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Yes, Billy would gladly go somewhere else: San Jose.
Nothing in the historical data suggests it is fair to expect All-Star caliber play from a 1st round pick. Further, thanks to Matt Schwartz's BP idol entry on early draft choices (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9013), we know that 1st and 2nd round draft choices have almost a 50% chance of never, ever playing one single MLB game.
Did A's OF Michael Taylor get some consideration for this list? The end result of the Matt Holliday trade, once-top-prospect Taylor is inconsistent, now age 25, and potentially blocked by a crowded, albeit mediocre, outfield, which probably also includes Chris Carter if Barton stays at 1B.
I saw some video of Michael Choice, and was caught off-gaurd by his unusual swing--specifically the dramatic left knee twitch. I realize this is a timing mechanism, but seems to open the window for an inconsistent swing. Is this anything that gave scouts concern, or is it something you might expect the A's to work on with him? Or is it a case of not fixing what isn't broken?
The top is down, and the bottom is up.
Good luck to your dog. What is his/her ERD? ;)
And the Oakland A's have been without a long-term solution in left-fielder for over a decade. I realize the point is overall WARP, not consistency. Nonetheless, it worth noting the A's have had a different opening day left fielder every year since Ben Grieve lumbered beneath Mt. Davis. (Matt Holiday was a pleasant addition for a couple months, but he was never in Billy Beane's long-term plans.) Here's wishing Michael Taylor will start a new era.
Thanks for this article. I'm always fascinated by the Rule 5 selections since I think there must be some degree gamesmanship between rivals. Are interdivisional rivals more likely to select a Rule 5 player from one another in the hopes of taking away that "prospect." A friend and I just had a discussion yesterday about some of the notable/most-successful Rule 5 players we could remember. Our list was short. Without knowing the answer, I posed the question: Who is the all-time career hits leader among Rule 5 players? Career wins leaders? Etc. Again, I don't know the answer, so I'd be interested if anyone in BP community can enlighten me. (I didn't realize Johan Santana was a Rule 5 player, so I'm guessing he's atop most of the pitching categories.)
I agree with the comments above re Teahan. I was shocked to see him in the 3 spot for Chicago. That is not a good sign for the south-siders. Similarly, the Royals are in trouble if Kendall is projected to bat anywhere but 9th in the order (possibly even in interleague play when visiting the NL).
Is that really a typical surgery? I mean, the doctors seem so rough with the patient. This is a common reaction I've had to other operation videos (I've seem people vacuum car rugs with more sensitivity than your average liposuction doctor). Not that I've seen a lot of surgeries, but they always seem poke and tug and scape with more vigor than I would expect. And damn that was a big bone chip, no? He could barely get it out of the incision.
"You've been Milledge'd!" I've got to find a way to incorporate this into my daily conversations.
I, like most BP subscribers, am eager for the PECOTA (Please Endure Constant Online Tinkering and Adjustments) projections, but I am willing to be patient and appreciate the updates from BP such as this. I am not a statistician and I am fairly new to SABRE-metrics, so much of the calculations (or "sausage grinding" to quote Jay Jaffe) still involve a lot of hocus pocus to me. Personally, the PECOTA numbers still have the wonder of a rabbit pulled out of a magician's hat. If said Magician where to announce, "I'm going to pull out a rabbit from this hat . . . No, no, no, that's an elephant. Let me put that back. . . . Ta Da! A rabbit!" I would still applaud the magician and his, or her, magical rabbit. I know there is a different set of standards & expectations for paid content, but in my view BP has done a fine job of recognizing the elephant and informing it's customers of their efforts to correct the PECOTA projections. Thanks, from an anxious, but still very satisfied, customer.
Wagman, being injury-prone is NOT one the things Kouz has turned out to be (hence the green).
Will, Is there a schedule for when you expect to post each team's write-up? Or are they coming in any particular order (i.e., NL East followed by...)? Thanks.
Fair enough, but still surprising to me. I guess I would have scoffed at his 2009 projections then.
Joey Devine has the all-time record low ERA for any pitcher with more than 40 IP (0.59 set in 2008). I know he missed all of 2009, but an ERA over 3 would seem wrong to me.
