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Just a wag here but maybe they tabbed Gibson as the third starter in order to have him for the home opener. Actual info would be greatly appreciated KG.
Great to have the column back, eases the CK TA withdrawal.
I have become firmly convinced that people actually become addicted to that network. Not just that they enjoy it, but that they find it impossible to stay away for any length of time and will studiously avoid circumstances which would make it impossible to get their regular foxfix[tm].
One of my all time favorites - literally wore out the cassette during undergrad.
Given the economics, if a finite market comprised exclusively of superstars existed, it would eventually yield the suggested result. It seems likely, however, that a higher proportion of players with a lower projected ceiling, (or lower priced role) would in fact comprise the group of potential super-2 individuals who eventually qualify. The data must be out there - I wonder if more middle relievers, 4th OFs, utility IFs, back of the rotation guys earn the Super-2 status over time.
I have not found one customizable to the extent of PFM.
Geez, even as frustrated as I am with BP right now, it makes me feel a little dirty to consider posting more reliable sources ... but being raised Catholic, I guess can just head to confession for absolution at a later date - if warranted.
Unless BP transparently addresses and fixes the PECOTA meltdown, none of the data they have published this year will inform my fantasy drafts for 2010. Just impossible to determine if any of the BP iterations is better or more accurate than the others.
HQ, CHONE, hell even mlb/cbs/espn projections are providing more value to me this year. Particularly the no-charge ones.
~However, it's a lot easier for the designer to work on a project than it is for people, however brilliant, to pick up that project, learn it and improve it without breaking some things.~
This is why I cannot fathom the thought process that resulted in BP's strategy to implement the changes in the manner they chose. PECOTA is, after all, the foundation for all projection analysis done on the site and the signature product for the company. At the least, BP should have run one year of the new system completely behind the scenes while evaluating the performance. As someone relatively risk averse fiscally, there is no way I would have put the brand at risk to this degree.
Simply misleading would be the most generous interpretation I could muster at this point.
So, one must conclude you know not the definition of the word fact nor the current scientific consensus regarding human impact on the CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Likely you know well the definition of hogwash however.
Typical right-wing response, am not surprised. Waaaah, waaah I do not like what you say so leave my sandbox.
Since I took the time to email BP about the issue and received a reply from customer service (for whom I have great sympathy and nothing but positive feedback) I figured I would post their reply to me -
Our crew has been hard at work fine tuning and improving the PECOTA long term projections. We're sorry if there is any appearance of disregard for your concerns. We stand behind the PECOTA projections that have been published so far (both in the BP annual book and the PECOTA Weighted Means spreadsheet and PECOTA player cards.) Our work this week has involved testing and improvements for even greater accuracy. Baseball Prospectus is giving you the best information and we hope you'll see the value within your fantasy league this season.
You'll see an update from our staff shortly. We are sorry for the delay in our communication and we hope you'll reconsider renewing your subscription later this month. Thank you for sharing your comments.
You should understand that the issues with PECOTA have nothing to do with estimates on playing time/lineups/depth charts or any other factor that could reasonably be expected. Your condescending reply has irritated me since I first read it. The continued failure of the BP staff to reply to this issue and the worsening output from PECOTA should make it clear to all but the most foolhardy apologists that the system is broken and the folks at BP do not find their subscribers worthy enough to even address the matter in a forthright fashion.
Completely agree with the above - in tone, in fact and in disgust at the lack of response from BP. Now we have a new update that is ridiculous at best. And nothing but trite responses or denial from anyone involved. I can hardly believe how far and how fast BP has fallen in both quality and integrity and will not hesitate to express this opinion in any/all forums in which I see BP referenced as an authority on the sport.
Perhaps a bpsux.com site is order.
Not that it will impact me significantly as my premium sub will expire this month to not be renewed, but have you taken on more than you can handle Will Carroll? Your tone has significantly changed from last year and particularly so over the last couple of months - not for the better. Personally, dealing with the public would prove trying at best, but you seemed to be much more .... at least cordial in the past.
Do you care to offer any plausible rationale to potentially make this statement less repulsive?
