton?
Does anyone else remember when Bud Black's $10 million (or so) contract with the Giants was considered one of the worst signings ever?
The Mets are in roughly the same position now that the Knicks were in 2001. That's scary to everyone in New York.
Missing from the Halladay calculus is the fact that if the Sox don't trade for him, the Yankees are the next most likely suitors.
Where does Flowers rank in terms of catching prospects in general, top 3/5/20?
Well clearly, because that would mean he won Game 7.
"There was Pedro Martinez, back at the scene of some of his best work in Game Two..."
I didn't realize they were playing the World Series in the old stadium.
"But winning a championship isn't something you do by following the path of the other 29 guys. It's something you do by making the right move at the right time to win that game."
Careful Joe--that sentence can be used to justify Joe Girardi's revolving door of pitchers and hitters.
Joe: I agree that it was good that Saunders made the pause to set himself up to try to turn the double play, but the fact is that Jeter should have been called safe. Arguably, this pause should have cost the team the double play.
I think focusing on pitchers' health and using starters on short rest isn't the issue. I think the issue is how effective the starters are on 3-days' rest.
I'd love to see something of the converse of this; i.e., if they did the draft today, who'd go 1-10.
I agree the team shouldn't be in Tampa--they've had 11 years to show they can support a team, and have failed miserably. Move the squad to NC, Oregon, or anywhere else, frankly.
I agree. If Derek Jeter finishes with something like .335, 25 HR, 30 steals, and 110 runs scored, he will get a lot of consideration, especially if the Twins finish well under .500.
How about holding Minaya accountable for having put together a hideous starting lineup beyond the Big Four?
I'm not sure Pudge is wearing any cap to the Hall of Fame, given that the writers will probably brand him as steroid user.
Doesn't the fact that Halladay could demand a trade and thus void his contract this offseason change the analysis of who should trade for him and how much you should give up for him?
I wonder if the packages are that comparable. My observations have been that most people get the MLB package because they're transplanted fans who want to watch most of their team's games, while Sunday Ticket is for people who want to flip around from game to game, often with a bunch of others around.
Not Hillary Clinton in 2008?
My point was they didn't HAVE to DFA him, they could have shopped him for some other sucker (and I'm looking at....you, Omar) and either gotten some payroll relief or a player that's better than Chris Duncan. By DFA'ing him, they forced their hand, and I wonder if it was premature.
Let's not rush to credit the Sox too much here. The trade can only be viewed in tandem with their decision to DFA Lugo, which you could argue, was a mistake, since it basically means they're paying $13 million for Chris Duncan.
What's the alternative? Keep LaRoche and play for 80 wins?
You may have actually identified a pair of decent trading partners. While I agree the Rangers shouldn't put their stud prospects on the market, there's nothing wrong with making minor moves to take a shot at it this year. For example, would it be wrong for them to trade for Jarrod Washburn if the price were right?
I'm a little surprised we got no commentary at all on the Francouer-Church swap this week or last, though I guess it's "meh" enough to warrant no attention.
Heck, how about trading him to the Rockies, and having the Blue Jays take back Todd Helton's horrible contract to offset the blow?
Or just swap Wells straight up for Barry Zito in a pass-the-trash deal, and then try to get some real prospects back for Halladay?
The possibilities are endless.
More compelling is the Rays, who wouldn't pay him as a free agent after 2010 anyway and have better prospects to offer back. Though they wouldn't take Wells.
Isn't this roughly what Boston did by trading for Beckett and Mike Lowell (albeit a lesser albatross and a less good pitcher)? Hanley Ramirez has obviously made it somewhat passable for the Marlins, but Fernando Martinez could do the same for the Blue Jays.
Of course, given that Wilpon lost a quarter of a billion dollars with Bernie Madoff, I don't think the Mets are real contenders to add that much payroll.
What does Chris Tillman have to do to get some love?
Agree with all of the above comments. You kicked off the best writer because a transcription of a radio piece didn't look great. Seems short-sighted.
The All-Star game is an anachronism, a holdover from another era when there wasn't an internet, extra innings package, baseball tonite and fantasy leagues. It was the way you could see players like Roy Halladay and Zack Greinke. We now see these guys every night if we want to. And watching them play against each other, even if there was no interleague play...so what? It's an exhibition, and ultimately a waste of time.
