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If I was Derek Jeter, I don't think I'd want to talk about it either.
Do you see the Brewers' biggest concern being: 1) Their ability to consistently score runs; 2) The health of their SP; or 3) The bullpen?
WHat's the story on Tommy Hanson? I see he's on the Bereavement List, but not entirely sure why or for how long...
So, aside from the obvious point of 'not dropping a guy', what are your thoughts of sitting someone like CC until May 1? Obviously, you lose some IP and some K, but you could avoid further damage to the ERA and WHIP. Or, are you more of the thought that you don't draft a guy like CC only to have him on your bench for a sixth of the season?
At Miller Park, you're guaranteed a game and 37,000 people who will listen to anything after tailgating for three hours pregame...
Any guesses as to the logic of not taking Ryan Braun higher than 4th anymore? Surely, the belief was that he was under so much strutiny last year that his stats were of 'clean' ability...what changes with his name on the list? He doesn't appear to be at serious risk of suspension...
Simply terrible...good night ya'll.
The assertion on Sept 10 was that if Milwaukee went 16-6, there was a fairly reasonable set of events that could play out...resulting in MIL making the playoffs...let's chech for an update.
ATL has clinched the first Wild Card, as expected.
PIT, for all intents and purposes has fallen out of the race.
LAD is tied with the Brewers, 3.5 games behind STL. They have a game left against SD, then 3 against each COL and SF.
MIL has gone 11-4, including sweeps over ATL and PIT. With one game left against CIN and 3 each against HOU and SD, it could nearly be expected that MIL wins at least 5 more, thus going 16-6.
LAD and/or MIL going 5-2 to finish, though, means STL must go 1-5 or worse in their finish against WAS and CIN. Those two series are in STL. While 1-5 is unlikely, it is possible for them to lose twice in each series, thus going 2-4. In that event, either MIL or LAD could still have one hot week, winning 6 of 7 (MIL could beat CIN today, sweep HOU, and take 2 against SD, for instance) and get that one-game play-in against STL. While not essential, unless MIL and/or LAD has plans to sweep the final 6 games, both teams need to win today. We shall see...
The Brewers have 2.5 games to make up and have 10 games to do it (STL has 9 games left). The good news is that the Brewers, thus far, have weathered the ease of STL's schedule. STL plays HOU, WAS, and CIN in their final three series, while the Brewers have CIN, HOU, SD, and their final game with WAS today. It would seem that the Brewers have the easier schedule.
It is completely plausible for STL to win 2 of 3 against HOU and lose 2 of 3 against WAS and CIN, thus going 4-5 to finish.
It is also plausible that the Brewers win today, take 1 of 3 in CIN, and 2 of three against HOU and SD, thus going 6-4, which only gains them 1.5 games. So, the Brewers need to win today, and either win the series in CIN or sweep one of the series against HOU and SD to work into a tie.
It could happen, but with each passing day, it becomes more difficult...Go Brewers!
In the three team scenario, I should add that LAD would host STL, with the winner going to MIL.
The fun scenario for STL and LAD in this scenario is playing four games against four teams in four days in four cities (LAD, MIL, ATL, WAS/CIN). At least those cities are fairly sequential from west to east!
Unofficial tiebreaker scenarios (by my calculations):
If STL and LAD are tied: LAD hosts (6-5 record against STL)
If STL and MIL are tied: STL hosts (9-6 record against MIL)
If LAD and MIL are tied: MIL hosts (6-1 record against LAD)
If STL, LAD, and MIL are tied: MIL hosts (.545 record against STL/LAD)
So, the Brewers have, essentially, pulled even with LAD, as they are now even in the loss column. More completely, the Brewers control their destiny against LAD...and against every team except STL. Unfortunately, the schedule and current standings continue to support the notion that STL will still have to finish the 'collapse'.
What would the tiebreaker scenario be if STL, LAD, and MIL all end the season tied? I believe STL would host MIL if just those two are tied. I believe MIL would host LAD if just those two are tied.
Beating the Pirates is expected, for two reasons: 1) PIT has been bad recently; 2) Last night was the 9th time out of 13 this season that MIL has beaten PIT.
Unfortunately, STL beating HOU was also expected. I thought HOU had a chance in the 7th, but that was squandered. We really only need HOU to win once, but even if they don't, the sweep by SD last week essentially gave a game, so a sweep of HOU at home for STL isn't the worst for the Brewers...as long as they sweep PIT.
The double header today between LAD and WAS will be quite telling for LAD.
Yesterday was the last off day for the Brewers. For a little perspective, Wisconsin bleeds green and gold. The Brewers (before 2008) were a way to get through early summer, and once training camp began in Green Bay, the Brewers were an after-thought.
In 2008, though, when MIL made its first playoff appearance since 1982, the NFL regular season essentially failed to begin until about Week 5, after PHI eliminated MIL. That truth has remained each season since then. And, just when it seemed as though Wisconsin would return to the 'old normal', with the Packers needing to fill our hunger for good sports right away in Week 1, the Brewers made their run.
The Packers have benefitted from the lack of full-season pressure the past few years, and the relationship between these two teams can be most-clearly seen in the friendship between Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Braun.