Maybe it is only the league in which I participate, but off-season trade activity is a staple for our long-term keeper league. Would be great to have the information, for which I have paid, informing my choices. Once my premium sub expires, no longer will I support BP with my dollars given the complete disregard the staff has shown - this year in particular but also the late release and terrible performance for PECOTA last year.
Best of luck regaining the confidence of the fantasy public.
Any updates at all on the PECOTA issue since we were told the investigation escalated? Crickets serenading the masses hardly qualifies as customer service here folks.
If the data is flawed, who cares how much of it they put out - other than the folks concerned over the recycled content in the paper that is?
Agreed that this problem started last year (at least) but not with the implied(as I read it) conclusion that the underlying problem has been fixed for this year.
Very disturbing - especially considering the imminence of the season. Comment posts in Unfiltered are not enough of a response and do not hearken confidence in this subscriber that the severity of the problem is understood and garnering the attention it should.
I bought the book for the first time this year - turns out to be an expensive, un-attractive decorative item for the confidence I feel in the data therein. And please do not patronize me once again with the rote platitude "The data in the book is good, trust us." Or focus on the book comments as the foundational value of that product - how many of those comments focus on the data or tell a story around the data? Are you offering refunds, or perhaps re-issuing the volume once PECOTA has been upgraded from useless?
Any reference to PECOTA data, until you've fixed the problem, should be banned site-wide. If Normandin wants to establish his own fantasy rankings, more power to him. Structuring that analysis around flawed PECOTA severely limits any credibility his analysis may otherwise have provided.
Rephrasing the question asked above - why the terrible strategic planning in allowing this problem to first surface so close to Spring Training and prime fantasy baseball draft season? Who made the determination to completely overhaul the cornerstone of the BP franchise and publish the book based on data emanating from a system that had not been vetted?
I sincerely hope you all address this issue with the vigilance it deserves. Apologizing to the folks I have turned on to BP over the last couple of years is not a favorably anticipated endeavor.
Marc - sounds like you're convinced Wallace will play 3b for Toronto but I seem to recall the talk out of Blue Jay camp focused around a 1b future for him. If Encarnacion flops, are you saying the Walrus mans the hot corner (woo-hoo keeper value) or that some other lineup iteration will result in more PAs headed his way? Bautista to 3b and Wallace at DH most likely?
For me, PFM was the gateway drug to BP. I have enjoyed both the dynamic statistical analysis and creative writing since becoming a member, but at the core BP is still most valuable to me as a tool to win some decent cake competing in fantasy baseball.
With the disconcerting(and as yet unresolved*) issues regarding PECOTA, this is definitely some most welcome news. Given the late March re-up due on my premium sub, it sounds like I'll get to see some of the product before handing over a pair of 20s. So far though, it sounds like BP is heading in a positive direction and will convince me to stay on through the year rather than walking away cold turkey or dropping to a March/April fix alone.
* I know more is expected for later today.
Nice - my thoughts nearly exactly. I do suggest a more efficient and ecologically sensible alternative to sending Marc on a coast to coast hand-hold for draft days nationwide - video conferencing.
Shouldn't you be a Yankees fan then? Or am I missing the sarcasm?
Surprised to see zero projected ABs for Jennings this year. Seems like he's a lock to at least get the Sep look-see in '10 with a probable starting role in '11 unless he collapses this year. Is that a likely adjustment we'll see in the dc as ST progresses?
Definitely not an expert, but am a local who has researched the question since the internet forecasts began touting Matusz as the likely O's target for the '08 draft. Sorry for not providing a link, but the video I did find pre-draft showed his front leg in a flexed position at impact and then straightening - which I understand minimizes, if not eliminates, any threat of increased injury risk. Also, from both live viewing and reviewing video from his MLB time, it appears Matusz does not exhibit the tendency, or at least not to such a noticeable extent. Maybe it a was a short term thing in college, or a small sample size effect from the available video or something that Matusz consciously addressed, but for this die hard Bird fan that is not one of the concerns going forward.
Erbe is a different story IMO. As a star in the local prep-school league, Brandon could provide a huge boon to the Orioles' reconnect to the community efforts. Hopefully, the arm troubles will recede to memories and higher level instruction will induce him to solidify the mechanics.