I went to college with a guy that could throw 93-95 but couldn't throw with a lot of control and never made it out of Single-A ball. So while Roddick might have the talent to throw the ball hard, let's remember that there's a lot more to pitching than being able to throw the ball very fast.
Joe, no posting on the NBA draft?
I'm not sure 2 divisions isn't realistic. What if they went to two divisions and kept two wildcards from each league?
About half of that difference is the Marlins' insanely spendthrift ways, though.
Whether or not Martinez can relieve, I think, is somewhat dependent on how long it takes him to warm up, no?
I think Carlos Zambrano may have both Milton Bradley and Fukudome beat.
Is it me, or are we now seeing a weird trend? In the last year and change, the A's, M's and Pirates have all traded their best players (of varying actual quality) for quantity, not quality. I realize nobody's going to deal six-star studs, but why have these teams just acquired depth for kicks?
I'm totally rooting for a tee ball article.
Depends on your league. If it's a keeper league and/or a deep league, it might.
Your point is correct, but it only applies in limited circumstances when you're talking stud-for-stud. If the deal is either a dump for prospects or something like Melky Cabrera & X for Andy Sonnenstine & Y, the identities X and Y definitely matter.
Jeffrey Hammonds is insulted to not be mentioned in this article.
You've got a tough mix in Baltimore: bad economy, hatred for Angelos, and a team that until this year was pretty uninteresting to watch. Throw in the fact that the Nationals have definitely siphoned off the very casual (and lazy) fans in DC who just want to see a baseball game, and it's hardly a surprise Camden is suffering at the gate. Which is too bad, because it's a joy to visit.
What's wrong with doing a round robin in each round and making a provision for a tiebreaker game in the event two teams are tied for the 2nd slot?
Matt Vasgersian will always be Armenian Tean Heartthrob to me.
Why is it being held every four years and not every two? Hasn't the Ryder Cup proven that people will be interested if we do this often enough?
Ah, the 3rd part of the "DVD" trio. Too bad Danks and Volzquez are doing well elsewhere...
This the first fantasy baseball list for left field that didn\'t have Moises Alou since 1974.
Maybe people view it in reverse---that red is the norm and green is the outlier, so the meter is upside-down.
The big problem with the WBC is that we already see most of the best baseball players in the world playing on a daily basis in MLB. It adds little or nothing to add a bunch of nations without top-quality players, save for Japan and Cuba. And if the players aren\'t going to be pushed 100%, then who cares? As much as they\'d like it to be, it\'s not going to be close to Olympic hockey, let alone the World Cup.
I know David Wright was taken by the Mets in the supplemental round when they lost Mike Hampton. I\'ll set the bar there.
I\'m a little surprised someone inking the ageless Doug Brocail (1 yr/$2.75 m) or Russ Springer (1 yr/$3.3 m) didn\'t make this list. Heck, they could just occupy the 40+ division with Amaro\'s puzzling decision to give Moyer two years.
Where would Homer Bailey fit in, if at all?
I 100% agree. The real issue is why Type A free agents include players like Cruz and Cabrera.
The Dunn signing makes baseball sense with one more move, i.e., the Nats flipping Milledge for a player at another position that can help them. For example, a swap like Milledge for Ryan Rowland-Smith would make sense for both teams. The odds of them doing this, obviously, are slim.
The comparison between the top 3 ROTY vote-getters versus PECOTA is interesting, but less helpful to us now, because we have no clue who\'s going to finish in the top 3 of ROTY voting. It\'d be more interesting to see who were PECOTA\'s top-10 rookies preseason and how they did compared to their projections. This of course may include these same 6 players.
Jay, why are there so few 3B\'s in the Hall? Random chance?
Have two sides ever exchanged numbers in arbitration, only to find the club offered more than the player demanded?
Man City isn\'t really the Yankees; they\'ve stunk for too long in a city with another dominant team. They\'re a lot more like the 2000 Angels.
It\'s impossible to be optimistic about the Reds when next year\'s rotation will have Cueto, Volquez and Bailey, and the manager is still Dusty Baker.
