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This article was fantastic. Really professional writing, and kicker.
I like the piece. Simple premis and week executed. Do you have any suggestions of how to better rate and analyze draft classes. I agree with what you said, but I feel the need to codifiy and rank is innate to sports, and inevitable regardless of validity.
Articles like this are why I love this site!
Nice piece of writing. The format of the piece worked well, and I was pleased with the level of analysis. What's ISO by the way. And what are Jeter's ISO intangibles?
Loved the Cain analysis. Interesting stuff.
Great idea and execution. Well done!
Nice analysis. So what's the future hold for the Royals. A bunch of average to slightly above average bats? Or is it a potentially elite line up? Pitching seems like more of a long term question mark. I just wonder when is it going to be "the year?"
Thanks for the great read. Miss the amazing transaction analysis.
Thank you. I was thinking this idea in my head but lacked the ability to express and fully comprehend it. This article is vastly superior to much of the current BP writing. Really liked your style, no corny jokes, just hard baseball analysis. Will check out your website.
Good luck. You're well written pieces were a nice compliment to the dense baseball analysis.
Live the dream!
What fun! for huge baseball dorks at least.
The intro to this piece caught my eye and helped me better understand Japanese Baseball. Nice work!
I'm not as low on the O's pitching as you are. I still like Britton; really think Johnson can be effective as starter with the movement he has on pitches.
Really nice article. One of my fav books. I've often felt people focus on the platonic idea of what a person or team could be to a a fault. You did a eloquent job of providing proof.
Well done article. Long and comprehensive without being rambling. One of the better executed pieces of writing I have read on this fine site.
Darvish may have a higher upside than Wilson, but his lower end projections are much lower than Wilson's. Texas seems like a team in need of low risk investments, since they are already a playoff ready team. Wilson would have cost less, and provided similar Warp projections. Darvish needs to be elite for any deal to work, and I cannot imagine how a team can believe he is a lock to be an ace, since he is changing countries and leagues.
Will Montero be able to be the Yankees Mike Napoli someday. There are obviously things blocking this such as Tex at first, and Montero's lack of defense behind the plate. It seems to me that you do not give up on getting a player ab's at catcher when they can hit like an all star first baseman.
I really like the Bedard signing, this really could be a steal, and the money is low enough to warrant the risks. It's rare to get a pitcher with a high upside for this cheap, even with the health liabilities. I'm surprised a playoff ready team didn't take a gamble on him as an insurance policy.
This deal seems to be reasonable only if he remains the same pitcher he has been the last 4 years; luck and age make that unlikely.
This is a good piece, you should be proud of it. Personally, I come here for the hardcore baseball reporting, but you did a nice job. It's not easy to do this type of piece and please a mainstream and hardcore audience, well done.
Really don't like the Sizemore deal. He is a 29 year old, oft injured outfielder, who might not even be good if he is healthy. He's lost his speed, and he's never been a great obp guy, so his reduced speed and lack of intimidation at the plate will further lower his obp. The worst part may be that if Sizemore actually comes back and is a good player, probably a 2 to 3 win guy, they will have to pay out incentives. I'd like to know the particulars of the incentives but this seems like a lot of money with very little chance at a big return.
Glad you agree with my projection. I've come up with a silly metric to predict value. Guess years, and warp based on past 3 years and personal opinion of player (very slightly). Do 3 projections; most likely return, low return, high return. Account for raises in value per win. Take 3 projections, and determine likelihood. CJ Wilson and Reyes have high highs and low lows forn instance. Times projected value by percentage of likihood of return. I have E Jackson worth 75 over 4. Seems way to high for me.
I predicted his worth at 6 years 90. Anything more than 100 million would be a huge risk. I view Wilson as a high risk, medium reward type of player. He's too old, and lacks the track record to be viewed as anything close to a sure thing. A guy like Buehrle is lower cost and a more predictable return. Or Edwin Jackson, as bland of a choice as he may seem, has ability to improve over the course of a contract, and should only get 4 years. He's more likely to ruin a team financially than carry them to a title.
Great read. Thanks for info. Live this stuff.