It's a boost the O's deserve after the years and money Peter Angelos invested in building the D.C. area fan base in order to compete market wise with the NESN Sawx and YESkees - efforts only to be rewarded with a thank you punch in the gut by Selig. Nothing expresses appreciation for rekindling interest in the game in a long dormant city like plunking down an expansion franchise in the now lubricated broadcast area.
25 inches on the ground and now the weather-peeps are saying up to 20 more Tuesday into Wednesday. Please tell me good news is on the way in the form of new PECOTAs. My inner Jack has been stirring.
No doubt alskor, and here I thought that working to determine true talent levels was an exercise in eliminating the noise of inherently unpredictable factors manifest in playing the games. Otherwise called luck.
"He’s just such a caring individual; guys are more than just players to him. He’s got that little—especially with young players—father mentality of trying to help build them up, and raise them up, to be quality men and ballplayers."
And how am I supposed to "hate" the dreaded Sawx and their fans when they invade our town this summer after reading this statement. Made me pause for a moment and remember that this life is not merely about winning or losing in baseball or business, but how much love we can share along the journey. I'm going to hug my sweetpea and then call my Mom.
Definitely writing in a much more patient manner than I exhibited in my drafted but not submitted comment.
Kudos for the stand up responses from you good folks at BP and the timely updates on rectification.
I have to agree with the above comment, particularly given the national attention (on the interwebs at least) to the PECOTA projections as soon as they are released. At least three of the local team message boards have in depth, PECOTA-spawned discussions on the Birds' early edition 79-win season.
The majority of people on those boards are getting their first exposure to BP analysis. With a big "beta" bow-tied on the front of the PECOTA first edition, the tenor of those discussions would surely reflect a more positive impression of the BP work.
Not correct - checked the fantasy homepage and updates mere made as of 1/27 for PFM, dcs and weighted means spreadsheet. Hoo-freakin'-ray!
posted in the wrong spot - apologies folks. bring on the PECOTAs.
Definitely incorrect - just looking at the O's dc shows me updated numbers on Jones, Reimold, Weiters, et al.
Probably outside the realm of what you folks are considering, but there is a lot of potential here if you develop it properly. Tie this in with previous suggestions on technical upgrades and a real monster might develop.
Speaking of tech upgrades, BP and fantasy - any way to make PFM feasible for draft day use would be be worth an extra 14.99 in my book. The fantasy community is huge, growing, and willing to spend money to feed their addiction. Maybe we offend some of the baseball purists out there, but that's no reason for BP to not engage in ways to develop it's presence in said community.
Excellent analysis KG - Howard and Utley whiff notwithstanding. While the Sawx are hated in BMore this is the reason they are so much more enjoyable to me than the recent additions of the Yanks. Ignoring Tex, adding LaPorta and Alvarez to that system would exponentially increase the cringe factor for the lower payroll division of the AL East.
On a related note, since the depth charts have been updated for 2010 (including Tejada in the O's lineup) will the full PECOTAs be available soon? Just to note, maybe for a pass-along to the techies, the dcs still show a "last update" of 08-09.
Ha - what's to lose? Surely there must be beneficial reasons for Haliburton to have moved headquarters to Dubai, other than Dick Cheney's potential need to avoid extradition (http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/176151/is_halliburton_moving_to_dubai_so_that.html).
Lower tax rates being the obvious motivation for most profit centers, here the capacity to negotiate as a true free agent must weigh on some draft-restricted potential employees of MLB. Rather than accept the competitive restriction inherent in a draft system, why not change locale for a bit?
Indeed, he did:
Clay used a low A comp for the Cuban league which yielded a rather unbecoming, and ominous, career NRA of 6.66 and a best performing, age 21 comparison of Oliver Perez. Mostly, arms converted rather quickly to relief (Fuentes, Linebrink, Mi. Gonzalez).
The question then becomes the degree of your faith in the low A comp for translation purposes. Unfortunately, the Davenport piece does not provide any other comparative translation, i.e. assuming a high A degree of difficulty.
Wow - understood on the difference in the negotiating capacity, but just wow on that multiplier. Did not expect at least twice the expected value on Strasburg, based on current valuation reports re: Chapman. Maybe the workout will trigger an explosion in the bidding, but to extrapolate from your estimate, I wonder how close the Strasburg team came to re-upping for the next go around.
