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Sorry if I missed this before, but have you looked at how a pitcher missing their spots affects the results? A lot of the bad frames seem to be when the pitcher surprises the catcher a bit (even in the zone) and the catcher is unable to disguise this. Of course, that has something to do with catcher skill, but not completely. Is there a way to separate this?
These articles are great. Any chance you release one for the Astros?
Fascinating. Thank you for the insight.
Wait...not to defend J.D. Martinez...but he plays left field! The right fielder there is left-handed and I assume is Brian Bogusevic. Your 1B culprit looks like Steve Pearce.
I love this feature. Keep it up gents!
Maybe I missed this, but is there any chance that the game of the week will be identified ahead of time?
I don't know. The screen was blank anyway, right? I love this content, and if putting an ad on the screen means it continues and/or we get more of it, I'm fucking ecstatic. And I'm happy for BP that they can continue to provide this badass writing from all of these contributors.
This is great. The photos were very helpful in illustrating your points. Looking forward to future articles.
Great news all around. Thanks for making BP awesome!
From a descriptive standpoint, this is your best "What Could Go Wrong in 2012" yet. Great stuff.
Going to go watch Real Genius and then come back and read this...surprised there's no Martin Kove in it. But at least it has Kilmer.
I think the salary arb stuff is fascinating. Please keep writing about it.
On your first two tables, I think the labels of Full Season TAv and TAv vs. "Weak" need to be switched. Very cool article.
Cool article. Any plans to do one about prospects whose stock fell this Fall/Winter?
My favorite line:
"His beloved soccer match is about to tiptoe back into our lives; the players are walking back out onto the field. He tells me it’s called a pitch. Sometimes I wonder which planet I’m living on."
And, very excited about the choose your own adventure series.
This comment is funny because it could be part of the interview.
These are a lot of fun. Do you plan to do them for every team?
These stories are crazy. What is striking to me is how rarely it actually works out well for the player, at least in a baseball sense (Boras is obviously the master at getting them more money). This leads me to wonder if things work out rarely because prospects work out rarely, or if these tactics leave a sour taste in players' and teams' mouths that hinders development and production.
It's not exactly the same, but these negotiation tactics make me think back to your Up & In interview with John Coppolella where he said that players who go all the way to arbitration rarely end up signing with that team once they are a free agent. These scenarios involving the draft seem even worse--a rift is already established before the player even joins the organization.
Either way, I think there's a fascinating question here for young players--use the tactics to get more money up front, regardless of development--or sign as quickly and painlessly as possible and get on the field. I can't say I blame any of them for getting the money up front. For most, it will probably be their only chance to do so.
This is great. I love your point comparing the great GM to hitting .400. Fascinating and well thought out.
So, what do you know about Jeff Luhnow? Any plans to do a little write-up on him?
That could go both ways though. He was pretty vocal in saying that he wanted to remain in Houston, and wanted to go there this year before signing with the Cards.
Is part of the solution to this dilemma knowing your sources well? Let's say you've been talking to a particular scout for years, and by then you could evaluate their strengths and weaknesses in player evaluation. If you know this scout tends to miss on kids with certain skills and overrate players with other skills, could you take that into account when processing their information?
Which is not to say that you would change or edit their information when presenting it to readers, but that you might be able to filter some of it out? I'm sure you already do plenty of this, but I'd love to hear to what extent this sort of scout evaluation factors in.
Awesome Doom reference.
I feel like I have to disagree with you on CJ Wilson losing value if he signs elsewhere. Sure, he may lose the run support that could provide wins, but he also, as you mention, doesn't have to pitch at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. This year, despite having an xFIP of 3.27 at home (compared to 3.53 on the road), his home ERA was 3.69, compared to 2.31 away. He was seemingly a better pitcher at home, but the ballpark killed him. I think a move to a better ballpark makes him more valuable, despite any losses in run support. Very cool article though, I liked your points on Feliz and Adams.