I'm not trying to specifically defend Willie B as I watched almost no D Backs games this season, but I don't like judging utility players based on warp. They usually play limited innings in high leverage or injury situations, making them difficult to judge by stats like warp. I thought of Edwardo Nunez as an important piece of the NY team this season, but fangraphs has him at a negative warp.
Normally I disagree with these types of deal, but this one seems to make sense. The Phillies should be in the playoffs many times over the next 4 years, and Papelbon can be a game changer once they get there. There's plenty of evidence suggesting relievers, especially closers, are overpaid for their regular season work. However, in the playoffs, closers pitch a greater percentage of innings, and also in the highest stakes innings. Maybe paying an elite closer is more of a luxury purchase, but it is a purchase teams like the Phillies can afford.
He really deserves little credit as of late. Big market GMs are supposed to sign productive free agents and secure playoff spots. He failed miserably at this. Maybe he will be different with the cubs, but he's not playing with a loaded deck anymore. His secrets are out, and anyone who is valuing his past success has to put this into perspective. Also, not being able to build a bullpen or rotation is a black eye on his legacy. He was sucessful with rhe offense, but big payroll teams should be successful in this part of the game.
Last year's contracts surprised many of us as baseball's economic market shunned the gloom of the US economy. Regardless of what the numbers may suggest, I think GMs would much rather have an elite hitting average fielding shortstop than a elite fielding above average hitting corner outfielder. I think Reyes will continue to be a boom or bust type of player, bust speaking on elite level, and a team with an outside shot of making the playoffs year round should look at spending big on him, think AL Central or NL west type teams. Only one team has to make the big offer, and I think at least one will be willng to go all in for this type of talent at short. Nice read. I hate Crawfish and like Reyes, but reading your article made me realize how biased I'm being about their repsective attributes.
I think Werth made the Nationals look desperate. He's not a household name or elite talent. He's a very good corner outfielder. Are the Nats really going to start competing for FAs every year? After Werth's contract, and the inevitable price increases of their young core, will they have the money. I hate that move, and I see it being more of a bane to their payroll than a boon to their FA outlook. I don't think this deal proved anything except that if you offer grossly exorbitant wages, you can sign a player even if you're the Nationals.
I understand your ignorance is bliss stance, but I would always rather have insight and knowledge rather than blissful ignorance. Personally, I obsess over things and I crave information to feed my obsessions.
Nice article, I think we all as baseball dorks have had a moment with our father where we realized we are watching the same game differently. Mine was trying to justfify drafting Hanley Ramirez, a player he vaguely knew of, first in fantasy. "Dad," I said, "he's like a late 90s Derek Jeter." And then we were on the same page again.
Good article. Can't remember the name but a new book by Jonah Hill (Seth Rogen's biffle) has some praise about how the Rays give an extra percentage point of effort. I found that funny because he's also in a movie about the A's, it's a comedy staring Mr. Bean.
Melville's best. One of his few stories where his narration doesn't get in it's own way, also excluding Typee. Though, he gets in his own way a lot in Billy Budd and that's probably his second best story. Go baseball!
I'd be surprised if this team has an above average Tav at the end of the year. So many medicore position players I cannot imagine keeping this up.
Most people would be happy to be overpaid to under perform; Posada instead feels slighted by the fact that he is being put in the proper place in the batting order. If Posada didn't want to be put into this position than he shouldn't have signed a 4 year contract. Yankee fans and Posada and Jeter, feel they have a right to be overpaid and be given special treatment. I don't disagree with them, but even these amenities have their limits. I don't blame Posada for taking the long term contract, or Jeter for bilking the Yankees out of millions of dollars, but they cannot have it both ways. Posada is not performing hence he needs to be put in the spot in the order where he has the least ability to perform; Jeter is not worth his contract, hence many people think he's over-entitled for signing it. 3 years ago the Yankees needed Posada and they paid him accordingly; presently they don't need him, and they're treating him with more respect than any other team would. Baseball is a business as we all know, and you cannot afford to waste money the way the Yanks have. Maybe Cashman is playing his hand poorly, but I can't blame him for feeling the way he does.