I wonder how restrictive the language in the CBA is regarding expats. Maybe we'll see a similar tact to skipping college to play overseas for a year before the NBA draft.
Thanks for the update Kevin - look forward to hearing more after the session Tuesday. Do you agree with a slightly-above-Strasburg open market valuation based on the upside? Would adding Chapman to the Orioles' system put a new name atop their Top-11? Daring to dream, but that would certainly round out the developing cadre of arms very nicely indeed.
Any rumblings about Brent Clevlen (Det) or thoughts on his potential as a lefty-hurting, occasional fill-in outfielder? Does his glove play enough for the fourth-of tag? He'll be 27 next season.
Yeah, I'm another who enjoys the word chops usually displayed in this series. Have to say that overall the bit on the Orioles needed an extra edit before publication; typos punctuate the clunky phrasing. A display of late season fatigue Christina?
With all respect and more than a bit of tongue-in-cheek.
Enjoyed the chuckle - thanks for the analogy.
Occurs to me it would be a more apt comparison in a discussion regarding the Pirates though.
errr, Sano that is. Damn you and your phonetic assistance McDaniel.
A little late to this party, but could you expound on the Orioles' possibly signing Cano? Would be a bold move for AM and company. The organization could use some thunder at the hot corner for sure, especially considering the Rowell position change. Given the Hobgood "value" pick, seems like a good fit to me.
Add my name to the list of MLU fanatics, thanks for the new Kevin. Do you foresee a promotion for Carlos Santana this year? ETA in the bigs? Do you anticipate Cleveland moving either of their current duo before the deadline this year?
Palmer does it from memory. Not the most humble guy, and not particularly enjoyable in person, but he sure makes the O's games more entertaining from the booth.
Joe - great read and couldn't agree more with your post-sausage regret at the flailing attempt to improve upon Boog's offerings. Silliness can be forgiven, but that move borders on depravity.
Wondering why no mention of Guthrie in assessing the future rotation or potential trading chips. His performance in the AL Beast the last two years would warrant some respect in my book and he is younger than Koji. Hoping just a missed piece and not a reflection of your opinion.
Also, any thoughts on Huff and whether we can expect him to don the orange and black next year. Whatever the reason - fatherhood, comfort, something else - he has definitely been a boon for the Birds this year.
Stick to your guns in the face of the doubters - Andy MacPhail has Angelos' confidence and a plan that has us long-suffering faithful daring to dream. Grow the arms and buy the bats to fill holes - asbestos class action money spends like any other greenback and once the young guns start sniffing the bigs, the FA market will open for Angelos' wallet once again.
Maybe I'm missing the sarcasm, but you couldn't be more wrong about A.J. From last year to this, the development in his approach at the plate belies his age. Add the for real power surge that corresponds well to his long term trend lines and you're looking at a special bat. And in case you've missed it, the speed and defense are both positives.
Batting between Roberts and Markakis has certainly helped, but the maturity has impressed me and the off-season work in Az with BRob is paying dividends. Too bad for the foot injury last year, he was just starting to groove at the dish and the missed time would surely have accelerated his development. Folks from the Emerald City will regret that deal for years to come.
At least a third, and I'm sure more. Well done with the article, looking forward to future endeavors.
Unless the overall PT for a player changes, I do not think the PFM will reflect an assignment to the minors.
Fans of the Orioles would love to forget the past decade plus of mediocre to poor performances and bask in the glow of a playoff run. Fortunately, to this point in his tenure, Andy MacPhail has had control of the wheel and is turning the ship around through shrewd trades and a revitalized scouting staff.
MacPhail's leadership blends well with Dave Trembley's tilt toward defense and speed with good pitching and a couple of big bats as a winning formula. It seems like an old philosophy, revamped by the new Rays, gaining traction again. Maybe baseball is inherently cyclical and the natural shift away from the recent power years continues and flourishes.
Agreed. But am heartened that we are a dynamic species and that this experiment called The U.S.of A. has prepared us to move forward, individually and collectively. We can evolve from policies proven not only to fail in their stated ambitions, but to cost more than could possibly be accounted.