That sort of rigidity doesn\'t seem to be productive, though, unless their financial forecasts are grim. They\'d have the chance to pair up him and Sizemore for 4-6 years of their prime, which frankly, could be devastating, and his addition would have a great impact in terms of wins, and in turn, attendance and postseason appearances.
The Victor Martinez issue is potentially a problem, but it doesn\'t strike me as a good enough reason to stay away, because Texieria is in a different league of hitters than Martinez.
Outside of him not wanting to play there, is there any good reason the Indians haven\'t made a strong play for him? He\'d be a tremendous upgrade on their offense and defense, enough to potentially put them near the top of the AL.
I agree that this signing is horrible, but the arbitration part on Burrell is a little tougher to read. First, it\'s unlikely he would take arbitration, and for all we know, they had a handshake agreement to NOT offer him arbitration so he could sign elsewhere and make more money in the process.
Personally, I\'d look into dealing some of the assets here and looking for 2011 as the year to win. However, JP may not have that luxury.
I would sign Pat Burrell for the double effect of (a) he\'s a good player, and (b) the Mets cannot get him out, so they don\'t have to face him.
I have to think the economy is playing a not-small factor here for a lot of clubs (probably not the Yankees). This is probably doubly true in Arizona, who may still be paying millions in deferred salaries from the early 2000s teams.
A big question with Dunn has to be whether or not you think he\'s going to age well. Because if you think he\'ll be an albatross in 2-3 years (a la Richie Sexson), this team would be better off taking a 1-year flyer on Jason Giambi.
I don\'t think I\'m alone in saying that I don\'t care who \"scoops\" a story from the media. I couldn\'t name a single scoop from the past few years, and even if I could, so what? It\'s not going to stop how I receive my news and rumors: from a variety of sources. By contrast, I could tell you that Chris Mortensen is almost always wrong, and that Jon Heyman speaks with such definitiveness about every single thing he writes that it\'s tough to take anything seriously.
Matt Vasgersian should only be referred to as \"Armenian Teen Heartthrob\", from those old 989 sports commercials.
Jesse Helms has been dead for 4 months, so it might be time for an update on the right winger du jour. Maybe Tom Coburn?
Heh. That\'s funny.
I\'m a little surprised Jeremy Affeldt didn\'t make this list.
Call it spin all you\'d like---every metric says the Angels played anywhere from 12 to 16 games better than their underlying statistics, and that\'s with great seasons and health from (basically) their entire pitching staff. They are not likely to repeat last season, and the 24 1/2 game number is an illusion. Again, I\'m not saying the A\'s have closed the gap all the way, they\'re simply in the conversation, and will really be worth taking seriously if they add one more player.
Also, a \"half season of Holliday\" isn\'t correct; if they\'re actually competitive in July, I have to think they\'ll hold on to him and take a run at it.
They\'re out of it already? They were 8 games behind the Angels last year in 3rd order standings. They\'ve added a player that should add 2-4 wins while subtracting nothing. The Angels offense is predicating not only them re-signing Texieria, but also guys like Hunter, Guerrero, Kendrick and Figgins not breaking down again, which is not exactly secure. This move doesn\'t put them over the top, but it certainly puts them in the conversation.
The only qualm I have here is that the idea that the A\'s might re-sign Holliday isn\'t addressed at all. Given that Crosby comes off the books in \'09 and Chavez is \'10, is it too ridiculous to consider that the A\'s might throw something like a a 5 year/$100 million package at him? (Not saying he\'d accept of course, but still...)
There\'s basically four possibilities for the A\'s.
(1) The A\'s, partially because of Holliday, make a run for the division this year.
(2) The A\'s stink, and flip Holliday at the deadline for players/prospects.
(3) The A\'s stink and let Holliday walk and get 2 draft picks.
(4) The A\'s stink and sign Holliday long-term to a reasonable deal.
Assuming (not a safe assumption) that the players they flip him for in return or the picks they get are better than Carlos Gonzalez, it\'s hard to see how the A\'s lose here. All of these options are good and beat having around Street, Smith and Gonzalez.