Thanks so much for responding. This is like my dream column, I love any type of baseball analysis about fantasy. I think Tom Gorzelanny might be for real. He's look good the two games I saw. May be a value pick and only owned in 16 percent of yahoo.
Time to cut Drabek for Arrieta?
I love this series. Respected baseball minds answering real baseball questions. Too few places provide this type of product. Sorry it's over.
My fantasy team is in the smoaking section. I hope he can be a nice pick up in a two utility mixed league.
Interested in picking up Wallace. In a mixed league 12 teams with normal team owning 13 and using 10 bats a game. Dunno if he will have value over Bay and Seth Smith who are my uts.
Players who are good offensively are often overrated defensvely: it's called the Derek Jeter Gold Glove theory.
To say the yanks are the only team who can afford to pay two closer salaries is something I strongly disaree with, especially after the money jenks and wheeler got. Now whether the yanks are the only team desperate enough to do this is another question.
Great read. I don't have a problem with teams saving money at the expense of wins, but I do have a problem with a system that allows it; the Rays need to save money any way they can.
Maybe middle relievers are not getting paid too much, maybe they have a skill that metics have not been able to estimate, and teams are snatching them up because closets are now overvalued.
What an amazing idea!
There's never really a great market for SS, but that said, I think given the Mets' financial situation, they should try to resign Reyes at a club friendly price, and if they can't move on. The Mets need renovating at so many positions, that I wouldn't be beholden to a declining short stop.
His value is a bit of a mystery, he's not someone I ever feel comfortable drafting, but I wouldn't write him off as only medicore just yet. In a league where SB's are only one of many categories, I'd rather have Stephen Drew. Is Rollins a better pick than Starlin Castro?
I don't see the yanks holding on to Jesus Montero. They need pitching, they're stocked at catcher, and he's not going to play infield corner. Most teams in my league play with one or two bench guys. Thinking bout drafting Montero and putting him on the bench until he's traded or Posada goes down, or Russel Martin continues to be the player he has been the last 2 years....it would have worked with Posey if I didn't cut him too soon.
James McDonald is getting lots of praise around these parts. I'd be sure to snag him late, but other smart players in my league read this site!
That's a smart way of looking at it, as if you invest in a player like Choo you're drafting him a round earlier on the assumption he will steal 20 bags. My league slants towards power stats, although many of the players seem to ignore this when drafting. It's a head to head league, so maybe I should just ignore steals altogether. Was planning on drafting Choo or Werth early.
Good stats, maybe I'm being hard on him. I hate low ops guys, and I've been burned too often reaching on steals guys. I have always felt he gets too much credit for his nominal power, and not enough criticism for his low obp. Obviously he has value, but I'd dray away and go for a Choo or Werth a little later.
I think speed is over valued. For an elite pick (rounds 1-3) Crawfords only elite at one thing. He's not an average guy, and he's not going to score dramatically more runs than other elite player, but he will have a dramtically lower ops, 30 fewer rbi's, 20 fewer homers....unless a league is really valuing hits and sb's I just think he's not worth getting at the price of deflating all power stats. There is this perception he is an elite player who also has speed. He's not. He's a poor mans Kenny Lofton with a little more pop.
Great article. As someone who lives in New York, I share the Yankees' pain; unfortunately, not their pay checks. I llovd this site because it explores so many elements of baseball.
I'm always surprised when players decide to sign away their free agent years. I don't think players should be solely focused on money, but giving up, in a case like this, 20-30 million dollars, just seems insane. Though, I am not a man prone to risk, and would consider the guaranteed money. Happy for the Reds.
Good article. I've always been low on Crawford. He's great at a few things, but I don't think any team should give up big money for a corner outfielder with a career ops under .800. People have this myth about Rickey that he was stealing 100 bases and putting up 30 home runs, and it's just not true. Still and amazing player though, and my favorite growing up.
This was not a sloppy article, great job. Never looked at the comments on this site before, going to start to now. It's refreshing hearing insight from other readers. Not used to it.