Maybe such a relationship between two professional franchises exists elsewhere, but I'm currently at a loss for where that is. Wisconsin currently boasts the NFL MVP, NL MVP, Miss Wisconsin, and two-time Big Ten Champs in football...not bad.
Go Brewers! We'll see you when you get back home!
Given the upcoming schedule for STL, I was okay with the idea that they might lose yesterday...but they didn't, so now, as a Brewers fan, we need CHC and HOU to take at least 3 of the next 9 against STL.
For MIL, the hot streak continues, and a day off precedes a 10-game roadie. If they can sweep the lifeless Pirates, a premise of the original article, they could go 7-3.
Really, outside of STL, LAD, and MIL, WAS has a TON of control in this race, playing LAD now, MIL this weekend, and STL next week! It'll be a good measuring stick for their postseason readiness as well as shaping who they might see at some point.
A win today, and MIL keeps pace with the STL/LAD winner...be series starts tomorrow with PIT!
You can't win 'em all, right?!? The good news was PIT losing again, and LAD beating STL to split the first two. The Brewers can I'll-afford another loss to NYM at home this weekend, though. Go Crew!
PHI losing helps the Brewers, and STL winning means I'm cheering for LAD to get at least two this weekend.
Hopefully the first day off in three weeks for MIL doesn't halt the momentum! Looking for a series win at NYM!
So, at this point, it seems to be getting serious. And, rather than me simply updating you, Larry, on what happened last night (as if you're unaware of the results), I'll ask a question:
Every couple/few years, it seems as though there is either a team that gives up a lead or a team that makes a late run. How often, if ever, has it happened that EITHER three teams collapse (as STL, PIT, and LAD are doing) OR two teams make almost-miraculous runs to the postseason (as MIL and PHI are). Multiples teams collapsing and/or thriving surely is less common than one team doing it, right?
Tonight, for your tracking pleasure, LAD hosts STL and PHI also plays.
I will continue to post on this page every day until it becomes clear that the Brewers are actually out of the race. In the event that the Brewers complete the improbable, I request a fan interview, or something on that level in recognition of my fandom and continued dedication to this pursuit!
Last night went perfectly as well!
ASSUMPTIONS: MIL sweeps ATL and PIT and goes 10-6 in other games (thus finishing 16-6, based on going 15-5 in the 20 games immediately prior to this article)...ATL does not finish 1-14 or 0-15...STL, LAD, and PIT split games between each other (ATL wins 2 vs PIT).
NEEDS/VARIABLES: PIT, LAD, and STL all need to help the Brewers when not playing each other.
PIT, after losing twice to CIN, now would need to finish 11-4 or worse in games not played against MIL or ATL.
LAD, after losing last night, needs to finish 8-8 or worse in games not played against STL.
STL, after losing twice to SD, now would need to finish 7-9 or worse in games not played against LAD.
The Playoffs Odds Report now gives the Brewers a 0.5% chance!
Good news: Last night went perfectly! Here's to another great day!
The Brewers have just gone 15-5 in their last 20 games. So, for the purpose of this conversation, say they go 16-6 in their last 22 (continuing their current streak), with sweeps against ATL and PIT, they would need three of the following four things to happen: ATL is 1-14 or worse, STL is 7-11 or worse, LAD is 8-9 or worse, PIT is 11-6 or worse.
The Braves will not go 1-14, so forget that option.
The Pirates going BETTER than 11-6 in those games is unlikely, to the favor of the Brewers.
The Dodgers play at AZ, WAS, CIN, and SD, and have a home series against SF. They could surely lose 9 games in there, to the favor of the Brewers.
The Cardinals are the difficult one to get. They do, however, finish the season against WAS and CIN. And, while they play HOU twice and CHC once, two of those three series are on the road. If they lose 2 games in each road series (SD, HOU, CHC) and 2 games against the better competition (WAS and CIN), they just need to lose once in their home series against HOU and the Brewers could get in!
I can see all of these scenarios playing out, except one: the Brewers actually going 16-6 to finish...
Correct. More accurately, I should have asked what TOPIC or SET OF CLOSELY RELATED EVENTS has attracted 100+ comments...btw, I thoroughly enjoyed the podcast. Finding two people that can 'chat' about baseball (or football for that matter) for a couple hours without long pauses, boring periods of time, etc., is very difficult. Thank you for the great work you do.
What was the last article/announcement made on this site that had 100+ comments?!?
Would you recommend shopping Bedard right now, more or less expecting that the indicators of a weakened season are already being seen?
The car fire will have to be recorded for the podcast too, so make sure to bring Goldstein along as an announcer.
People bang on the NL Central every year, and the projection has BOTH Wild Card teams coming from it! Go Brewers!
Any early thoughts on who the Brewers may replace Fielder with, potentially creating a more-balanced, if less-powerful, lineup, yet maintaining defensive qualities needed to succeed?
Do the Brewers become the favorites to win the National League with this level of injury to the Phils and Giants?
I've lived in WI all my life, and have heard Milwaukee called many things: Brew City, Brew Town, Wrigley North, etc...I've never seen/heard/thought/imagined anyone call it Cream City. Where did that come from?