Do you Joey Devine, whose 0.59 ERA for 2008 is the ALL-TIME RECORD for any pitcher with over 40 IP (since ERA became an official stat)? Why again are you scoffing?
I'm surprised that the tactic of paying over-slot for prized draftees isn't used more often. An excellent example of this was the drafting & signing of Max Stassi by the A's in the 2009 draft. In this case, it's as if the A's traded a 4th round pick for a 1st round pick (sure, they paid a $1.5M signing bonus--a record for a 4th round selection--but they would have paid that money anyway if they had two 1st round picks). The argument that a team shouldn't spend first-round money on a fourth-round pick is nonsense if the team really believes the player in question has first-round type talent.
The trade Ben Sheets analysis makes even more sense when you consider that Josh Outman is expected back sometime in the second half of the season.
Sorry, make that EIGHT-figure.
You must have mis-read the article. Euston mentions "anything less than and EIGHT-year request..."
Am I mistaken, or is A's reliever Michael Wuertz also a free-agent? Did I miss some signing news? Thanks.
Will, Thanks for a great season of UTK. You've won me over with your new expected return date format, and the interview you did with Tommy John and Dr. Frank Jobe would have to make the year-end highlight reel.
Oh my, it's worse than I thought! I'm disheartened to find how much McCarver dictates what stats are shown on the Fox broadcasts. Showing OBP wouldn't confuse the average viewer. It would just confuse McCarver and Macheska. That Pujols/Reyes analogy is ridiculous. But then, McCarver is also the man who said: "Giambi walks too much. He's always clogging up the bases with all that walking." Maybe someone "old school" like Earl Weaver should sit Timmy down to explain the importance of not making outs.
From the world of wiki: Thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) consists of a group of distinct disorders involving compression at the superior thoracic outlet that affect the brachial plexus (nerves that pass into the arms from the neck), and/or the subclavian artery and vein (blood vessels that pass between the chest and upper extremity).
I'm not quite in full panic mode, but I admit to a level of high anxiety re the A's signing Grant Green. My concern is that Boras will be so tied up finalizing his other top 10 picks in the final hour(s), he may not have time to finalize devote to finalizing the deal with Oakland. Is this a legitimate concern?
I'd love to see Padilla get picked up by a NL team. Maybe that would teach him the dangers of using the HBP as a coping mechanism. His last outing against the A's was apparently the final straw for the Rangers. After giving up a long homer to Scott Hairston, Padilla promptly pelts Curt Suzuki (who later got his revenge with a homer). Padilla should know that when he intentionally (yes, it was fairly obvious) beans an opposing catcher, of all people, there will definitely be consequences. In this case, it was Michael Young that received the retaliating HBP. To make matters worse, when the ump gave out warnings, Padilla started mocking the ump, laughing and pointing back at the ump. The whole incident could not have sat well with his teammates.
What I really want to know is how much pain a player is in. Is there a stat for that? Just kidding.
Ah, got it. Thanks, Tim.
I believe another aspect of the success rates for swing vs. no-swing may be the type of pitch that is thrown. Intuitively, it's easier to throw out a baserunner on a letters-high fastball than a breaking ball in the dirt. While a batter may still get fooled and swing on the breaking ball in the dirt, I would hypothesize that some of the difference in success rates for throwing out runners on swing vs. no swing may be attributed to the fact that pitches not resulting in a swing are more likely to be pitches which are more difficult for the catcher to get off a good/quick throw.
RobDeerCoverCred, just click "Chad Bradford" if you'd like. No objections from me.
Even before landing on the DL once again (rehab currently halted), I don't think anyone was going to call the Dodgers asking about Jason Schmidt and his $15 salary. And I agree with JayhawkBill re Lugo.
I liked the article overall. The college vs. high school data and the percentages of those drafted in the sample that made the major, and their success rate was intereting. However, I felt the discussion of mid-seasons trade for would-be stars was an unnecessary diversion, since it was no longer about the draft and there was more draft-related questions that may have been addressed.
No mention of Eric Chavez on the DL, but I guess that's no longer newsworthy. The A's could really use some more production out of the 3B position.