I don\'t disagree that the Marlins did themselves well to get rid of Willingham and Olsen before they got expensive. What I do find hard to believe is that this is the best they could do. If they were simply content to stockpile young players or bench warmers, I feel like a team like the Mets or Astros or Twins, all of whom could use Willingham as at least a 4th OF, would have been able to top this offer.
What\'s the order of tiebreakers here? If you get the dollar amount right but the team wrong, are you out?
Brewers, 4/113, 11/24.
There\'s a story I heard about a famous player that switched teams a few years ago; while the media and fans lambasted him for taking the money and running, the truth apparently was that his wife said she and their kids were moving to State X, and it was up to him to join them or find another family. He moved. I think there are a lot more decisions like this than we\'d like to acknowledge.
Axl Rose is a much better analogue than Amy Winehouse, who at least is still talented. Rose, like Pavano, at one point was good, but is a disaster now.
This strategy only works if you have daily moves. If you\'re in a head to head league or have weekly moves, these guys kill you because you have to put other decent starters on the bench.
Nationals: Disband. Or build for 2017.
I\'m not so sure that by the time the playoffs rolled around the Dodgers were worse than the White Sox, given that they had added Ramirez and gotten Furcal back from an injury, while ChiSox were playing without their best hitter, Carlos Quentin.
Not to be a wiseguy, but I presume you mean baseball-related \"worse recent memory\". Playing right after 9/11 and the Reds playing Opening Day after John McSherry died on the field are both probably worse than what happened to Tampa last night.
That aside, great job.
Especially given that this means he\'ll have both Kershaw and Maddux as long relief in Game Four after Lowe hits ~90 pitches, barring some 13-inning mess in Games 1-3.
Joe: I think the solution to \"solving\" the NLDS is to simply make them best-of-7. Frankly, I\'m surprised this hasn\'t been done yet, unless the players are balking at the possibility of playing 2 more games.
Now, if we could convince MLB to go back to best-of-nine for the World Series with minimal rest....
Which is more ridiculous: that the Cubs are 3-1 favorites to win the World Series or that the White Sox are 18-1? In the baseball postseason, nobody should be 18-1, unless they won a division by going 75-87.
I think Manuel was annoyed that Murphy bunted with two strikes, which is inexplicable. So was having him bunt to begin with.
Nationals and Rangers swap Lastings Milledge and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
One more, sorry if there\'s a limit on these (too much fun)--Yanks send Robinson Cano to the Twins for Michael Cuddyer and Boof Bonser.
Rich Hill would strongly disagree with you giving Bailey that award.
Assuming these teams would be okay with trading in their own division, the Royals send Mark Teahen to the Indians for Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey, and a B-/C+ prospect (David Huff?). Shores up the Indians 3B problem better than Marte will at no cost to their team for next year, while the Royals get three not-starts-not-awful pitchers for the system, much like the Pirates in the Nady/Marte deals.
When we say \"realistic\", is that supposed to take into account the predilections and relative intelligence of the respective GM\'s? For example, should any trade involving the Nationals automatically be lopsided towards the other team?
I can\'t see Pavano coming back. From all indications, he isn\'t well-liked by the team.
As a 31-year old Met fan who wishes he had 1/10 of the good memories that Yankee fans his age did, I can say that I will not miss any physical part of Yankee Stadium; it\'s really not the most charming place in the world how it was renovated. But it\'s where enough baseball history occurred, both in the Coolidge administration and Clinton administration, that you have to be in awe of the site if you even just tolerate baseball.
Frankly, I\'m still not sure I get why they didn\'t consider simply razing the building, having the Mets and Yankees sharing a stadium for 2-3 years, and rebuilding on the same footprint a new stadium. It\'s not the architecture that\'s historic, it\'s the site.
I\'ll buy that \"momentum\" as a separate being does not exist. I\'ll counter, however, that streakiness for individual players does exist, and that when enough players go on streaks in one direction or another, that creates \"team streaks\", which create something that looks like momentum, but is really just a collective group getting hot or cold at the same time. So why have the Dodgers been hot for the last 8 games? There could be a thousand reasons for that ranging from a batting coach figuring out half the lineup at once to the players not being hungover for 8 straight days to just dumb luck. These are humans, not machines that spit out numbers. It\'s tough to not lose sight of that fact.